Siddhant Kishore, Andie Parry, Carolyn Moorman, Alexandra Braveman, Ria Reddy, Ben Rezaei, Avery Borens, Victoria Penza, and Brian Carter
- Gaza Strip Ceasefire Deal: The Israeli cabinet will vote on the ceasefire-hostage agreement on January 17 after it postponed its vote due to delays in Hamas approving an unresolved issue. Both sides resolved the issue.
- Military Implications for Ceasefire: Hamas will likely use the first phase to reorganize its forces and move cells around the Gaza Strip without Israeli aerial observation. Hamas can only achieve limited reorganization and will be unable to regenerate itself during this period, however. The limited and inadequate regeneration and reorganization Hamas may be able to undertake will almost certainly be wholly insufficient to seriously impede the IDF from achieving any tactical mission it must complete, such as reoccupying the Netzarim Corridor, if the ceasefire collapses.
- Kurdish Coordination: The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) appears to be trying to pressure the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to avoid a full-scale conflict with Turkey and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). Barzani and Abdi also reportedly discussed ways to distance the SDF from the PKK in their meeting on January 16.
- Kurdistan Workers’ Party and the SDF: A PKK official told Reuters that PKK forces would withdraw from Syria if the SDF had joint or solo control of northeastern Syria. The difference in how the SDF and Turkey define the PKK and its role in the SDF makes a ceasefire in northern Syria difficult to obtain. Turkey may define SDF leader Mazloum Abdi, a Syrian and former PKK member, as an active member of the PKK, for example, due to his role within the YPG and SDF. Abdi and the SDF are unlikely to hold the same view.
- Hayat Tahrir al Sham and Israel: Shara said that Israel’s advance into Syria was “due to the presence of Iranian militias and Hezbollah” but that such a “pretext” no longer exists with HTS in power. Interim Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al Shaibani reportedly went further than Shara and said that Syria must ”defend our country and our people.” Shara and Shaibani’s statements were very likely spurred by an IDF Air Force strike on an HTS-affiliated convoy near the Syria-Golan Heights border on January 15 that killed two Public Security Department members as they collected surrendered weapons.
Syria
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Reestablish ground lines of communication from Syria to Lebanon
- Reestablish Iranian influence in Syria
The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) continued to attack US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) positions along the line of control near Tal Tamr on January 16. Anti-SDF media reported that the SNA shelled SDF positions near the line of control near Tal Tamr.[42] The SNA has reportedly deployed forces to the line of control near Tal Tamr since January 8.[43] A Turkish airstrike separately targeted an SDF position south of Tal Abyad on the opposite side of the SNA-controlled Peace Spring area.[44]
US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander General Michael Kurilla also discussed regional security and US-Jordan defense coordination with the Chairman of the Jordanian Joint Chiefs of Staff Major General Yousef al Hnaity and other Jordanian military commanders in Jordan on January 15.[58] Kurilla highlighted Jordanian border security and Jordanian support to the US-led anti-ISIS mission in the meetings.
Iraq
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Strengthen Iranian and Axis of Resistance influence over the Iraqi state and society
- Harden the Iraqi government against internal dissent
US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander General Michael Kurilla discussed the US-led anti-ISIS mission and recent developments in Syria with senior US and Iraqi military leaders in Baghdad on January 15.[64] Kurilla held meetings with Iraqi Army Chief of Staff Abdul Amir Rashid Yarallah, Iraqi Joint Operations Deputy Commander General Qais al Muhammadawi, and Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) Commander Major General Kevin Leahy.
Arabian Peninsula
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Harden the Houthi regime against internal dissent in Houthi-controlled areas
- Destroy the anti-Houthi opposition in order to control all of Yemen
- Erode Israeli will to continue the war in the Gaza Strip
The Palestinian Territories and Lebanon
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and the public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
- Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip
- Rebuild and reestablish Hezbollah in southern Lebanon
- Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel
The IDF Air Force struck "dozens” of Palestinian militia positions across the Gaza Strip on January 15 and 16.[65] Hamas claimed that an IDF airstrike targeted a location where Hamas held a female Israeli hostage.[66] Hamas said the ceasefire deal stipulated that the hostage would be released during the first phase.[67] Hamas did not provide any information about the hostage’s status, however. This statement is likely part of a Hamas information effort aimed at pressuring the Israeli cabinet and swaying Israeli public opinion to support the ceasefire-hostage agreement.
IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi discussed operations in Beit Hanoun with IDF 933rd Infantry Brigade (162nd Division) officers on January 16.[68] Halevi briefed the Israeli soldiers on IDF operations in the Gaza Strip ahead of the ceasefire.
Geolocated footage posted on January 15 showed Israeli forces demolishing infrastructure in the northeastern Jabalia refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip.[69] PIJ mortared Israeli forces in Jabalia refugee camp on January 16.[70]
The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades fired rockets and mortared Israeli forces along the Netzarim Corridor on January 16.[71]
CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.
