UA-69458566-1

Tuesday, August 9, 2022

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 9

Kateryna Stepanenko, Angela Howard, Katherine Lawlor, Karolina Hird, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan

August 9, 7:45 pm ET

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. 

The Ukrainian General Staff made no mention of Izyum in its 1800 situational report on August 9, nor did other prominent Ukrainian sources despite Western sources’ claims of an ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in this area. This silence represents a noteworthy departure from previous Ukrainian coverage of the Kharkiv-Donetsk axis.

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported a series of large explosions deep within Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast and Crimea on August 9, but Ukrainian officials have not claimed responsibility for them as of the time of this publication. Social media users reported witnessing 12 loud explosions at the Saky airbase in Novofedorivka on the Crimean western coast.[1] Social media footage only showed the large cloud of smoke and the aftermath of the incident.[2] Social media footage also showed a large smoke cloud near Novooleksiivka in Henichensk district, in the vicinity of the Kherson Oblast-Crimean border.[3] Advisor to the Kherson Oblast Administration Serhiy Khlan reported that explosions occurred on the Russian ammunition base but noted that there is no official confirmation of Ukrainian involvement in the incident.[4]

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that several aircraft munitions detonated in the storage areas of the Saky airbase due to poor fire protocol, rejecting reports that Ukrainian strikes or sabotage at the military facility caused the explosions.[5] The Russian Defense Ministry added that the incident did not result in any casualties or damage to Russian aviation equipment. The Russian Health Ministry claimed that five civilians were wounded in the incident, however.[6] Social media footage also showed firefighters extinguishing a burning plane, which also contradicts the original Russian Defense Ministry claim.[7] Russian-appointed Head of Crimea Sergey Aksyenov claimed that Russian officials are only evacuating a few residents in homes near the airbase, but social media footage showed long traffic jams approaching the Crimean bridge and the departure of several minibusses, reportedly with evacuees.[8] Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan claimed that the incident was a result of sabotage rather than a missile or rocket strike.[9] Russian milbloggers voiced differing opinions regarding the origin of the strike, with some speculating that Ukrainian forces used US-provided long-range army tactical missile systems (ATACMS).[10] Ukrainian forces do not have the ATACMS systems, however.

The Kremlin has little incentive to accuse Ukraine of conducting strikes that caused the damage since such strikes would demonstrate the ineffectiveness of Russian air defense systems, which the Ukrainian sinking of the Moskva had already revealed. ISW does not yet have any basis independently to assess the precise cause of the explosions. The apparent simultaneity of explosions at two distinct facilities likely rules out the official Russian version of accidental fire, but it does not rule out either sabotage or long-range missile strike. Ukraine could have modified its Neptune missiles for land-attack use (as the Russians have done with both anti-shipping and anti-aircraft missiles), but there is no evidence to support this hypothesis at this time.

Russia launched an Iranian satellite into orbit on August 9 that could be used to provide military intelligence on Ukraine. Iranian Space Agency Head Hassan Salariyeh stated that the remote-sensing satellite, Khayyam, has a one-meter camera resolution.[11] Khayyam has already begun broadcasting telemetry data.[12] Iranian officials have denied that another state will have access to satellite feed at any point, but Western intelligence officials have claimed that Russian authorities will maintain access.[13]

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces conducted ground attacks to the southeast of Siversk and around Bakhmut.
  • Russian forces conducted ground attacks north of Donetsk City and southwest of Donetsk City near the Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border.
  • Several large explosions hit Russian positions near Sevastopol and north of Crimea, but Russia did not blame Ukraine for them and Ukraine has not taken credit for them.
  • Russia launched a surveillance satellite for Iran.
  • Western media has reported that a Ukrainian counteroffensive is underway near Izyum, but the Ukrainian General Staff was notably completely silent about the area in its evening report.
  • Russian sources suggested that recently-formed volunteer battalions are responsible for much of the Izyum sector.
  • Ukrainian officials claimed that Russian forces continued to fire artillery systems from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
  • Russian officials are continuing to take prominent roles in preparing for the sham referenda in Russian-occupied regions despite Kremlin claims that Russia is not conducting the referenda.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

  • Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and two supporting efforts);
  • Subordinate Main Effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian Troops in the Cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
  • Supporting Effort 1—Kharkiv City
  • Supporting Effort 2—Southern Axis
  • Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
  • Activities in Russian-occupied Areas

Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

The Ukrainian General Staff and local officials reported that Russian forces continued to shell settlements north, west, and south of Izyum and along the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border in the Slovyansk direction on August 9.[14]

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks east of Siversk on August 9. Ukrainian artillery forced Russian forces to retreat from an attempted ground assault in the Spirne area (13 km southeast of Siversk).[15] Russian forces similarly retreated after a reconnaissance-in-force effort near Ivano-Darivka (10 km southeast of Siversk) following Ukrainian bombardment.[16] Russian troops continued to shell Siversk and nearby settlements and targeted Hryhorivka with an airstrike.[17]

Russian forces conducted several ground attacks in the Bakhmut area on August 9. The Ukrainian General Staff acknowledged that Russian forces led a partially successful advance in the direction of Vershyna (13 km southeast of Bakhmut) as well as failed offensive operations toward Yakovlivka, Bakhmut, and Zaitseve.[18] Ukrainian forces repelled Russian reconnaissance-in-force efforts around Pidhorodne (5 km northeast of Bakhmut), Vesele (10 km northeast of Soledar), Yakovlivka (6 km northeast of Soledar), Soledar, and Bakhmut.[19] Russian media amplified claims from Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Deputy Internal Minister Vitaly Kiselev that the LNR’s 6th Cossack Regiment has partially occupied and held portions of the Knauf Gips Donbas gypsum factory southeast of Soledar since an unspecified date.[20] ISW cannot independently verify these claims, however. The UK Ministry of Defense assessed that Russian forces have advanced only about 10 km in the Bakhmut direction over the past 30 days, and these incremental advances along the Bakhmut axis constitute Russia’s most successful front along the Donbas axis.[21] Russian forces continued shelling of and airstrikes on settlements in the Bakhmut direction on August 9.[22]

