UA-69458566-1

Tuesday, October 31, 2023

Iran Update, October 31, 2023

Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna Moore, Kathryn Tyson, Brian Carter, Annika Ganzeveld, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments and in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

  1. Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted indirect fire attacks into Israel at their usual rate. Palestinian militias continued to launch attacks on the Erez military site from the northern Gaza Strip after the IDF advanced from there on October 29.
  2. Israeli forces advanced into Beit Hanoun in the northeastern Gaza Strip to conduct clearing operations. Israeli forces also extended their positions along the coastal line in the northwestern Gaza Strip.
  3. Local media and Palestinian militias claimed to engage Israeli forces moving westward south of Gaza City.
  4. Palestinian militants clashed with Israeli forces at their usual rate in the West Bank. Students held large, anti-Israel demonstrations across the West Bank.
  5. Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted nine attacks into Israel as part of an ongoing attack campaign targeting IDF radar and sensor sites and military targets.
  6. Lebanese Hezbollah and Iran are creating the expectation in the information environment that Hezbollah will escalate against Israel on or around November 3, possibly by increasing the rate of attack or by using more advanced systems.
  7. The Houthis launched drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles targeting Israel, marking the third attempted Houthi attack since the war began.
  8. An unidentified US military official reported that unidentified militants attacked US troops in four separate locations on October 30.
  9. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian traveled to Qatar for further political coordination with Hamas leadership.

 

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

  • Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
  • Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip

Recorded reports of rocket attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip conducted indirect fire attacks into Israel at their usual rate on October 31. The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas’ militant wing—claimed responsibility for 12 indirect fire attacks. The al Qassem Brigades military spokesperson said that the group will continue to strike Israel with rockets of all ranges.[1] Saraya al Quds—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed responsibility for another nine indirect fire attacks. The Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades—the militant wing of Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine—claimed to launch mortars into southern Israel.[2] The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) shot and killed a person attempting to cross from the Gaza Strip into Israel at the Reim junction, which is the first ground infiltration attempt that CTP-ISW has recorded since October 21.[3]

Palestinian militias continued to launch attacks on the Erez military site from the northern Gaza Strip after the IDF advanced from there on October 29. The al Qassem Brigades detonated an IED and fired anti-tank munitions at IDF tanks east of Erez.[4] CTP-ISW cannot verify whether the attacks occurred in the Gaza Strip or Israel. The Saraya al Quds Brigades fired mortars at the Erez site.[5]

Hamas and PIJ leaders boasted about Palestinian militia resistance in the Gaza Strip. A Hamas senior leader Daoud Shihab said the resistance is on the verge of achieving a major strategic victory in the Gaza Strip.[6] Saraya al Quds military spokesperson Abu Hamza stated that the group’s jihad will continue no matter how long the war lasts.[7]

Recorded reports of rocket attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

Israeli Ground Operations in the Gaza Strip

Israeli forces advanced into Beit Hanoun in the northeastern Gaza Strip to conduct clearing operations. Israeli infantry and tanks maneuvered through Beit Hanoun on October 31.[8] Local media reported that Palestinian militias engaged the IDF north of Beit Hanoun.[9] The New York Times noted that lines of armored vehicles traveled on the Salah al Din road running north to south in the Gaza Strip and in the northeastern corner of Beit Hanoun.[10] The al Qassem Brigades attacked an IDF unit clearing a building in the area.[11] The IDF said its forces engaged in fierce battles deep inside the Gaza Strip and eliminated military infrastructure and seized weapons, including IEDs.[12] The al Qassem Brigades military spokesman said that militants have introduced various types of lethal explosive devices to the battle.[13]

Israeli forces extended their positions along the coastal line in the northwestern Gaza Strip. The New York Times satellite imagery showed dozens of armored vehicles cutting through open fields and amassing in urban spaces.[14] Israeli vehicles are seen as far south as the neighborhood of al Karama, according to the New York Times.[15] The Hamas-run Gazan Interior Ministry claimed that the IDF advanced to al Karama from the northwestern Gaza Strip.[16] The Saraya al Quds Brigades launched mortars at IDF vehicles west of al Karam.[17]