[1] https://x.com/GLZRadio/status/1879809058015957153 ; https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1879929140914319392 ; https://www.ft.com/content/5dc922d6-5a5d-4d5e-a536-f6ece5164290
[2] https://t.me/moriahdoron/18401 ; https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-quarrel-over-final-details-of-gaza-cease-fire-2fbb837b?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos1
[3] https://www.ft.com/content/5dc922d6-5a5d-4d5e-a536-f6ece5164290 ; https://www.aljazeera dot com/program/newsfeed/2025/1/15/israel-hamas-reach-ceasefire-deal-qatari-pm
[4] https://t.me/moriahdoron/18411
[5] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-15-2025
[6] https://t.me/moriahdoron/18411
[7] https://www.palestinechronicle dot com/the-gaza-ceasefire-agreement-key-points-and-steps-toward-reconstruction/ ; https://www.jpost dot com/israel-news/article-837724
[8] https://www.palestinechronicle dot com/the-gaza-ceasefire-agreement-key-points-and-steps-toward-reconstruction/
[9] https://www.army.mil/article/219390/the_fallacy_and_myth_of_reconstitution
[10] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-13-2025 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/israel-defeating-hamas-destroying-hamas-will-require-post-war-vision
[11] https://www.army.mil/article/219390/the_fallacy_and_myth_of_reconstitution
[12] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-14-2025 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-13-2025 ; https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-has-another-sinwar-and-hes-rebuilding-0a16031d
[13] https://www.alsumaria dot tv/news/politics/512968/%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%85%D9%83%D8%AB%D9%81%D8%A9-%D8%AD%D9%83%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A9-%D9%83%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AA%D8%AF%D8%AE%D9%84-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%AE%D8%B7-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%88%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%B7%D8%A9-%D8%A8%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%88%D9%82%D8%B3%D8%AF
[14] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-15-2025
[15] https://www.rudaw dot net/english/analysis/29062021
[16] https://www.aa dot com.tr/tr/politika/disisleri-bakani-fidan-turkiye-bekasina-yonelik-tum-tehditleri-kaynaginda-yok-etme-gucune-ve-kararliligina-sahiptir/3446537
[17] https://apnews.com/article/kurds-syria-iraq-pkk-sdf-kdp-meeting-0089a12183d690b6afffef0280e9a79c
[18] https://apnews.com/article/kurds-syria-iraq-pkk-sdf-kdp-meeting-0089a12183d690b6afffef0280e9a79c
[19] https://newlinesmag.com/argument/syrias-kurdish-northeast-ratifies-a-new-constitution/
[20] https://www.brussels-school.be/sites/default/files/The%20PYD:YPG%20in%20the%20Syrian%20Conflict-%20Aspirations%20for%20Autonomy%20in%20North-eastern%20Syria.pdf
[21] https://www.alsumaria dot tv/news/politics/512968/%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%85%D9%83%D8%AB%D9%81%D8%A9-%D8%AD%D9%83%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A9-%D9%83%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AA%D8%AF%D8%AE%D9%84-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%AE%D8%B7-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%88%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%B7%D8%A9-%D8%A8%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%88%D9%82%D8%B3%D8%AF
[22] https://apnews.com/article/kurds-syria-iraq-pkk-sdf-kdp-meeting-0089a12183d690b6afffef0280e9a79c
[23] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/pkk-would-leave-syria-if-kurdish-forces-keep-leadership-role-official-says-2025-01-16/
[24] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/pkk-would-leave-syria-if-kurdish-forces-keep-leadership-role-official-says-2025-01-16/
[25] https://isw.pub/IranUpdate010925
[26] https://t.me/G_CSyriaa/299 ; https://x.com/SanaAjel/status/1879886026161938897 ; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syrias-de-facto-leader-says-country-ready-welcome-un-forces-buffer-zone-with-2025-01-16/
[27] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syrias-de-facto-leader-says-country-ready-welcome-un-forces-buffer-zone-with-2025-01-16/
[28] https://x.com/Daraa24_24/status/1879911067351949797 ; https://t.me/damascusv011/27810
[29] https://x.com/netanyahu/status/1865757924594786810
[30] https://x.com/thiqanewsagency/status/1879809668220178876
[31] https://isw.pub/IranUpdate011525
[32] https://x.com/thiqanewsagency/status/1879535233676284395 ; https://x.com/EuphratesPost/status/1879538893047169192
[33] https://x.com/DeirEzzore/status/1879533731490246815
[34] https://x.com/farhad_shami/status/1879870826545307714 ; https://x.com/SOHEB2019/status/1879871037481119945 ; https://x.com/karimfranceschi/status/1879896429801656510
[35] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-8-2025 ; https://isw.pub/IranUpdate011525
[36] https://x.com/aanes__official/status/1876666423894069720
[37] https://x.com/farhad_shami/status/1879885101435138527
[38] https://t.me/HalabTodayTV/119304 ; https://x.com/NPA_Arabic/status/1879834240755630456
[39] https://x.com/andynovy/status/1879580700208500987
[40] https://x.com/SOHEB2019/status/1879861653451559393 ; https://t.me/AbomosaabSharkea/133250
[41] https://t.me/AbomosaabSharkea/133284 ; https://t.me/HalabTodayTV/119323 ; https://x.com/farhad_shami/status/1879983942859644943
[42] https://x.com/SOHEB2019/status/1879825631044936065 ; https://t.me/AbomosaabSharkea/133256
[43] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-8-2025; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-13-2025