Russian forces continued ground attacks northwest of Donetsk City on August 9. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted failed offensive operations near Krasnohorivka (16 km north of Donetsk City), Avdiivka (15 km north of Donetsk City), and Pisky (11 km northwest of Donetsk City).[23] Russian milbloggers continued to claim Russian control of Pisky on August 9 but there is insufficient basis to extend the assessed Russian control from central Pisky.[24] DNR officials also claimed unspecified gains in the Avdiivka direction, which ISW cannot confirm.[25] Ukrainian forces neutralized Russian reconnaissance-in-force attempts toward the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border near Velyka Novosilka and Vremivka (75 km west of Donetsk City).[26] Russian-led forces continued to target settlements across southwestern Donetsk with artillery and airstrikes.[27]

Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)

Russian forces conducted no confirmed ground assaults near Kharkiv City on August 9. Russian forces continued active fighting along current lines and conducted an airstrike near Verkhniy Saltiv.[28] The Ukrainian General Staff also noted continued Russian UAV aerial reconnaissance operations.[29] Russian forces continued routine shelling of Kharkiv City and surrounding settlements with tanks, tube and rocket artillery, and unspecified missiles.[30]

Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)

Russian forces maintained defensive positions along the southern frontline and did not conduct offensive operations on August 9. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued to launch airstrikes at Bila Krynytsya and Andriivka, in the vicinity of the Ukrainian bridgehead near the Inhulets River, and on Ukrainian positions in Olhine and Osokorkivka near the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.[31] Russian forces also conducted aerial reconnaissance in northern Kherson Oblast and continued artillery fire along the line of contact in the region.[32] The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence (GUR) intercepted a Russian servicemen’s call in which he stated that Russian forces operating in Kherson Oblast do not have enough manpower to conduct an offensive operation.[33] Mykolaiv Oblast officials also reported that Russian forces shelled the outskirts of Mykolaiv City and launched rockets from the Uragan multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) at Bereznehuvate, approximately 20 km northwest of the Ukrainian bridgehead.[34]

Russian forces are reportedly continuing to neglect the Zaporizhia Oblast frontline in favor of Donetsk and Kherson Oblast efforts. Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration Head Oleksandr Starukh noted that Russian forces are periodically concentrating forces in Zaporizhia Oblast to redistribute them to Donetsk or Kherson Oblast directions.[35] Starukh added that Ukrainian military command assesses a low risk of Russian offensive operation in Zaporizhia Oblast but specified that combat operations continue at the Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command did not report any changes in the Russian troop composition in Kherson Oblast on August 9.[36]

Ukrainian officials maintained that Russian forces are continuing to fire using artillery systems situated at the territory of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces fired 80 Grad MLRS rockets at Nikopol from firing positions on the opposite bank of the Kakhovka Reservoir.[37] Starukh stated that Russian forces continue to use the territory of the Zaporizhzhia NPP to shell Nikopol and use the plant as a nuclear shield.[38]

Ukrainian officials and social media users reported several explosions at Russian military bases and ammunition depots across the Southern Axis on August 8 and August 9. Advisor to the Kherson Oblast Administration Serhiy Khlan reported that a Russian ammunition depot suffered secondary explosions for over an hour and a half in Novooleksiivka near Henichensk (approximately 35 km north of the Crimean border).[39] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported a series of explosions at the Russian Saky airbase in occupied Novofedorivka, western Crimean coast.[40] Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov also reported 10 explosions at Russian military bases in the western part of Melitopol.[41] Ukrainian officials have not taken responsibility for the strikes on Russian military infrastructure as of the time of this publication. The Southern Operational Command only confirmed that Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions in Snihurivka (approximately 31 km east of Mykolaiv City) and two command posts in the Berislav and Khersonskyi districts.[42]

Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

Kremlin-affiliated outlet Kommersant reported that Russian federal subjects (regions) formed over 40 volunteer battalions, confirming (and/or repeating) ISW’s assessments of Russian regional force generation campaigns.[43] ISW has previously identified that federal subjects formed 41 volunteer battalions and units throughout Russia. Kommersant notably did not report on the formation of the Moscow-based “Sobyaninskyi” Regiment that began recruitment on July 1.[44] Kommersant confirmed that St. Petersburg, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hometown, is forming three volunteer battalions “Kronstandt,” ”Neva,” and “Pavlovsk” exclusively composed of the city’s residents. St. Petersburg outlet “Fontanka” previously reported that one of the St. Petersburg battalions is an artillery unit.[45] Kommersant identified three new volunteer units from Tomsk, Amur, and Irkutsk Oblasts: Tomsk Oblast is forming the “Troyan” Battalion, Irkutsk Oblast is recruiting for the “Angara” Battalion, and Amur Oblast is expecting to recruit 400-500 volunteers for the “Amurskyi” Motorized Rifle Battalion. 

Kommersant also identified the Russian Defense Ministry, Russian federal subject governments, and existing military units as responsible for supplying and preparing individual volunteer battalions. In the example of the Primorskiy Krai-based “Tigr” Volunteer Battalion, the Russian Pacific Fleet provides recruits with ammunition and body armor, Primorskiy Krai supplies clothes and special equipment such as radios, and the Russian Defense Ministry dispenses weapons. If this pattern of responsibility distribution is common for all federal subjects, then some poorer federal subjects are likely to provide lower quality special equipment than other regions. Kommersant’s interview with an unnamed Russian federal official further suggests that the Russian Defense Ministry or the Kremlin ordered federal subjects to set informational and financial conditions for the establishment of the volunteer units, as ISW assessed on July 13.[46]

Kommersant’s report further showcases the involvement of the Kuban Cossack Host (Army) during the Russian invasion of Ukraine and in its force generation efforts. The report noted that about 1,200 Cossacks are participating in the Russian hostilities in Ukraine. Kommersant reported that Krasnodar Krai formed additional military units called “Zakharia Chepigi” and ”Kuban” based on the Kuban Cossack Host in April and May, respectively. The Union of Cossack Warriors of Russia and Abroad also announced the reorganization of the “Don” Cossack Detachment into a brigade joint with the “Terek” Battalion and composed of “Kuban” and “Yenisey” units. The “Don” Detachment has conducted offensive operations around Velyka Komyshuvakha (southwest of Izyum) since at least April and the “Terek” Battalion recruited additional volunteers ages 20 to 63 from Stavropol Krai and Northern Caucasus.[47] The “Terek” Battalion has already reportedly sent 500 Cossacks to Donbas.[48] “Yermak” and “Tavrida” Cossack units are also reportedly conducting combat operations in Ukraine.