Local media and Palestinian militias claimed to engage Israeli forces moving westward south of Gaza City. The al Qassem Brigades, Saraya al Quds Brigades, and al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade attacked IDF forces in the central Gaza Strip.[18] Al Qassem Brigades militants claimed to destroy four vehicles with anti-tank munitions at the Netzarim junction, although CTP-ISW has seen no evidence that these claims are true.[19] A Palestinian journalist claimed that the IDF is operating inside outposts near the al Nour resort and near the Tika hospital after advancing westward from Samouni neighborhood.[20] The Hamas-run Interior Ministry claimed that Israeli vehicles on the Sala al Din road are trying to reach the al Rashid Street less than three kilometers away on the coast.[21] The locations of clashes are consistent with the Israeli-declared evacuation zone north of the HeBesor stream.[22]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

  • Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Palestinian militants clashed with Israeli forces at their usual rate in the West Bank on October 31. CTP-ISW recorded ten small arms clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces.[23] Palestinian militants also conducted three IED attacks on Israeli forces.[24] The al Quds Brigades and the Tulkarm Battalion of the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades conducted a combined small arms attack on Israeli forces in Shuweika near Tulkarm, indicating growing coordination between the two groups.[25] This was the first combined attack between the al Quds Brigades and al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades in the West Bank since October 19.[26]

Students held large, anti-Israel demonstrations across the West Bank on October 31. Students held 14 anti-Israel demonstrations in major cities in the West Bank, including Bethlehem, Jenin, and Tulkarm.[27] These are consistent with the rate of demonstrations that CTP-ISW has observed in the last few weeks.

Senior Hamas leader Daoud Shehab said on October 30 that the al Quds Brigades is “leading the way” in the West Bank.[28] This remark is noteworthy in that it reflects a prominent Hamas official framing PIJ as one of the lead Palestinian militias fighting Israel in the West Bank. The al Quds Brigades has regularly claimed attacks targeting Israeli forces in the West Bank since October 7.[29] CTP-ISW has consistently reported on the close coordination between Hamas and PIJ throughout the war.

 This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

  • Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
  • Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted nine attacks into Israel as part of an ongoing attack campaign targeting IDF radar and sensor sites and military targets. LH claimed four mortar and anti-tank missile attacks on IDF positions in northern Israel on October 31.[30] Unknown militants conducted four anti-tank, rocket, mortar, and small arms attacks into northern Israel as well.[31] Unknown militants also fired two rockets, which the IDF reported did not cross into Israeli territory.[32] The IDF continues to conduct airstrikes and artillery on militants, who are attempting to launch indirect fire from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.[33]

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

  • Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
  • Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

LH and Iran are creating the expectation in the information environment that LH will escalate against Israel on or around November 3, possibly by increasing the rate of attack or by using more advanced systems. LH has released two dramatic videos in recent days ahead of LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah’s planned speech on November 3, which creates the expectation of a significant announcement on the Israel-Hamas War.[34] This speech is significant in that it will be Nasrallah’s first public statement on the war. Iranian state media has further amplified the news of the upcoming speech and the dramatic videos, describing them as a “sign of future events.” Iranian state media also compared Nasrallah’s upcoming speech to the one he delivered at the beginning of the 2006 Israel-LH war.[35] Nasrallah’s speech and the two LH videos come as LH is coordinating extensively with Hamas, PIJ, and the IRGC Quds Force in Beirut.[36] The speech and videos also come as the Houthi movement threatened that it will ”continue its strikes with rockets and drones until the Israeli aggression stops” during its statement claiming responsibility for three attacks against Israel since October 18.[37] Iranian state media has framed the Houthis’ statement as a declaration of war against Israel.[38]

It is possible that Nasrallah will make an escalatory statement on November 3, promising retaliation against Israel but refrain from taking any immediate action different from what LH has been already doing along the Israel-Lebanon border. LH and Nasrallah have used a similar pattern of rhetoric previously. For example, Nasrallah said in April 2023 that Israeli actions in early that year “may push the region into a major war.”[39] LH did not conduct any major escalatory moves in the weeks following this statement. An unspecified source “familiar with [LH] thinking” claimed to Reuters on October 26 that LH does not want Lebanon’s destruction or to see Lebanese civilians fleeing from southern Lebanon, where LH maintains prominent influence.[40]

