Andie Parry, Kelly Campa, Annika Ganzeveld, Alexandra Braverman, Carolyn Moorman, Ria Reddy, Katherine Wells and Brian Carter
The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.
We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
Hezbollah has almost certainly adopted a new tactic in an attempt to evade Israeli air defenses. The development of this tactic is a byproduct of Hezbollah’s year-long learning process during its fires campaign targeting civilian and military sites in northern Israel since October 2023. A preliminary IDF Air Force investigation indicated that Hezbollah launched a combined offensive of drones, rockets, and three precision missiles targeting Haifa at the same time it launched the drone targeting Binyamina.[8] The IDF Navy and Iron Dome intercepted two of the drones near Nahariya and Acre but detection systems lost track of a third drone, a Shahed 107—which ultimately impacted in Binyamina.[9] This tactic of using imprecise indirect fires to distract air defenses and then using precision weapons to strike targets has become common across Iran and its Axis of Resistance in recent years. Hezbollah has used this tactic to distract Israeli air defenses on numerous occasions to allow low-flying drones to enter northern Israel during its year-long campaign.[10] These drone attacks have previously proved difficult for Israeli air defenses to intercept. [11]
Hezbollah likely attempted to replicate the successful October 13 attack by launching three surface-to-surface missiles targeting central Israel at the same time it launched dozens of rockets toward northern Israel on October 14.[12] All three of these missiles were intercepted, but the missiles caused 182 red alerts across central Israel.[13]
Key Takeaways:
- Hezbollah Drone Strike in Israel: Hezbollah’s October 13 drone attack targeting an IDF base is likely part of an effort to impose costs on Israel as Hezbollah faces operational challenges in southern Lebanon. This strike is likely an effort to impose costs on Israel at a time when Hezbollah can conduct only limited defensive operations in southern Lebanon.
- Hezbollah Tactical Adaptation: Hezbollah has almost certainly adopted a new tactic in an attempt to evade Israeli air defenses. The development of this tactic is a byproduct of Hezbollah’s year-long learning process during its fires campaign targeting civilian and military sites in northern Israel since October 2023.
- Iran-Russia: Iranian media reported that Russia will launch two satellites on Iran’s behalf after Iran sent the two satellites to Russia on October 11.
- Iranian Support to Hezbollah: An unspecified Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force member told Kuwait-based newspaper Al Jarida that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed IRGC Quds Force Deputy Commander Mohammad Reza Fallah Zadeh to serve as an operational adviser to Lebanese Hezbollah. CTP-ISW cannot corroborate or verify this claim.
- Iranian Preparations for Israeli Strike: Iran is continuing to coordinate with regional and Axis of Resistance leaders ahead of an expected Israeli retaliatory strike on Iran.
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and the public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
- Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip
Humanitarian aid groups began the second round of the mass polio vaccination campaign in the Gaza Strip on October 14.[41] The Gazan Ministry of Health announced on October 13 that this round of the campaign will consist of three phases that would start in Deir al Balah on October 14.[42] The other phases of the campaign will occur in Khan Younis and Rafah and then Gaza and the northern Gaza Strip. Humanitarian aid groups completed the first round on September 12.[43] Israel and Hamas both agreed to observe limited humanitarian pauses in designated areas of the central, southern, and northern Gaza Strip throughout the first round of the campaign.[44] Neither Hamas nor Israel have publicly agreed to observe limited humanitarian pauses for this round of the campaign at the time of this writing. UNRWA claimed that Israeli forces near the Nuseirat refugee camp fired several tank rounds on October 13 that hit a UNRWA school that humanitarian aid groups had planned to use as an immunization site during the second ground of the campaign.[45] UNRWA head Phillippe Lazzarini said that a UNRWA school in the central Gaza Strip recently hit by an Israeli airstrike was also to be used for the vaccination campaign.[46]
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Prepare for an expanded and protracted conflict with Israel in the near term
- Expel the United States from Syria
This map illustrates individual Israeli air and artillery strikes based on local Lebanese reporting. This map depicts strikes reported from 2:00pm ET on October 13to 2:00pm ET on October 14. This map is not exhaustive. CTP-ISW cannot independently verify the locations of Israeli strikes.
The United Kingdom Foreign, Common & Development Office (FCDO) announced new sanctions on October 14 in response to the October 1 Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel on the following individuals and entities:[104]
- Artesh Commander Major General Abdol Rahim Mousavi
- Artesh Deputy Commander Brigadier General Mohammad Hossein Dadras
- Artesh Coordination Deputy Brigadier General Habibollah Sayyari
- Artesh Air Force Commander Brigadier General Hamid Vahedi
- Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Intelligence Organization Chief Brigadier General Mohammad Kazemi
- IRGC spokesperson Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naini
- Chief Engineer of Farzanegan Propulsion Systems Design Bureau (FPSDB), Hossein Pourfarzaneh
- Farzanegan Propulsion Systems Design Bureau (FPSDB), responsible for producing engine technology for cruise missiles
- The Iranian Space Agency, responsible for launching vehicle technologies for ballistic missile development
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[10] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-25-2024
[11] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-5-2024
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[13] jpost dot com/breaking-news/article-824555 ; https://t.me/IL_RedAlerts/13267
[14] https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-iran-gaza-attack-10-14-24-intl-hnk#cm292gbzm000s3b6mvxqx8zcp
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[21] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-28-2024 ; https://apnews.com/article/russia-iran-satellite-space-launch-vostochny-roscosmos-60e877149748b46a63c597c7e3714be0
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[64] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7689 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7690 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7692 ; https://t.me/sarayajneen/1647
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[93] https://t.me/mmirleb/7876 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7877 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7878 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7879 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7880 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7882 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7883 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7884 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7885 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7893 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7894 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7899 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7900 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7903 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7904 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7910 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7908 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7909 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7911 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7918 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7920
https://t.me/mmirleb/7921 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7922 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7923 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7925 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7926 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7927 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7928 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7929 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7930
[94] https://t.me/mmirleb/7903 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7900 https://t.me/mmirleb/7885
[95] https://t.me/mmirleb/7917
[96] https://t.me/mmirleb/7930 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7928
https://t.me/mmirleb/7929 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7920 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7921 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7922 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7918 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7904 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7899 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7893 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7894 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7883 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7876 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7877 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7878 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7879 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7880 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7882
[97] https://t.me/mmirleb/7921 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7876 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7878 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7879 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7880 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7882
[98] https://www.ipu.org/event/149th-ipu-assembly-and-related-meetings;
https://farsnews dot ir/Rahgozar_b/1728819002843624489/Iran-Speaker-Calls-for-Cutting-Political%2C-Economic-Ties-with-Zionists
[99] https://www.mehrnews dot com/news/6255491
[100] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/07/22/3177154/
[101] https://mehrnews dot com/news/6255862;
https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/07/23/3178641/;
https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/698183
[102] https://mehrnews dot com/news/6255862;
https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/07/23/3178641/;
https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/698183
[103] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2644;
https://www.state.gov/sanctioning-entities-that-have-traded-in-irans-petroleum/
[104] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-announces-sanctions-against-iranian-military-figures-and-organisations-following-attack-on-israel
[105] https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2024/10/14/iran-seven-individuals-and-seven-entities-sanctioned-in-response-to-iran-s-missile-transfer-to-russia/
[106] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/07/23/3178865
[107] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-august-27-2024
[108] https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/1348 ;
https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/1346
[109] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1845771865635098941