The Kremlin or Russian Defense Ministry are likely exploiting leaders of immigrant and ethnic organizations to generate forces for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Chairman of the “Society of Central Asian Uzbeks of Perm Krai” Jahongir Jalolov announced that Uzbek nationals living or working in Perm Krai should form the “Amir Timur” Volunteer Battalion in Perm Krai to support Russian forces in Ukraine.[49] Jalolov noted that Uzbeks owe their livelihoods in Russia to the Russian people, and hence should participate in the special military operation. ISW has previously reported that Russian forces have been reportedly recruiting Central Asian immigrants to the Moscow-based “Sobyaninskyi” Regiment in exchange for Russian citizenship and financial compensation.[50]

Russian sources additionally announced a recruitment effort to reinforce the “Russian Legion”—a volunteer battalion currently operating on the Donetsk-Kharkiv Oblast border—as of August 9.[51] The “Russian Legion” is reportedly formed of elements of the Russian Combat Army Reserve (BARS)—an effort aimed to establish an active reserve by recruiting volunteer reservists for three-year contract service.[52] This unit has reportedly fought on the Izyum axis near Pasika, Studenok, and Bohorodychne without rotation for three months.[53] The Russian Legion’s commander reportedly has been fighting in eastern Ukraine since 2014.[54] The tone of the post suggests that regular units of the Russian military have not fought in a significant part of this frontline sector recently, indicating that the Russian military is leveraging recently-formed volunteer units to perform frontline fighting in some areas, as opposed to reinforcing regular military units.

Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of occupied areas; set conditions for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or some other future political arrangement of Moscow’s choosing)

Russian occupation officials are attempting to set conditions for the fa├žade of a normal school year in occupied parts of Ukraine but are likely facing resistance from parents and school officials. The Ukrainian head of the Kherson Regional Administration, Yaroslav Yanushkevych, reported on August 9 that Russian occupation officials in Kherson Oblast are offering parents approximately 4,000 hryvnias a month (about 108 USD) to enroll their children in Russian-run schools for the autumn term.[55] An advisor to Yanushkevych, Serhiy Khlan, reported on August 9 that occupation officials are struggling to find locations to host polling stations for the sham annexation referendum in Kherson and are pressuring schools and school principals to help organize the referendum and to allow schools to be used as polling stations.[56]

Russian officials are increasingly overtly involving themselves in the planned pseudo-referenda that the Kremlin will use to claim that Russia has a legitimate claim to annex occupied Ukrainian territory despite Kremlin Spokesman Dmitrii Peskov’s claim that it is not Russians who are holding the referendum.[57] The Russian governor of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea, Mikhail Razvozhaev, announced on August 9 that Sevastopol officials will monitor the referendum in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast and that Sevastopol organizers are already at work throughout Zaporizhia.[58] The Sevastopol organizers will likely join volunteers and employees from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party, who have been assisting occupation administrations and preparing for the sham referendum in occupied Ukrainian territories since April.[59] The Russian-appointed head of the Zaporizhia Occupation Administration, Yevheny Balitsky, announced the beginning of formal preparations for the annexation referendum on August 8 and told Russian media on August 9 that he is “nearly certain” that Zaporizhia will “return to” Russia following the sham referendum.[60] Russian forces occupy about three-quarters of Zaporizhia Oblast’s territory as of August 9, encompassing the homes of about half of the population of the oblast.

Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications announced on August 9 that the Kremlin has crossed a “red line” by formally announcing the referendum in Zaporizhia, waging an “aggressive, colonial war” to annex Ukrainian territories seeking the “destruction of Ukraine’s statehood.”[61] The Center urged all residents to resist the occupation and noted that “Russia has made a bet on Melitopol [in Zaporizhia Oblast], not on Kherson” because the Kremlin “understands the inevitability of losing their bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnipro [river].” The Center promised that Ukrainian forces will liberate Zaporizhia, Kherson, and all other occupied territories. 


[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/loud-explosions-heard-near-russian-military-airbase-crimea-witnesses-2022-08-09/; https://t.me/rian_crimea/14215; https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/9713

[2] https://t.me/stranaua/56865; https://t.me/stranaua/56859; https://t.me/stranaua/56872; https://t.me/stranaua/56875; https://t.me/stranaua/56878; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/39124; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/39127; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/39131; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/39132; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/39141

[3] https://t.me/hueviyherson/23647; https://t.me/hueviyherson/23646; https://t.me/hueviyherson/23645

[4] https://www.ukrinform dot .net/rubric-ato/3546789-enemy-ammunition-detonates-near-henichesk.html https://www.ukrinform. dot net/rubric-ato/3546789-enemy-ammunition-detonates-near-henichesk.html; https://www.facebook.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid0x5AvHy3mAh6XVeDEEyyww3E5WBgAGd87ArciLmX94iWQH55CbyVTnNesS65j4e9Yl?__cft__[0]=AZUeTxpr6NsWAONGZ2BPEAg0QJ--rtvDHdjJ0AVKoRk5YsbzgtZsz3t87FDxEjGZIRW929OdkBslW6yHWk81_MtXqkT2LqMJcivU-7PQG6HSN3PqNdJDe0RFvUgyVHzYalRy2--Z4hf3Hl_psY_wAjh4&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R; https://www.facebook.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid02BYgMeFvzaUGMSTzmSJuNYNg5bCUR2wwTwe6HVwKiRUAsLvshKXzqGPkbgcZR9y86l?__cft__[0]=AZWMZZRGruGqjjxUkOAxNGJUtE7hbfFMJXC3Vvvm8YB8jVmGuUITn1Nq_S5xPmWHC-fNhPhph9M0R6WR89xRnwm1gAUQ2Y_GQohnccmKen8W3HkFMbibR-OQOFBjy1vygQ4VjRFCDgusPrrgXIneNxEj4fRFUdPvnnE8cZ25-vY77Q&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R; https://www.youtube.com/watch?fbclid=IwAR2iaYnyY4sLr102f_M0lha5vegAZTMizSke894yE3zEnDjm5KE6O6HSw_Y&v=EnlDoDdVexo&feature=youtu.be

