Nicole Wolkov, Riley Bailey, Davit Gasparyan, Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan
Key Takeaways:
- Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes against an oil depot in Rostov Oblast and missile strikes against fuel storage warehouses in occupied Luhansk City on August 4.
- Ukraine confirmed that it has received the first batch of US-made F-16 fighter jets.
- Russian milbloggers responded to the arrival of F-16s by trying to downplay their potential battlefield effects—directly undermining Russian information operations intended to frame the delivery of F-16s and other Western weapons systems as an uncrossable "red line."
- Russian forces recently made confirmed advances east of Pokrovsk, west of Donetsk City, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
- The Russian defense industry reportedly continues to produce missiles using Western-sourced components.
- Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of three subordinate main efforts)
- Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City
- Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
- Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
- Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
- Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
- Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
- Russian Technological Adaptations
- Activities in Russian-occupied areas
- Ukrainian Defense Industrial Base Efforts
- Russian Information Operations and Narratives
- Significant Activity in Belarus
Positional engagements continued in northern Kharkiv Oblast on August 4, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Ukrainian and Russian sources reported continued fighting north of Kharkiv City near Hlyboke and Lyptsi and northeast of Kharkiv City in and near Vovchansk and near Tykhe.[13] Some Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces are transferring additional reserves to northern Kharkiv Oblast and conducting limited rotations near both Hlyboke and Vovchansk.[14] Ukraine's Kharkiv Group of Forces reported on August 4 that the Russian military command has transferred responsibility for positions in northern Vovchansk from elements of the 4th Volunteer Assault Brigade to elements of the 153rd Tank Regiment (both of the 47th Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army, Moscow Military District [MMD]).[15]
Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on August 4 but did not make any confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported unsuccessful Russian ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka; southeast of Kupyansk near Berestove, Kruhlyakivka, Petropavlivka, Kolisnykivka, Novoosynove, and Hlushkivka; northwest of Svatove near Stelmakhivka; west of Svatove near Andriivka; and northwest of Kreminna near Makiivka, Nevske, and Terny.[16] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are continuing to advance within central Makiivka.[17]
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar on August 2, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian sources continued to discuss Russian combat operations in Zhovtnevyi Microraion (eastern Chasiv Yar) and claimed that Russian forces are clearing newly seized positions in the area.[21] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced north of Chasiv Yar near Kalynivka and claimed that Russian forces seized a Ukrainian stronghold at a key height southeast of Chasiv Yar near Klishchiivka, although ISW has not observed confirmation of these claims.[22] Russian forces continued offensive operations near Kalynivka; northeast of Chasiv Yar near Vasyukivka; east of Chasiv Yar near Ivanivske; southeast of Chasiv Yar near Klishchiivka and Andriivka; and south of Chasiv Yar near Stupochky on August 3 and 4.[23] Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov published footage purporting to show elements of the “Shustry” Detachment of Chechen “Akhmat” Spetsnaz and the Russian 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd LNR AC) operating in the Chasiv Yar direction.[24]
Russian forces reportedly advanced southeast of Toretsk but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in the area on August 4. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced up to a kilometer west of southwestern Zalizne (southeast of Toretsk) and have entered the administrative boundaries of Toretsk, although ISW has not observed confirmation of these claims.[25] Russian forces continued offensive operations near Toretsk, east of Toretsk near Pivnichne, southeast of Toretsk near Zalizne, south of Toretsk near Niu York, and southwest of Toretsk near Panteleymonivka on August 3 and 4.[26]
Russian forces recently advanced east of Pokrovsk and reportedly made further gains in the area on August 4. Geolocated footage published on August 4 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced further within Vesele (east of Pokrovsk) and have seized most of the settlement.[27] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on August 4 that elements of the Russian Central Grouping of Forces seized Novoselivka Persha (southeast of Pokrovsk), but ISW assessed that Russian forces seized the settlement as of July 29.[28] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced up to a kilometer in depth and 2.35 kilometers in width west of Novoselivka Persha towards Mezhove (southeast of Pokrovsk) and advanced further within Ivanivka (east of Pokrovsk).[29] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces entered the northeastern outskirts of Zhelanne (southeast of Pokrovsk) and are approaching the northwestern outskirts of the settlement.