Information Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET
The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. CTP-ISW publishes the Iran Update daily.
Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of assessed control of terrain in Syria, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. The Syria map is updated daily alongside the static Syria maps in this report. CTP-ISW ended daily maps of Israeli ground operations in February 2025.
Click here to see ISW-CTP's interactive map showing the total strikes in Iran since June 12, as well as an interactive timelapse showing the strikes day-by-day.
Key Takeaways
- Senior Iranian leaders have continued to underscore that they will not stop uranium enrichment and that the United States will need to “convince” Iran that the United States will not resort to force with Iran again. It is unclear what will be required to “convince” Iran.
- Israel struck an Iranian facility on June 16 that is tied to Iran’s nuclear and chemical weapons programs. The Israeli strikes probably destroyed areas used for plastic explosives production.
- Likely Iranian-backed Iraqi militias launched one drone, probably targeting US forces at Erbil International Airport in Iraq. No militia has claimed the attack.
Senior Iranian officials are reiterating red lines for Iran’s nuclear program ahead of planned nuclear negotiations with the United States. Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Majid Takht Ravanchi told NBC News on July 3 that Iran is open to resuming nuclear negotiations but “has no plans to stop uranium enrichment.”[1] Ravanchi noted that the United States will have to “convince” Iran that it will not use force before Iran agrees to engage in talks.[2] White House Envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to meet with Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oslo, Norway, next week, according to two unspecified sources familiar with the discussion cited by Axios.[3] A Tehran-based Western news correspondent reported that preparations are underway for “indirect” negotiations between Witkoff and Araghchi’s meeting, but noted that the meeting has not been finalized.[4]
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated on July 3 that Israel must maintain its air superiority in Iranian airspace to prevent Iran from rebuilding its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.[5] This statement does not appear to suggest imminent Israeli strikes because Iran would need to acquire new air defense systems to replace those lost to be able to deny Israel control of the air. It is improbable Iran could have acquired or built new systems since the ceasefire on June 24, though it is possible Iran could conduct some redeployments if there are surviving air defenses in the northeast. Katz announced on June 27 that he would pursue a policy of “enforcement” to prevent Iran from rebuilding its nuclear or ballistic missile programs.[6] Araghchi warned on June 26 that Iran would respond to any Israeli violation of the ceasefire and noted that “Iran is not Lebanon.”[7] Israel has conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah across Lebanon since November 2025 as part of a stated effort to prevent Hezbollah from reconstituting and threatening Israel under the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement.[8] Araghchi is suggesting that he believes Israel will attempt to conduct similar strikes in Iran to prevent Iran from reconstructing its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
Israel’s June 16 strike on an Iranian facility involved in nuclear weapons testing disrupted Iran’s ability to produce advanced explosive components. Satellite imagery captured on July 1 showed that Israel’s airstrikes destroyed multiple buildings at Iran’s Shahid Meisami Group in Karaj, Alborz Province.[9] The Shahid Meisami Group is an Iranian chemical engineering and research group that is involved in Iran’s chemical weapons program.[10] The group is subordinate to the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND), which played a leading role in the Iranian nuclear weapons research program before 2003.[11] The damaged facilities included a large hangar-type building constructed between 2021–2024 that was reportedly used to produce plastic explosives and advanced materials for nuclear detonation testing, suggesting that the Shahid Meisami Group is involved in both the nuclear weapons and the chemical weapons programs.[12] The Institute for Science and International Security posted satellite imagery captured in July 2022 during construction, which showed a concrete pit on the ground floor and assessed that the pit could support casting operations for plastic explosives.[13] Plastic explosives are used to initiate a nuclear explosion in implosion-type nuclear weapons.[14] ISIS suggested that the facility could have been used for producing the hemispherical explosion systems used for implosion-based nuclear weapons to initiate a nuclear explosion.[15]
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) withdrew all IAEA inspectors from Iran, which effectively ends international oversight of Iran’s nuclear program.[16] The IAEA reported on July 4 that its inspectors left Iran due to safety concerns.[17] Iranian officials and regime-linked media have repeatedly threatened IAEA Director Rafael Grossi, including by issuing death threats, in recent weeks.[18] Iran’s Guardian Council approved a law on June 26 that suspends cooperation with the agency and bars inspectors from nuclear facilities.[19] The bill requires the IAEA to recognize Iran’s right to enrich uranium as a precondition before Iran allows the IAEA to resume inspections.[20] Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei accused the IAEA on June 30 of “mistakes” that had “consequences” and made “bilateral cooperation...irrational.”[21]
Iranian media published footage on June 30 showing construction crews working to repair the runway at the Artesh Air Force 2nd Tactical Airbase (TAB) in Tabriz.[22] Repairs to the base, which sustained at least eight bomb hits on its runway and taxiways on June 12 and 13, should be completed very quickly.[23] The airbase houses three Iranian squadrons: the 21st, 22nd, and 23rd Tactical Fighter Squadrons, that fly the MiG-29 and F-5 fighter jets, according to open-source watchers on social media and the Aviationist.[24] Israeli airstrikes on runways and taxiways enable Israeli air superiority by inhibiting Iran’s ability to launch aircraft to defend against Israeli operations. Iranian aircraft like the F-5 or MiG-29 are unlikely to be able to challenge Israeli air superiority because, if launched, both aircraft types would not be able to detect stealthy Israeli F-35s.