[5] https://t.me/rian_ru/173909; https://t.me/izvestia/99588

[6] https://t.me/rian_ru/173923

[7] https://t.me/milinfolive/88489

[8] https://t.me/Aksenov82/1294; https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1557027349610303491?s=20&t=wZFyxOLhnKw6NvLYNcgJ7Q; https://t.me/bazabazon/12719; https://t.me/bazabazon/12724; https://t.me/bazabazon/12727

[9] https://twitter.com/M_Simonyan/status/1556995319228940289; https://t.me/bazabazon/12722

[10] https://t.me/readovkanews/39968; https://t.me/readovkaru/1186

[11] https://www.irna dot ir/news/84848211

[12] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-receives-first-telemetry-data-khayyam-satellite-irna-2022-08-09/

[13] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-receives-first-telemetry-data-khayyam-satellite-irna-2022-08-09/

[14]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0eyyqxZ5FHVYBFfgwDfSj4GDiQ2fGo7wc6dxhf2ch3EkRCQS1qWGUVg7kGELVBcnwl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02pKLM3xPunJUgDR12hd2Gf99Ps1qB6PibGNksQx3nA1JdnrDsRY2i1dWST5wTyyd7l; https://t.me/kramatorsk_rada/5131

[15]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02pKLM3xPunJUgDR12hd2Gf99Ps1qB6PibGNksQx3nA1JdnrDsRY2i1dWST5wTyyd7l

[16]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0eyyqxZ5FHVYBFfgwDfSj4GDiQ2fGo7wc6dxhf2ch3EkRCQS1qWGUVg7kGELVBcnwl

[17]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02pKLM3xPunJUgDR12hd2Gf99Ps1qB6PibGNksQx3nA1JdnrDsRY2i1dWST5wTyyd7l; https://t.me/kramatorsk_rada/5152

[18]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02pKLM3xPunJUgDR12hd2Gf99Ps1qB6PibGNksQx3nA1JdnrDsRY2i1dWST5wTyyd7l; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0eyyqxZ5FHVYBFfgwDfSj4GDiQ2fGo7wc6dxhf2ch3EkRCQS1qWGUVg7kGELVBcnwl; https://t.me/kommunist/8232

[19]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02pKLM3xPunJUgDR12hd2Gf99Ps1qB6PibGNksQx3nA1JdnrDsRY2i1dWST5wTyyd7l

[20] https://t.me/kommunist/8197; https://t.me/readovkanews/39975; https://t.me/kommunist/8233; https://t.me/milinfolive/88446

[21] https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1556877244580118529?s=20&t=XVXzzV94XhC6RVITdBPCqg%E2%80%A2

[22]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02pKLM3xPunJUgDR12hd2Gf99Ps1qB6PibGNksQx3nA1JdnrDsRY2i1dWST5wTyyd7l; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0eyyqxZ5FHVYBFfgwDfSj4GDiQ2fGo7wc6dxhf2ch3EkRCQS1qWGUVg7kGELVBcnwl; https://t.me/spravdi/15018

[23]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02pKLM3xPunJUgDR12hd2Gf99Ps1qB6PibGNksQx3nA1JdnrDsRY2i1dWST5wTyyd7l; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0eyyqxZ5FHVYBFfgwDfSj4GDiQ2fGo7wc6dxhf2ch3EkRCQS1qWGUVg7kGELVBcnwl

[24] https://t.me/epoddubny/11859; https://t.me/milchronicles/998; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-8

[25] https://t.me/nm_dnr/8720

[26]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0eyyqxZ5FHVYBFfgwDfSj4GDiQ2fGo7wc6dxhf2ch3EkRCQS1qWGUVg7kGELVBcnwl

[27] https://t.me/spravdi/15018; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02pKLM3xPunJUgDR12hd2Gf99Ps1qB6PibGNksQx3nA1JdnrDsRY2i1dWST5wTyyd7l; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0eyyqxZ5FHVYBFfgwDfSj4GDiQ2fGo7wc6dxhf2ch3EkRCQS1qWGUVg7kGELVBcnwl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02pKLM3xPunJUgDR12hd2Gf99Ps1qB6PibGNksQx3nA1JdnrDsRY2i1dWST5wTyyd7l; https://t.me/kramatorsk_rada/5131

[28] https://t.me/synegubov/3870; https://t.me/der_rada/2241; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0eyyqxZ5FHVYBFfgwDfSj4GDiQ2fGo7wc6dxhf2ch3EkRCQS1qWGUVg7kGELVBcnwl

[29]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0eyyqxZ5FHVYBFfgwDfSj4GDiQ2fGo7wc6dxhf2ch3EkRCQS1qWGUVg7kGELVBcnwl;

[30] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02pKLM3xPunJUgDR12hd2Gf99Ps1qB6PibGNksQx3nA1JdnrDsRY2i1dWST5wTyyd7l; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0eyyqxZ5FHVYBFfgwDfSj4GDiQ2fGo7wc6dxhf2ch3EkRCQS1qWGUVg7kGELVBcnwl; https://t.me/der_rada/2236; https://www.facebook.com/Zadorenko/posts/pfbid0mo6vwohr88h9NNHvNm8J9ixXFsMp3PsxtojxY8tq9BcdPxcZDm2iYFX7JYXYUKuYl; https://t.me/spravdi/15018; https://t.me/ihor_terekhov/397; https://t.me/stranaua/56777; https://t.me/synegubov/3870; https://t.me/der_rada/2241