The Houthis launched drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles targeting Israel on October 31.[41] Israel intercepted the drones and missiles using its Arrow anti-ballistic missile system and fighter jets.[42] Users on social media posted an image showing a destroyed Quds-4 cruise missile in Jordan on October 31.[43] The Houthi movement possesses drones, ballistic, and cruise missiles capable of hitting Israel.[44] This marks the third attempted Houthi attack on Israel since the war began.

An unidentified US military official reported that unidentified militants attacked US troops in four separate locations on October 30. CTP-ISW previously reported that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed two separate rocket attacks targeting US forces stationed at Ain al Asad airbase and Conoco Mission Support Site on October 30.[45] The following text details the attacks that CTP-ISW has not yet reported.

  • Local Syrian and Iraqi social media accounts reported that unidentified militants conducted a rocket attack on US forces stationed at al Omar oil field on October 30.[46] The militants launched between five and 15 rockets at the US position. CTP-ISW has recorded at least five attacks targeting US forces stationed at al Omar oil field since October 18, one of which was claimed by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. Eye of Euphrates claimed that Iranian sleeper cells active in Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-held territory have similarly attacked US forces stationed at al Omar oil field in recent days, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[47]
  • The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a second attack targeting US forces stationed at Ain al Asad airbase on October 30.[48] The group’s statement claimed its forces conducted a drone strike on Ain al Asad airbase and successfully hit their target. Local Iraqi outlet Shafaq reported that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq launched two drones in the attack and that both were downed by the defensive systems at the airbase.[49]

The secretary general of the Iranian-backed Iraqi Badr Organization, Hadi al Ameri, argued that International Coalition forces should leave Iraq in a statement given to local media on October 30.[50] Ameri claimed that there was no longer any justification for International Coalition forces to remain in Iraq to support counter-ISIS operations because Iraqi security forces defeated ISIS at its height in 2015. The United States currently has non-combat troops stationed in Iraq operating in an advisory capacity to support counter-ISIS missions under Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR).[51] Ameri also asserted that International Coalition forces present in Iraq are limiting the growth of Iraqi security institutions.

Ameri argued that Iranian-backed Iraqi militia attacks on US forces were a “natural reaction” to US support for Israel. The Badr Organization threatened to attack US forces in the region if the United States intervened in the Israel-Hamas war on October 9.[52] US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reported that the United States will “take further necessary measures” to protect US forces stationed in the Middle East if Iranian-backed attacks continue.[53]

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian traveled to Qatar for further political coordination with Hamas leadership. Abdollahian met with Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Doha on October 31, marking the second time these officials have met there since October 15.[54] Abdollahian warned about the possible expansion of the Israel-Hamas war, stating that members of the Axis of Resistance “do not necessarily wait for political decisions” to act against Israel. Abdollahian also criticized US calls for restraint, claiming that the United States is “practically a party in the war.” These statements are consistent with the ongoing Iranian information operation to frame the United States and Israel as responsible for any further escalation of the war.[55]

Abdollahian also met with other unspecified senior Hamas officials, Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad al Thani, and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman bin Jassim al Thani during his visit to Qatar.[56] Abdollahian last traveled to Qatar on October 14 following his diplomatic tour to Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria to coordinate with senior leaders in the Axis of Resistance, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[57] Abdollahian will travel to Turkey after concluding his current visit to Qatar.[58]

 