[44] https://x.com/SOHEB2019/status/1879661042369958362 ; https://t.me/AbomosaabSharkea/133224
[45] https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1879863222406443021
[46] https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1879858631174467875
[47] https://x.com/Al7khalidi/status/1879670259520811296
[48] https://x.com/EuphratesPost/status/1879651466543235093
[49] https://x.com/homstodaytv/status/494940228491427840
[50] https://x.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1879749910016545030
[51] https://www.counterextremism.com/armed-opposition-groups-nw-syria/sultan-murad-division
[52] https://x.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1879749910016545030
[53] https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/The-Free-Syrian-Army-24MAR.pdf ; https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24403003
[54] https://x.com/GinnySacksMole/status/1866051025062490573
[55] https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/article/homs-cradle-syria-revolution-assad-d8x7zw9xj ; https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-free-syrian-army-a-decentralized-insurgent-brand/
[56] https://x.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1879749910016545030
[57] https://x.com/HussamHamoud/status/1872219572738343012
[58] https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1879871161862873131
[59] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iraq-wants-iran-backed-factions-lay-down-weapons-foreign-minister-says-2025-01-16/
[60] https://baghdadtoday dot news/265996-%D8%A8%D8%B9%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%8B-%D8%B9%D9%86-%D8%AA%D9%81%D9%83%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%87%D8%A7.-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%88%D8%B3%D9%88%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%8A%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%83%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D8%AD%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%84-%D9%88%D8%AD%D8%B5%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AD-%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A9.html
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[62] https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/02/networks-power/03-pmf-set-networks
[63] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/leadership-and-purpose-iraq%E2%80%99s-popular-mobilization-forces#:~:text=The%20PMF%20originated%20as%20part%20of%20the%20effort,largely%20a%20front%20for%20militias%20responsive%20to%20Iran.
[64] https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1879804904450965792
[65] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1879907214179381513
[66] https://alqassam dot ps/arabic/%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%85/20140/%D8%A3%D8%A8%D9%88-%D8%B9%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%AF%D9%88-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%AF%D9%81-%D9%85%D9%83%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AA%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%AF-%D9%81%D9%8A%D9%87-%D8%A3%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%AF%D9%88
[67] https://alqassam dot ps/arabic/%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%85/20140/%D8%A3%D8%A8%D9%88-%D8%B9%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%AF%D9%88-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%AF%D9%81-%D9%85%D9%83%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AA%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%AF-%D9%81%D9%8A%D9%87-%D8%A3%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%AF%D9%88
[68] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/idf-chief-of-staff-visits-northern-gazas-beit-hanoun-briefs-troops-ahead-of-ceasefire/
[69] https://x.com/NemoAnno/status/1879825302991585665
[70] https://t.me/sarayaps/19052
[71] https://t.me/nedalps/4634 ; https://t.me/nedalps/4635
[72] https://x.com/AlakhbarNews/status/1879868198092259464
[73] https://t.me/bintjbeilnews/127481
[74] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-16-2024
[75] https://x.com/AlakhbarNews/status/1879829651834507535 ; https://t.me/alichoeib1970/13042
[76] https://t.me/bintjbeilnews/127504 ; https://t.me/channelnabatieh/111517
; https://t.me/bintjbeilnews/127497 ; https://t.me/bintjbeilnews/127492 ; https://t.me/bintjbeilnews/127484 ; https://t.me/channelnabatieh/111480 ; https://x.com/AlakhbarNews/status/1879824611358970116
[77] https://www.idf dot il/264690
[78] https://www.idf dot il/264690
[79] https://www.idf dot il/264656
[80] https://t.me/sarayaps/19056
[81] https://www.idf dot il/264656
[82] https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/exclusive-one-on-one-with-iran-s-president-extended-interview-229424197852
[83] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-august-27-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-8-2025
[84] kayhan dot ir/fa/news/303945/ ;
https://x.com/Ahmadnaderi_ir/status/1865703381123084489 ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-9-2024 ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-august-21-2024
[85] https://president dot ir/fa/156789
[86] https://president dot ir/fa/156808 ; https://president dot ir/fa/156812 ; https://president dot ir/fa/156806 ; https://president dot ir/fa/156801
[87] https://www.iribnews dot ir/fa/news/4432247
[88] https://www.iribnews dot ir/fa/news/4432247
[89] https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/719969
[90] https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/719709