[31] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02pKLM3xPunJUgDR12hd2Gf99Ps1qB6PibGNksQx3nA1JdnrDsRY2i1dWST5wTyyd7l; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0eyyqxZ5FHVYBFfgwDfSj4GDiQ2fGo7wc6dxhf2ch3EkRCQS1qWGUVg7kGELVBcnwl

[32] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0eyyqxZ5FHVYBFfgwDfSj4GDiQ2fGo7wc6dxhf2ch3EkRCQS1qWGUVg7kGELVBcnwl; https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/videos/578481097247911/; https://t.me/khersonskaODA/790; https://t.me/spravdi/15018

[33] https://gur dot gov.ua/content/u-nas-tam-mnoho-poter-kak-by-vam-po-televyzoru-ne-rasskazhut-pravdu.html

[34] https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/videos/578481097247911/

[35] https://t.me/zoda_gov_ua/11472

[36] https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/videos/578481097247911/

[37] https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/videos/578481097247911/; https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/457 ; https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/1502; https://t.me/mykola_lukashuk/950; https://t.me/vilkul/1700

[38] https://t.me/zoda_gov_ua/11472

[39] https://www.facebook.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid02BYgMeFvzaUGMSTzmSJuNYNg5bCUR2wwTwe6HVwKiRUAsLvshKXzqGPkbgcZR9y86l

[40] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/loud-explosions-heard-near-russian-military-airbase-crimea-witnesses-2022-08-09/; https://t.me/rian_crimea/14215

[41] https://t.me/ivan_fedorov_melitopol/374; https://t.me/ivan_fedorov_melitopol/373

[42] https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/videos/578481097247911/; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=383004923983670

[43] https://www dot kommersant.ru/doc/5501970

[44] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-13

[45] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-31

[46] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-13

[47] https://life dot ru/p/1511354; https://news dot 1777.ru/85070-kazaki-severnogo-kavkaza-primut-uchastie-v-voennoy-specoperacii-na-ukraine

 

[48] https://news dot 1777.ru/85070-kazaki-severnogo-kavkaza-primut-uchastie-v-voennoy-specoperacii-na-ukraine

[49] https://vetta dot tv/news/society/permskie-uzbeki-planiruyut-prisoedinitsya-k-spetsoperatsii-na-ukraine/

[50] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-26

[51] https://t.me/sashakots/34803

[52] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/explainer-russian-conscription-reserve-and-mobilization

[53] https://t.me/sashakots/34803

[54] https://t.me/sashakots/34803

[55] https://t.me/khersonskaODA/790

[56]https://www.facebook.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid02pbcAXPVRwo41VZfdCqsBT5YbPm5H2uKSwvKmpwKHGEcXNJzxNrLp85TTP7jVR2Ndl

[57] https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/15421435?; https://tass dot ru/politika/15420573; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-8

[58] https://t.me/stranaua/56804; https://t.me/razvozhaev/835

[59] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-29; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-16

[60] https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/15430851

[61] https://t.me/spravdi/15022

 

 

Monday, August 8, 2022

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 8

Layne Philipson, Katherine Lawlor, Karolina Hird, George Barros, Angela Howard, and Frederick W. Kagan

August 8, 7:00 pm ET

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Western and Ukrainian outlets circulated a report, likely false, of a Russian general allegedly threatening to destroy Europe’s largest nuclear facility, the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), if Russia could not hold the plant. Multiple news outlets shared a screenshot from the Russian social networking site Vkontakte that claimed to cite the Russian head of the Zaporizhia occupation garrison, Major General Valery Vasilev, stating that Russia had mined the Zaporizhzhia NPP and that the plant would be “either Russian land or a scorched desert.”[1] The screenshot appeared to be a news report posted in a Vkontakte group run by Russian outlet Lenta Novosti Zaporizhia. The outlet itself claimed that the screenshot was from a faked group and denied writing the report.[2] The Russian Ministry of Defense condemned the report and screenshot as a “fake” and claimed that Vasilev was in Uzbekistan at the time he was purported to have made the statement to forces at Zaporizhzhia.[3] Regardless of the origin (or existence) of the original post, the reporting is unreliable. It is indirect and does not claim to cite an official statement or a statement made on any official Russian news or government website.

This likely misreporting distracts from the very real risks of Russia’s militarization of the Zaporizhzhia NPP, which may include mining the plant and almost certainly includes the unsafe storage of military armaments near nuclear reactors and nuclear waste storage facilities.[4] Bellingcat geolocated a drone video of the Zaporizhia NPP that was shared by Russian opposition outlet The Insider on August 5. The video depicts Russian military vehicles moving in and around the plant, including military trucks and armored vehicles moving around and into the building containing the first of the plant’s six nuclear reactors.[5] Russian forces have also dug trenches in and around the plant and may have established firing positions.[6] Russian officials claim that Ukraine has repeatedly attacked the plant, while Ukrainian officials claim that Russian forces are attacking Ukrainian positions from within the plant, preventing Ukrainian return fire and essentially using the plant as a nuclear shield.[7] Russian forces have repeatedly shelled the nearby Ukrainian-controlled town of Nikopol, likely from positions in or around the NPP, since July.[8]

ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are likely leveraging the threat of nuclear disaster to degrade Western will to provide military support to a Ukrainian counteroffensive.[9]

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.