[30] Russian forces continued offensive operations northeast of Pokrovsk near Vozdvyzhenka; east of Pokrovsk near Kalynove, Novooleksandrivka, Hrodivka, Vesele, Svyrydonivka, Tymofiivka, Lysychne, and Ivanivka; and southeast of Pokrovsk near Novohrodivka, Novoselivka Persha, Zhelanne, Serhiivka, Mezhove, Skuchne, Yasnobrodivka, and Karlivka on August 3 and 4.[31] The spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction stated that Russian forces rarely conduct mechanized assaults in the area and have been relying on infantry heavy tactics since June 2024.[32] Elements of the Russian 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st Combined Arms Army [CAA], Central Military District [CMD]) are reportedly operating in the Pokrovsk direction.[33]
Russian forces recently advanced west of Donetsk City and continued offensive operations west and southwest of Donetsk City on August 4. Geolocated footage published on August 4 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced further within northern Krasnohorivka (west of Donetsk City) and within southeastern Kostyantynivka (southwest of Donetsk City).[34] Russian milbloggers claimed on August 3 and 4 that Russian forces advanced further on the northwestern outskirts of Krasnohorivka and have intensified assaults on Kostyantynivka following significant Russian artillery preparation in the area.[35] Russian forces continued offensive operations west of Donetsk City near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka and southwest of Donetsk City near Kostyantynivka, Paraskoviivka, and Vodyane on August 3 and 4.[36] Elements of the Russian 238th Artillery Brigade and 20th Motorized Rifle Division (both of the 8th CAA, Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating in the direction of Romanivka (southwest of Donetsk City).[37] Elements of the Russian 57th Motorized Rifle Brigade (6th Motorized Rifle Division, 3rd AC) are reportedly operating near Vuhledar (southwest of Donetsk City).[38]
Russian forces continued ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 3 but did not make any confirmed advances. Russian forces attacked near Robotyne; north of Robotyne near Novodanylivka; and northeast of Robotyne near Mala Tokmachka on August 3 and 4.[42]
Satellite imagery indicates that Ukrainian forces likely damaged one S-400 launcher and destroyed another S-400 launcher near occupied Kush-Kaya, Crimea in an August 2 missile strike.[45] A Crimea-focused Telegram channel claimed that the August 2 Ukrainian strikes against the Russian Black Sea Fleet's Rostov-on-Don Kilo-class submarine at the Sevastopol port did not sink the submarine.[46] Commercially available satellite imagery via Planet Labs PBC captured on August 2 suggests that Ukrainian forces damaged the submarine, but ISW cannot yet independently verify reports that the Ukrainian strike destroyed the submarine, nor the extent of damage the strike inflicted.[47] Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk reported on August 4 that Russian forces are essentially no longer using two of the five Russian military airfields in occupied Crimea after recent Ukrainian strikes against the peninsula.[48]
[1] https://t.me/astrapress/61170
[2] https://t.me/golubev_vu/1471 ; https://t.me/golubev_vu/1472
[3] https://t.me/glava_lnr_info/2720
[4] https://t.me/glava_lnr_info/2720
[5] https://t.me/rusich_army/16242 ; https://x.com/666_mancer/status/1820093998914007355 ; https://t.me/milinfolive/127536 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/73976
[6] https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/20453
[7] https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/11283;
[8] https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/08/04/how-much-of-a-difference-will-ukraines-new-f-16s-make https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/11283; https://x.com/666_mancer/status/1820103944435007620
[9] https://isw.pub/IranUpdate080122; https://isw.pub/UkrWar071624; https://isw.pub/UkrWar062224
[10] https://t.me/rybar/62428; https://t.me/fighter_bomber/17621; https://t.me/sashakots/48196
[11] https://tass dot com/politics/1620545; https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-alexander-grushko-warns-west-f16-jets-ukraine-carries-enormous-risks-tass/
[12] https://isw.pub/UkrWar060724; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-9-2024;
[13] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02nDkmJAb9uJKoyHFY67Pd7sqsvuyvZWvwDgJGsDyztSqaNYFDpWcb33wV1kf2kiQgl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Eptso5toCPnzwV2eRV96JdodRqrYwyxvRfrRarr8wjBTiUQBhwLML9RA5BztPtoql; https://t.me/otukharkiv/562; https://t.me/wargonzo/21370; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/13347; https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/11098; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/13345; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/73947; https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/11098
[14] https://t.me/wargonzo/21370 ; https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/11098
[15] https://t.me/otukharkiv/562
[16] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02nDkmJAb9uJKoyHFY67Pd7sqsvuyvZWvwDgJGsDyztSqaNYFDpWcb33wV1kf2kiQgl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Eptso5toCPnzwV2eRV96JdodRqrYwyxvRfrRarr8wjBTiUQBhwLML9RA5BztPtoql
[17] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/73947