Likely Iranian-backed Iraqi militants launched a one-way drone that probably targeted the Erbil International Airport in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan Region, on July 3.[25] The Kurdistan Regional Government’s Counter-Terrorism Group reported that the drone was intercepted near Erbil International Airport on July 3.[26] Erbil International Airport hosts US forces that are part of the US-led anti-ISIS coalition.[27] The drone did not cause any casualties or damage.[28] No group has claimed or commented on the attack at the time of this writing. Likely Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have conducted multiple one-way drone attacks targeting US positions across Iraq between June 12 and 24.[29] Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have not claimed any attacks during this period, which suggests that the militias may suffer from a lack of discipline among lower-ranking fighters who attempted to independently launch drone attacks on Israel. Militia leadership may also allow fighters to conduct attacks without publicly sanctioning them.
[1] https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-nuclear-trump-talks-uranium-strikes-rcna216689
[2] https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-nuclear-trump-talks-uranium-strikes-rcna216689
[3] https://www.axios.com/2025/07/03/iran-nuclear-talks-witkoff-meeting
[4] https://x.com/SaeedAzimi1772/status/1941052605884723431
[5] https://x.com/Israel_katz/status/1941079137340297704
[6] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/27/world/europe/israel-iran-enforcement-policy.html
[7] https://x.com/ariel_oseran/status/1938344092951298457
[8] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/06/27/israel-lebanon-strike/
[9] https://x.com/TheGoodISIS/status/1940866714209501554
[10] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1200
[11] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1200
[12] https://x.com/TheGoodISIS/status/1940866714209501554 ;
https://www.timesofisrael dot com/shaken-by-depth-of-israeli-penetration-iran-said-to-launch-sweeping-crackdown/
[13] https://x.com/TheGoodISIS/status/1940866714209501554
[14] https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/shock-wave-generator-for-irans-nuclear-weapons-program-more-than-a-feasibil
[15] https://x.com/TheGoodISIS/status/1940866714209501554
[16] https://x.com/iaeaorg/status/1941102218981314885 ;
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-n-pulls-nuclear-inspectors-out-of-iran-for-safety-reasons-b65d84ef?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos1 ;
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-26-2025
[17] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-n-pulls-nuclear-inspectors-out-of-iran-for-safety-reasons-b65d84ef?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos1
[18] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-n-pulls-nuclear-inspectors-out-of-iran-for-safety-reasons-b65d84ef?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos1
[19] https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/1938173802958995930 ; https://x.com/PressTV/status/1938204404081156141 ;
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-n-pulls-nuclear-inspectors-out-of-iran-for-safety-reasons-b65d84ef?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos1
[20] https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/1938173802958995930 ; https://x.com/PressTV/status/1938204404081156141 ;
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-n-pulls-nuclear-inspectors-out-of-iran-for-safety-reasons-b65d84ef?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos1
[21] https://www.presstv dot ir/Detail/2025/06/30/750321/Iran-Israel-abuse-neighbors-soil-aggression
[22] https://www.tabnak dot ir/fa/news/1314555/
[23] https://x.com/bradyafr/status/1934260300603129942
[24] ] https://theaviationist.com/2025/06/13/israel-attack-iran-details/; https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1933462217233739953?
[25] https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2025/07/04/drone-carrying-explosives-shot-down-near-iraqs-erbil-airport/
[26] https://www.thenationalnews dot com/news/mena/2025/07/04/drone-carrying-explosives-shot-down-near-iraqs-erbil-airport/
[27] https://www.newarab.com/news/drone-shot-down-near-iraqi-airport-hosting-us-troops
[28] https://www.newarab.com/news/drone-shot-down-near-iraqi-airport-hosting-us-troops
[29] https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-israel-us-latest-news/card/u-s-forces-in-iraq-intercept-five-attack-drones-I8AYjH2Iv96HcWMRf7MP?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAjfsJajjj4ypcg5EnS3xaVQghNyt2MgpYDQpbld5DaQKeqKaul-pqZl&gaa_ts=6862dbd7&gaa_sig=UJpIvanqU32UYY65_iBP7QLBpwLtAk_GNImW6DEoBdttqpfwWeJHcQ44hoAXB0cWLmuRHb4RIAKWadFGd6Cu5A%3D%3D ; https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-israel-us-latest-news/card/u-s-forces-in-iraq-intercept-five-attack-drones-I8AYjH2Iv96HcWMRf7MP?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAjfsJajjj4ypcg5EnS3xaVQghNyt2MgpYDQpbld5DaQKeqKaul-pqZl&gaa_ts=6862dbd7&gaa_sig=UJpIvanqU32UYY65_iBP7QLBpwLtAk_GNImW6DEoBdttqpfwWeJHcQ44hoAXB0cWLmuRHb4RIAKWadFGd6Cu5A%3D%3D