Key Takeaways

  • Reporting of a likely falsified Russian statement distracts from the real risks of a Russian-caused nuclear disaster at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Russian forces continue to conduct attacks from and store military equipment near the plant’s nuclear reactors, likely to play upon Western fears of a nuclear disaster and degrade Western will to provide additional military support to Ukraine.
  • Russian forces conducted ground attacks northwest of Slovyansk and northeast and southeast of Bakhmut.
  • Russian forces continued ground attacks northwest and southwest of Donetsk City.
  • Russian officials postponed reopening the Antonivskyi Bridge after a Ukrainian strike damaged the bridge and nearby construction equipment.
  • Russian forces are deploying less-professional occupation forces and increasing pressure on Ukrainian populations in occupied areas.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

  • Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and two supporting efforts);
  • Subordinate Main Effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian Troops in the Cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
  • Supporting Effort 1—Kharkiv City
  • Supporting Effort 2—Southern Axis
  • Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
  • Activities in Russian-occupied Areas

Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed advances northwest of Izyum on August 8. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted an airstrike on Zalyman, approximately 30 km northwest of Izyum, and shelled settlements north of Izyum, including Husarivka and Asiivka.[10]

Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack northwest of Slovyansk on August 8. The Ukrainian General staff reported that Russian forces conducted a failed offensive to improve their positions near Bohorodychne.[11] Russian forces continued to shell settlements between Izyum and Slovyansk along the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border and additionally conducted an artillery strike directly on Slovyansk.[12] Russian journalist and milblogger Evgeniy Poddubniy claimed on August 7 that Ukrainian forces are continually forming new brigades in Kharkiv Oblast despite continuous Russian strikes and projected that this force generation shows that Ukrainian forces can simultaneously conduct advances in the Kherson direction and in Kharkiv Oblast.[13]

Russian forces conducted ground assaults to the east of Siversk on August 8. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces attempted failed offensives in the direction of Verkhnokamyanskye (5 km east of Siversk) and four other unnamed settlements but retreated with losses.[14] Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai also reported that Ukrainian forces neutralized Russian reconnaissance groups near unspecified settlements.[15] Russian forces continued to shell Siversk and nearby settlements with tank, tube, and rocket artillery and targeted neighboring villages, Hryhorivka and Ivano-Darivka, with airstrikes.[16]

Russian forces continued ground attacks to the east and south of Bakhmut on August 8. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces defeated Russian reconnaissance groups of unspecified echelons near Bakhmutske, and Yakovlivka—villages approximately 15 km northeast of Bakhmut—and that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground assaults near Zaitseve and Vershyna—villages approximately 10 km southeast of Bakhmut.[17] Russian forces likely seek to establish control over Soledar to Bakhmut’s north and Zaitseve to Bakhmut’s south to set conditions to disrupt Ukrainian control over the T0513 trunk road that supports Ukrainian frontline positions in northeast Donetsk Oblast.

Russian forces continued ground attacks to the northwest and southwest of Donetsk City on August 8. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops attempted to advance toward Avdiivka (5 km north of Donetsk City) Pisky (5 km northwest of Donetsk City), and Nevelske (12 km northwest of Donetsk City).[18] Social media footage posted on August 7 previously showed Russian forces advancing within Pisky itself and, taken in tandem with the vague language of the Ukrainian General Staff report, Russian forces are likely focusing on advancing northwest through Pisky from positions in the center of the settlement.[19] Russian troops additionally conducted localized ground attacks southwest of Donetsk City near Maryinka and Shevchenko.[20]

Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks northeast of Kharkiv City and focused on maintaining their current lines on August 8.[21] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted airstrikes and UAV reconnaissance northeast of Kharkiv City.[22] Russian forces also struck residential areas near central Kharkiv City with multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) and continued to strike Kharkiv City and surrounding settlements with S-300 missiles, mortars, tanks, and tank, tube, and rocket artillery.[23]

Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)

Russian forces continued focusing efforts on maintaining their current positions and preventing Ukrainian advances along the Southern Axis on August 8.[24] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued shelling civilian and military infrastructure using tank, tube, and rocket artillery and intensified aerial reconnaissance using UAVs along the entire line of contact.[25] Russian forces also conducted airstrikes on Lozove and Andriivka, both on the eastern bank of the Inhulets River, and Olhyne, located along the northern part of the T2207 highway.[26] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces also conducted airstrikes in Prechistivka, Volodymyrivka, Novomykhailivka, and Poltavka.[27]

Russian forces continued to target settlements in Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa oblasts with artillery and missiles. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces launched two Kh-59 cruise missiles at Kamianske and continued shelling Nikopol, Zelendolsk, Marhanets, and Velika Kostromka, Dniprotrovsk Oblast.[28] Russian forces also continued shelling settlements on the outskirts of Mykolaiv City but did not launch any strikes directly on Mykolaiv City.[29] Odesa officials reported that Ukrainian air defense forces shot down four Russian Kalibr missiles fired from the Black Sea.[30]

Ukrainian forces continued targeting Russian military positions and ammunition depots in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported that Ukrainian high mobility artillery rocket system (HIMARS) strikes destroyed a “significant amount of” Russian military equipment and manpower concentrations in industrial districts throughout Melitopol at night on August 7-8.[31] Fedorov also noted that Russian forces transferred a significant part of their air defense systems from Melitopol to Kherson during the week of July 31-August 7.[32] Ukrainian officials confirmed that Ukrainian forces struck the Antonivsky and Kakhovka bridges at night on August 7-8.[33] Russian Deputy Head of the Russian Occupation Administration in Kherson Oblast Kirill Stremousov stated that Russian officials will postpone reopening the Antonivskyi bridge, scheduled for August 10, due to the damage to construction equipment near the bridge.[34] Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Vladislav Nazarov reported that Ukrainian airstrikes hit two Russian strongholds in the Kherson and Berislav districts and that Ukrainian indirect fire destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Charivne, approximately 65 km northeast of Kherson City on August 7.[35]

Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov stated that a Russian Special Forces volunteer group completed a two-week accelerated tactical and fire training course at the Russian Special Forces University in Gudermes, Chechnya.[36] Kadyrov stated that a flight of volunteers departed the Grozny airport for deployment to an unspecified area in Ukraine on August 8.[37]

Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of occupied areas; set conditions for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or some other future political arrangement of Moscow’s choosing)

Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on August 8 that Russian forces are deploying less-professional occupation forces and increasing pressure on local populations. The GUR reported that Russian occupation forces are increasing pressure on civilians at checkpoints in Kherson Oblast, particularly in Hola Prystan. The GUR reported that Russian forces deployed a newly mobilized battalion of Russian convicted criminals (likely pardoned for their service) to Balaklia, Kharkiv Oblast, and that cruelty, “immoral behavior,” and aggressive attitudes toward the local population “increased sharply” upon their arrival.[38] This report demonstrates one effect of Russia’s wide-ranging attempt to mobilize as many Russians as possible, regardless of fitness for service. The GUR also reported that racialized conflicts between Russian occupation units of different ethnicities are increasing, affecting the safety of civilians in occupied areas. The GUR claimed that Russian forces shot and killed the Chechen deputy commander of a unit in Zaporizhia for ethnically motivated reasons. The GUR also reported that an intoxicated Russian soldier driving an armored personnel carrier (APC) knocked down an electrical pole in Zelenopillya, Luhansk Oblast, cutting off electricity to the town.