[35] https://www.farsnews dot ir/media/14020808000280/%D9%88%D8%A7%DA%A9%D9%86%D8%B4-BBC-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%88%DB%8C%D8%AF%D8%A6%D9%88%DB%8C-%D9%85%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%B4%D8%B1-%D8%B4%D8%AF%D9%87-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%AF%D8%AD%D8%B3%D9%86-%D9%86%D8%B5%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87; https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/626699/%D8%B1%DA%98%DB%8C%D9%85-%D8%B5%D9%87%DB%8C%D9%88%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%B3%D8%AA%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D9%88%D8%AD%D8%B4%D8%AA-%D8%B8%D9%87%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D9%85%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%88%D9%85%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D8%B1-%D8%B5%D9%81%D8%AD%D9%87-%D8%AA%D9%84%D9%88%DB%8C%D8%B2%DB%8C%D9%88%D9%86-%D9%86%D8%AE%D8%B3%D8%AA%DB%8C%D9%86-%D9%88%D8%A7%DA%A9%D9%86%D8%B4-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D8%AD%D8%B3%D9%86-%D9%86%D8%B5%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%85%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D8%B5%D9%87%DB%8C%D9%88%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%B3%D8%AA%E2%80%8C%D9%87%D8%A7-%D9%81%DB%8C%D9%84%D9%85

[38] https://www.yjc dot ir/fa/news/8585761/%DB%8C%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%B1%D8%B3%D9%85%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AF-%D8%AC%D9%86%DA%AF-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%DB%8C%D9%84-%D8%B4%D8%AF; https://www.mehrnews dot com/amp/5926843/

[49] https://shafaq dot com/ar/

[54] https://www.isna dot ir/news/1402080906855

[56] https://www.hamshahrionline dot ir/news/803332

[58] https://www.hamshahrionline dot ir/news/803332

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 31, 2023

Karolina Hird, Christina Harward, Angelica Evans, Riley Bailey, and Frederick W. Kagan

October 31, 2023, 4:45pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 1:30pm ET on October 31. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the November 1 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov's response to the October 29 antisemitic riots in the Republic of Dagestan suggests that Russian officials may be increasingly concerned about the weakening of authoritarian control in regions on the periphery of the Russian Federation. Kadyrov responded to the riots in Dagestan by praising Russian President Vladimir Putin's accusation that the West orchestrated the situation to destabilize Russia.[1] Kadyrov later called on Chechen security forces to immediately detain instigators of any potential riots in Chechnya or to "fire three warning shots in the air and after that, fire the fourth shot in the head."[2] Kadyrov's reactions to the riots in Dagestan suggest that he is first and foremost concerned with maintaining the perception of his unwavering support of Putin and secondly with demonstrating the strength of his authoritarian rule over Chechnya by threatening a violent response to potential future riots.[3]

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 31. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) and Bakhmut directions.[4] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi to discuss the situation on the front in the Kupyansk, Avdiivka, and Kherson directions.[5]

Russian forces launched a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on October 31. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched four Iskander-M missiles and an S-300 air defense missile at targets in Ukraine.[6] Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration Head Yurii Malashko reported that Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia City with a missile.[7] Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces launched an unspecified number of Shahed-131/136 drones at targets in Khmelnytskyi and Poltava oblasts and that Ukrainian air defenses activated in these oblasts.[8]

Russian authorities detained two suspects for the murder of a Ukrainian family in occupied Donetsk Oblast. The Russian Investigative Committee announced on October 30 that Russian authorities detained two Russian military contract servicemen originally from the Russian Far East as suspects for the murder on October 29 in Volnovakha, Donetsk Oblast.[9] The Investigative Committee stated that the preliminary investigation indicates that the motive of the murders was of a “domestic” nature. A Russian insider source claimed on October 31 that the two detainees were a part of the Russian 155th Separate Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet).[10] Attacks on civilians hors de combat (in rear areas far removed from active combat zones) by representatives of an occupying power constitute a clear violation of multiple international legal norms and very likely rise to the level of a war crime or crime against humanity.[11]

A court in Uzbekistan has reportedly sentenced the first Uzbek citizen to prison for serving as a mercenary for Russian forces in Ukraine. A court in Uzbekistan found an Uzbek man, who reportedly served in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) military from 2014-2015, guilty of violating the Uzbek law against mercenarism.[12] Relatives of the convicted man claimed that he did not participate in the war in Ukraine and was in Russia during the indicated years.[13] This sentencing may heighten tensions between the governments of Russia and Central Asian countries as Russian authorities have increased efforts to coerce Central Asian migrants into Russian military service.[14]