[18]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02nDkmJAb9uJKoyHFY67Pd7sqsvuyvZWvwDgJGsDyztSqaNYFDpWcb33wV1kf2kiQgl; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Eptso5toCPnzwV2eRV96JdodRqrYwyxvRfrRarr8wjBTiUQBhwLML9RA5BztPtoql ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0U5WwSgcnVbyoWW6Be7iK2zHzuMeots5pUiGSoRizuKN4i4Y9XRQLvR3nZqJEqjcnl; https://t.me/rusich_army/16235
[19] https://t.me/evgeniy_lisitsyn/11206; https://t.me/sashakots/48195
[20] https://t.me/sons_fatherland/16002
[21] https://t.me/rybar/62414; https://t.me/motopatriot/25821
[22] https://t.me/rybar/62414; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/13366
[23]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02nDkmJAb9uJKoyHFY67Pd7sqsvuyvZWvwDgJGsDyztSqaNYFDpWcb33wV1kf2kiQgl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Eptso5toCPnzwV2eRV96JdodRqrYwyxvRfrRarr8wjBTiUQBhwLML9RA5BztPtoql; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0U5WwSgcnVbyoWW6Be7iK2zHzuMeots5pUiGSoRizuKN4i4Y9XRQLvR3nZqJEqjcnl; https://t.me/mod_russia/41780; https://t.me/mod_russia/41786; https://t.me/wargonzo/21370;
[24] https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/4970
[25] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6246 ; https://t.me/z_arhiv/27511
[26] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02nDkmJAb9uJKoyHFY67Pd7sqsvuyvZWvwDgJGsDyztSqaNYFDpWcb33wV1kf2kiQgl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Eptso5toCPnzwV2eRV96JdodRqrYwyxvRfrRarr8wjBTiUQBhwLML9RA5BztPtoql ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0U5WwSgcnVbyoWW6Be7iK2zHzuMeots5pUiGSoRizuKN4i4Y9XRQLvR3nZqJEqjcnl ; https://t.me/wargonzo/21370
[27] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6247; https://t.me/Gvardeiskaia30OMSBR/177
[28] https://t.me/mod_russia/41787 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-29-2024
[29] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/73947 ; https://t.me/z_arhiv/27509
[30] https://t.me/NgP_raZVedka/18539
[31] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02nDkmJAb9uJKoyHFY67Pd7sqsvuyvZWvwDgJGsDyztSqaNYFDpWcb33wV1kf2kiQgl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Eptso5toCPnzwV2eRV96JdodRqrYwyxvRfrRarr8wjBTiUQBhwLML9RA5BztPtoql ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0U5WwSgcnVbyoWW6Be7iK2zHzuMeots5pUiGSoRizuKN4i4Y9XRQLvR3nZqJEqjcnl ; https://t.me/NgP_raZVedka/18539 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/21370 ;
[32] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/08/04/u-sylah-oborony-rozpovily-yak-pokrovskyj-napryamok-kyshyt-rosiyanamy/
[33] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/132289
[34] https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/846 ; https://x.com/AF_LABS1/status/1820050165706653725 ; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6253; https://t.me/odshbr79/261
[35] https://t.me/NgP_raZVedka/18535 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/13344 ; https://t.me/motopatriot/25812
[36] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02nDkmJAb9uJKoyHFY67Pd7sqsvuyvZWvwDgJGsDyztSqaNYFDpWcb33wV1kf2kiQgl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Eptso5toCPnzwV2eRV96JdodRqrYwyxvRfrRarr8wjBTiUQBhwLML9RA5BztPtoql ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0U5WwSgcnVbyoWW6Be7iK2zHzuMeots5pUiGSoRizuKN4i4Y9XRQLvR3nZqJEqjcnl ; https://t.me/wargonzo/21370 ; https://t.me/NgP_raZVedka/18535 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/13344 ; https://t.me/motopatriot/25812
[37] https://t.me/nm_dnr/12544
[38] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/73928
[39] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/6254;
[40] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02nDkmJAb9uJKoyHFY67Pd7sqsvuyvZWvwDgJGsDyztSqaNYFDpWcb33wV1kf2kiQgl
[41] https://t.me/voin_dv/10103 ; https://t.me/voin_dv/10101
[42] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02nDkmJAb9uJKoyHFY67Pd7sqsvuyvZWvwDgJGsDyztSqaNYFDpWcb33wV1kf2kiQgl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Eptso5toCPnzwV2eRV96JdodRqrYwyxvRfrRarr8wjBTiUQBhwLML9RA5BztPtoql ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0U5WwSgcnVbyoWW6Be7iK2zHzuMeots5pUiGSoRizuKN4i4Y9XRQLvR3nZqJEqjcnl ; https://t.me/wargonzo/21370
[43] https://t.me/mod_russia/41785
[44] https://t.me/mod_russia/41768
[45] https://t.me/kiber_boroshno/9308 ; https://t.me/Crimeanwind/64940
[46] https://t.me/Crimeanwind/64944
[47] Imagery Courtesy of Planet Labs PBC.
[48] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/08/04/u-krymu-na-dvoh-aerodromah-v-okupantiv-majzhe-ne-lyshylosya-litakiv/
[49] https://t.me/ComAFUA/368
[50] https://suspilne dot media/poltava/806009-u-mirgorodskij-tg-na-poltavsini-vnaslidok-obstrilu-poskodzeno-40-budinkiv/; https://t.me/UkrzalInfo/5932
[51] https://x.com/MVS_UA/status/1820010455596700124; https://t.me/UA_National_Police/26233
[52] https://t.me/Mestb_Dobroj_Voli/12054 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/48738
[53] https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/sanctions-and-reality-western-techs ; https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1819960215514624483
[54] https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/239f756e2e6b49a5bec78f5c5248bf3d
[55] https://tass dot ru/politika/21526839 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/264294
[56] https://t.me/tass_agency/264295
[57] https://t.me/vysokygovorit/16752 ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/132316 ; https://t.me/svarschiki/9939 ; https://t.me/rybar/62423
[58] https://kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1368&page=8