Newly mobilized Russian battalions are likely worse trained, less professional, and more brutal to occupied populations than professional Russian soldiers or even conscripts who completed formal military training prior to their deployments. Russian forces may increasingly deploy low-quality, poorly trained units, like those made up of convicts, to control populations in occupied parts of Ukraine. Such deployments may reduce the competence of occupation authorities and counter-partisan operations and may increase Ukrainian support for movements that resist Russia’s occupation.

Russian occupation officials are beginning to issue formal orders to prepare for sham annexation referenda. The head of the Russian Zaporizhia Oblast Occupation Administration, Yevheny Balitsky, said on August 8 that he ordered the oblast’s central election commission “to start working on the issue of organizing a referendum on the reunification of Zaporizhia Oblast with the Russian Federation.”[39] Balitsky claimed that he signed the order after 700 delegates voted “unanimously” at the “We Are Together with Russia” event held in Zaporizhia Oblast on August 8. ISW has previously assessed that the Kremlin likely founded, coordinates, and promotes the “We Are Together with Russia” organization to create a facade of public support for the annexation and integration of occupied Ukrainian oblasts into Russia.[40] Other Russian occupation officials amplified Balitsky’s referendum preparation and congratulated him for ”following the path of Crimea.”[41] The Russian deputy head of the Kherson Occupation Administration, Kirill Stremousov, posted video footage on Telegram that he claimed showed residents of Kherson Oblast claiming that they are ready to vote in a referendum to join Russia.[42] Stremousov claimed that Kherson "has already been liberated from slavery and the colonial regime of the collective West.” Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov announced on August 8 that residents of Kherson and Zaporizhia want to hold referendums to join Russia and claimed that “It's not us [the Kremlin] who are holding the referendum.”[43]

Russian occupation officials are also attempting to incentivize Ukrainian cooperation with Russian data collection efforts that occupation officials will likely use to falsify the results of the sham annexation referenda but are facing resistance. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on August 8 that Russian occupation forces in Kherson are expanding the number of “one-time financial assistance” locations at which civilians in occupied areas can receive 10,000 rubles (approximately 165 USD) in exchange for their passport data.[44] The Resistance Center reported that this approach has not generated as much data collection as occupation officials had planned, leading them to expand the number of locations throughout occupied Kherson Oblast.[45] Ukrainian partisan Telegram channel Yellow Ribbon called on Kherson Oblast residents to mobilize and prevent Russians from holding an annexation referendum on August 8 and asked civilians in occupied areas to provide information on Russian planning, collaborators, and troop movements.[46] Yellow Ribbon also shared images of partisan supporters posting partisan posters and slogans in Kherson, Nova Kakhovka, Melitopol, and Crimea on August 8 and called on Ukrainians to resist Russian “passportization” efforts.[47] 


[1] https://www.thedailybeast.com/zaporizhzhia-nuclear-disaster-miraculously-avoided-during-suicidal-russian-attack; https://focus dot ua/uk/voennye-novosti/524694-tut-budet-russka-zemlya-ili-vyzzhennaya-pustynya-komandir-okkupantov-na-zaporozhskoy-aes; https://antikor dot com.ua/ru/articles/565687-tut_budet_russkaja_zemlja_ili_vyhhennaja_pustynja__komandir_okkupantov_na_zaporohskoj_aes; https://news dot uaportal.com/section-telegram-news/news-tut-budet-ili-russkaya-zemlya-ili-vyizhzhennaya-pustyinya-okkupantyi-prigrozili-vzorvat-zaporozhskuyu-aes-v-sluchae-nastupleniya-vsu-08-08-2022.html; https://t.me/u_now/62146; https://t.me/orlovdmytroEn/780;

[2] https://zp-news dot ru/other/2022/08/08/14127.html; https://vk dot com/public213127547; https://vk dot com/public213127547?w=wall-213127547_3075

[3] https://t.me/mod_russia/18347

[4] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-6

[5] https://twitter.com/wammezz/status/1556605121664106496?s=20&t=wzB8_Kk8dnB_3Z4FSvjFSA

[6] https://twitter.com/wammezz/status/1556605152500523008?s=20&t=wzB8_Kk8dnB_3Z4FSvjFSA

[7] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/08/world/europe/zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant.html?smid=url-share

[8] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-6

[9] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-3

[10]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02STQSgyvVQggZbz2E6dof1wUuGys1A7uKEyzt9knqzHqwhV8eRKHNzzYdiE3xhZ7Rl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02PUdiDteq3vuMhso5TptHKTBKyzJMU9yfv16t61NjA9uZtas9gBjfLDJa41DjU8U8l

[11] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02STQSgyvVQggZbz2E6dof1wUuGys1A7uKEyzt9knqzHqwhV8eRKHNzzYdiE3xhZ7Rl;

[12]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02STQSgyvVQggZbz2E6dof1wUuGys1A7uKEyzt9knqzHqwhV8eRKHNzzYdiE3xhZ7Rl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02STQSgyvVQggZbz2E6dof1wUuGys1A7uKEyzt9knqzHqwhV8eRKHNzzYdiE3xhZ7Rl; https://t.me/slv_vca/3174; https://t.me/spravdi/14965; https://t.me/mod_russia/18342