Key Takeaways:

  • Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov's response to the October 29 antisemitic riots in the Republic of Dagestan suggests that Russian officials may be increasingly concerned about the weakening of authoritarian control in regions on the periphery of the Russian Federation.
  • Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 31.
  • Russian forces launched a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on October 31.
  • Russian authorities detained two suspects for the murder of a Ukrainian family in occupied Donetsk Oblast.
  • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted combined missile strikes against Sevastopol and elsewhere in occupied Crimea on October 30.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kremmina line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced near Avdiivka.
  • Former Wagner Group fighters continue to redeploy to Ukraine as part of other Russian formations.
  • Russian occupation officials continue efforts to eradicate Ukrainian language and culture in occupied Ukraine.

 

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports. 

  • Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
  • Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
  • Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
  • Activities in Russian-occupied areas
  • Russian Information Operations and Narratives

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line but did not make any claimed or confirmed advances on October 31. Ukrainian officials, including the Ukrainian General Staff, reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Synkivka (8km northeast of Kupyansk), Ivanivka (20km southeast of Kupyansk), and Nadiya (16 west of Svatove) but did not conduct any offensive actions in the Lyman direction.[15] A Russian news aggregator claimed that Russian forces attacked near Synkivka, Kyslivka (20km southeast of Kupyansk), and Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna) on October 30 but did not specify an outcome.[16] A Russian milblogger claimed on October 30 that positional battles continued near the Serebryanske forest area (10km southwest of Kreminna).[17]

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on October 31. Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Synkivka, Yampolivka (17km west of Kreminna), and Dibrova (7km southwest of Kreminna).[18]

 

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut but did not make any confirmed advances on October 31. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations south of Bakhmut.[19] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut), Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut), and Kurdyumivka (13km southwest of Bakhmut).[20] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces consolidated control over positions east of the railway line near Andriivka and marginally advanced south of the settlement.[21]

Russian forces counterattacked near Bakhmut on October 31 but did not make any claimed or confirmed gains. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Pivdenne (23km southwest of Bakhmut).[22] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces counterattacked near Berkhivka (4km north of Bakhmut).[23] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) published footage purportedly showing elements of the Russian 98th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division operating north of Bakhmut.[24]

 

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Avdiivka but did not make any claimed or confirmed advances on October 31. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian counterattack near the Avdiivka waste heap northwest of Avdiivka.[25] Russian milbloggers diverged in their claims about the intensity of fighting in the Avdiivka direction, with one milblogger claiming that the tempo of operations is increasing while another claimed it was decreasing.[26]

Russian sources continued offensive operations near Avdiivka on October 31 and made confirmed advances. Geolocated footage published on October 30 indicates that Russian forces marginally advanced southwest of Avdiivka.[27] Additional geolocated footage published on October 30 indicates that Russian forces advanced southwest of Krasnohorivka (5km north of Avdiivka).[28] Russian milbloggers claimed on October 30 and 31 that Russian forces are advancing near the Avdiivka Coke Plant immediately north of Avdiivka.[29] A Russian milblogger claimed on October 31 that Russian forces are not actively attacking the coke plant and are still preparing for a ground assault.[30] Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced to the outskirts of the Avdiivka industrial zone.[31] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are also advancing near Krasnohorivka, Tonenke (5km west of Avdiivka), Sieverne (6km west of Avdiivka), Vodyane (7km southwest of Avdiivka) and Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka).[32] One Russian source criticized other sources on October 29 for writing “victorious” reports about the ongoing operation and preemptively claiming that Russian forces have captured certain positions, suggesting that some Russian correspondents still have a negative perception of the tactical situation near Avdiivka.[33] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 31 that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Keramik (10km northwest of Avdiivka), Stepove (3km northwest of Avdiivka), Avdiivka, Tonenke, Sieverne, and Pervomaiske.[34]

Ukrainian forces did not conduct any claimed or confirmed ground attacks west or southwest of Donetsk City on October 31.