[13] https://t.me/epoddubny/11849

[14] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02PUdiDteq3vuMhso5TptHKTBKyzJMU9yfv16t61NjA9uZtas9gBjfLDJa41DjU8U8l; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/4827

[15] https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/4831

[16]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02STQSgyvVQggZbz2E6dof1wUuGys1A7uKEyzt9knqzHqwhV8eRKHNzzYdiE3xhZ7Rl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02PUdiDteq3vuMhso5TptHKTBKyzJMU9yfv16t61NjA9uZtas9gBjfLDJa41DjU8U8l

[17] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02PUdiDteq3vuMhso5TptHKTBKyzJMU9yfv16t61NjA9uZtas9gBjfLDJa41DjU8U8l

[18] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02STQSgyvVQggZbz2E6dof1wUuGys1A7uKEyzt9knqzHqwhV8eRKHNzzYdiE3xhZ7Rl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02PUdiDteq3vuMhso5TptHKTBKyzJMU9yfv16t61NjA9uZtas9gBjfLDJa41DjU8U8l

[19] https://twitter.com/Arvelleg1/status/1556302428638674947; https://twitter.com/zcjbrooker/status/1556259391514492928

[20] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02STQSgyvVQggZbz2E6dof1wUuGys1A7uKEyzt9knqzHqwhV8eRKHNzzYdiE3xhZ7Rl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02PUdiDteq3vuMhso5TptHKTBKyzJMU9yfv16t61NjA9uZtas9gBjfLDJa41DjU8U8l

[21]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02STQSgyvVQggZbz2E6dof1wUuGys1A7uKEyzt9knqzHqwhV8eRKHNzzYdiE3xhZ7Rl

[22]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02STQSgyvVQggZbz2E6dof1wUuGys1A7uKEyzt9knqzHqwhV8eRKHNzzYdiE3xhZ7Rl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02PUdiDteq3vuMhso5TptHKTBKyzJMU9yfv16t61NjA9uZtas9gBjfLDJa41DjU8U8l

[23]. https://t.me/synegubov/3868; https://t.me/synegubov/3866; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02STQSgyvVQggZbz2E6dof1wUuGys1A7uKEyzt9knqzHqwhV8eRKHNzzYdiE3xhZ7Rl; https://t.me/synegubov/3864; . https://t.me/der_rada/2226; https://www.facebook.com/Zadorenko/posts/pfbid02EgQPm2XmhzsfuCyHEa5FzFAGEYNudBVAT5hK7frBSU9XrkkXWdZ9DnUKYpsNVqNRl

[24] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02PUdiDteq3vuMhso5TptHKTBKyzJMU9yfv16t61NjA9uZtas9gBjfLDJa41DjU8U8l; https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/videos/1012950379374222/; https://t.me/zoda_gov_ua/11413

[25] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02STQSgyvVQggZbz2E6dof1wUuGys1A7uKEyzt9knqzHqwhV8eRKHNzzYdiE3xhZ7Rl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02STQSgyvVQggZbz2E6dof1wUuGys1A7uKEyzt9knqzHqwhV8eRKHNzzYdiE3xhZ7Rl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02PUdiDteq3vuMhso5TptHKTBKyzJMU9yfv16t61NjA9uZtas9gBjfLDJa41DjU8U8l

[26] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02PUdiDteq3vuMhso5TptHKTBKyzJMU9yfv16t61NjA9uZtas9gBjfLDJa41DjU8U8l

[27] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02STQSgyvVQggZbz2E6dof1wUuGys1A7uKEyzt9knqzHqwhV8eRKHNzzYdiE3xhZ7Rl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02PUdiDteq3vuMhso5TptHKTBKyzJMU9yfv16t61NjA9uZtas9gBjfLDJa41DjU8U8l

[28] https://t.me/mykola_lukashuk/946; https://t.me/mykola_lukashuk/942; https://t.me/vilkul/1697; https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/442; https://www.facebook.com/okPivden/videos/733975671038044/; https://t.me/spravdi/14965

[29] https://t.me/spravdi/14965; https://t.me/mykolaivskaODA/2049

[30] https://t.me/Bratchuk_Sergey/16843; https://t.me/odeskaODA/748

[31] https://t.me/ivan_fedorov_melitopol/366

[32] https://t.me/ivan_fedorov_melitopol/366

[33] https://www.facebook.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid0YkGyEr7Uqu7XUYCmn1Pe7437RMqcLcMqDZZZ4XuJqX3DXTdDQr17z5mKaBnfPfskl; https://t.me/khersonskaODA/779; https://t.me/spravdi/14968

[34] https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/15419365

[35] https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1012950379374222&ref=sharing; https://suspilne dot media/268843-udari-zsu-na-hersonsini-vplivaut-na-moralnij-stan-ta-boezdatnist-vijsk-rf-gumenuk/; https://t.me/zalpalyanytsya/1288;

 

[36] https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/2667

[37] https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/2667

[38] https://gur dot gov dot ua/content/zrostaie-tysk-rashystiv-na-mistseve-naselennia-tymchasovo-okupovanykh-terytorii.html

[39] https://t.me/BalitskyVGA/164

[40] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-30

[41] https://t.me/kommunist/8173; https://t.me/Aksenov82/1283; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/39094; https://t.me/readovkanews/39916

[42] https://t.me/Stremousov_Kirill/206

[43] https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/15421435?; https://tass dot ru/politika/15420573

[44] https://sprotyv dot mod dot gov dot ua/2022/08/08/rosiyany-stvoryuyut-merezhu-dlya-zboru-pasportnyh-danyh-meshkancziv-tot/

[45] https://sprotyv dot mod dot gov dot ua/2022/08/08/rosiyany-stvoryuyut-merezhu-dlya-zboru-pasportnyh-danyh-meshkancziv-tot/

[46] https://t.me/yellowribbon_ua/959

[47] https://t.me/yellowribbon_ua/964; https://t.me/yellowribbon_ua/970; https://t.me/yellowribbon_ua/971; https://t.me/yellowribbon_ua/977;