 

Russian forces continued ground attacks west and southwest of Donetsk City on October 31 and made a confirmed advance. Geolocated footage published on October 30 indicates that Russian forces marginally advanced south of Novomykhailivka (20km southwest of Donetsk City).[35] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 31 that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Marinka (just west of Donetsk City) and Novomykhailivka.[36] A Russian news aggregator claimed that there were positional battles on Marinka’s western outskirts on October 30.[37]

 

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Ukrainian forces did not conduct any claimed or confirmed ground assaults in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on October 31.

Russian forces continued limited ground attacks in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on October 31 but did not make any confirmed gains. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Prechystivka (18km southeast of Velyka Novosilka), Zolota Nyva (12km southeast of Velyka Novosilka), and Staromayorske (9km south of Velyka Novosilka).[38] A Russian media aggregator claimed that there was fighting near Pryyutne (14km southwest of Velyka Novosilka) and Novodonetske (12km southeast of Velyka Novosilka) on October 30.[39]

 

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 31 but did not make any confirmed gains. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) direction.[40] Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian assaults near Robotyne, Verbove (9km east of Robotyne), Novoprokopivka (3km south of Robotyne), Kopani (6km northwest of Robotyne), and Nesteryanka (12km northwest of Robotyne).[41]

Russian forces counterattacked in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 31 but did not make any confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully tried to restore lost positions near Robotyne.[42] A BARS-13 (Russian Combat Reserve) affiliated source claimed that Russian forces counterattacked and pushed Ukrainian forces back from positions near Verbove.[43] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted a successful counterattack from Verbove in the direction of Robotyne.[44] ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claimed Russian advances.

 

Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces maintain positions and continue ground activity on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast as of October 31. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continue to hold positions in Krynky (30km northeast of Kherson City and 2km from the Dnipro River) and near the Antonivsky roadway and railway bridges.[45] Russian milbloggers claimed that fighting is ongoing near Krynky and the Antonivsky Railway Bridge and that Ukrainian forces attempted to break through Russian defenses near Pishchanivka (14km east of Kherson City and 3km from the Dnipro River) and Poyma (12km southeast of Kherson City and 4km from the Dnipro River).[46] Ukrainian Crimean-based “Atesh” partisan group stated on October 31 that elements of the Russian 126th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade (22nd Army Corps, either of the 18th Combined Arms Army or the Black Sea Fleet), which is based near Simferopol, are currently operating in the Kherson direction.[47]

Russian forces continued airstrikes with glide bombs against targets on the west (right) bank of Kherson Oblast on October 31. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces launched 45 glide bombs at targets in Kherson and Bersylav raions over the past day.[48]

 

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted combined missile strikes against Sevastopol and elsewhere in occupied Crimea on October 30.[49] Russian opposition outlet Astra reported that sources stated that Ukrainian forces damaged a Russian S-300 air defense system near Molochne (71km northwest of Sevastopol).[50]

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

Former Wagner Group fighters continue to redeploy to Ukraine as part of other Russian formations. A prominent Russian milblogger wrote an article for Kremlin-affiliated outlet Komsomolskaya Pravda on October 30 detailing the experience of several former Wagner fighters who have returned to Ukraine under the control of various other Russian formations.[51] The milblogger cited a Russian commander in the Kreminna area of Luhansk Oblast who stated that there are "plenty" of former Wagner fighters in his sector of the front and that former Wagner fighters are signing new contracts and returning to combat zones. The milblogger also noted that over 170 former Wagner fighters are reportedly fighting in the Chechen "Akhmat" Spetsnaz regiment as part of the "Kamerton" detachment.[52] The article notes that some Wagner fighters have entered contracts with Rosgvardia, some have entered volunteer formations, and some have become part of the regular Russian forces.[53]

A Ukrainian HIMARS strike on October 29 reportedly destroyed an entire battalion of mobilized soldiers from Chuvashia. A Chuvashia-based Telegram channel announced on October 31 that the Russian 1st battalion of the 1251st Motorized Rifle Regiment lost over 120 soldiers killed and wounded in a Ukrainian HIMARS strike on the battalion's convoy in an unspecified location in Ukraine.[54] The Telegram channel and other Russian opposition outlets stated that the Chuvashian regional government has remained silent about the issue, calling attention to efforts by many regional authorities to obfuscate the scale of Russian losses in Ukraine.[55]

Russian Technological Adaptations (Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine)

A Russian milblogger claimed on October 31 that Russian forces will soon receive infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) that will be equipped with electronic warfare (EW) systems that provide special protection from FPV drones.[56] The milblogger claimed that the Kurganmashzavod enterprise in Kurgan Oblast will produce these special IFVs.[57]

Activities in Russian-occupied areas (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)

Russian occupation officials continue efforts to eradicate Ukrainian language and culture in occupied Ukraine. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin stated on October 27 that “[he] will not allow the Ukrainian language to reappear as a state or privileged language” in occupied Donetsk Oblast and claimed that no schools in occupied Donetsk Oblast have chosen to teach Ukrainian language.[58]

The Ukrainian Resistance Center stated on October 31 that more than 400,000 Ukrainian citizens have passed through 17 Russian filtration centers in occupied Donetsk Oblast since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[59] The Resistance Center stated that Ukrainian citizens are subjected to pressure and torture at these filtration centers.

Russian Information Operations and Narratives

Russian sources continue to claim that the antisemitic riots in Makhachkala, Republic of Dagestan on October 29 were the result of a Ukrainian information operation.[60] Telegram founder Pavel Durov announced on October 30 that Telegram blocked the “Utro Dagestan” channel, which played a major role in organizing the antisemitic riots, due to “call[s] for violence.”[61]

Russian Chief of the Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense Troops Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov reiterated boilerplate rhetoric in a routine briefing about alleged American military-biological activities in Ukraine and other countries in Africa and the Middle East.[62]

Russia is continuing efforts to intensify Russian social and cultural influence over Russian-occupied Transnistria, Moldova. Russian newswire TASS reported on October 27 that the Chisinau-based Russia House transferred 2,500 modern Russian textbooks to Transnistria last week in order to facilitate the transfer of schools in Transnistria to Russian educational standards.[63] A prominent Russian milblogger responded to the report and claimed that it is a positive sign of the development of Russian "soft power" in Transnistria, but the Moldovan Foreign Ministry condemned the transfer of textbooks as "unacceptable".[64] The Kremlin frequently weaponizes discourse surrounding Transnistria in an attempt to destabilize Moldova, as ISW has previously reported.[65]

Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)

A Ukrainian military observer stated on October 31 that as of October 29, there are 1,800 to 2,000 Belarusian military personnel along the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, including two air assault battalions of the 38th Separate Air Assault Brigade, two combined tactical detachments of the 5th Separate Special Purpose Brigade, a tactical group of the 51st Artillery Brigade, and a rocket artillery battery of the 336th Rocket Artillery Brigade.[66]

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.



[2] https://ria dot ru/20231031/besporyadki-1906349853.html

[11] https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v2/rule89#:~:text=Articl...(a)%20provides%20that,constitutes%20a%20crime%20against%20humanity.

[12] https://rus dot ozodlik.org/a/32660461.html ; https://meduza dot io/news/2023/10/31/radio-svoboda-sud-v-tashkente-vpervye-prigovoril-grazhdanina-uzbekistana-k-lisheniyu-svobody-za-uchastie-v-voyne-protiv-ukrainy

[13] https://rus dot ozodlik.org/a/32660461.html ; https://meduza dot io/news/2023/10/31/radio-svoboda-sud-v-tashkente-vpervye-prigovoril-grazhdanina-uzbekistana-k-lisheniyu-svobody-za-uchastie-v-voyne-protiv-ukrainy

[51] https://www.kp dot ru/daily/27574/4844603/

[52] https://www.kp dot ru/daily/27574/4844603/

[53] https://www.kp dot ru/daily/27574/4844603/

[58] https://ria dot ru/20231027/pushilin-1905627017.html

[59] https://sprotyv.mod dot gov.ua/blyzko-400-tys-meshkantsiv-tot-donechchyny-projshly-filtratsiyu/

[63] https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/19139513

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