Johanna Moore, Alexandra Braverman, Ria Reddy, and Nicholas Carl
Information Cutoff: 2:00pm ET
The
Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored
activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US
forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the
stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical
Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly
based on regional events. Click here
to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This
map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
CTP-ISW
defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that
Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came
to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state,
semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their
collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the
alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels
of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some
degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional
proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others
are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of
the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives,
which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from
the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these
objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have
become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.
We
do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are
well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military
operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn
violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and
crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these
reports.
Hamas has rejected optimism from US
and international mediators that a ceasefire-hostage agreement is close
to being reached.[1] Hamas stated that there has been no
progress on ceasefire-hostage talks and accused the United States of
selling a “false positive atmosphere.”[2]
Hamas restated its demand on August 16 that negotiations return to the
Hamas’ July 2024 proposal after talks in Doha concluded. Hamas listed
its demands for a full Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdrawal from the
Gaza Strip, a “real [hostage-prisoner exchange] deal,” and humanitarian
aid for the Gaza Strip. Unspecified sources “familiar with the matter”
claimed that Hamas suggested that it is willing to speak with mediators
if “significant progress” was made during the talks in Doha on August 15
and 16.[3]
It is unclear whether the ceasefire talks met this threshold. Israeli
mediators are “cautiously optimistic” that ceasefire negotiations will
advance.[4]
Israel, however, insists that Israeli forces retain control over the
Philadelphi Corridor, which is incompatible with Hamas’ demand for a
full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.[5]
Lower-level talks will continue into next week to resolve outstanding
demands between Israel and Hamas ahead of a second round of talks in
Cairo, Egypt.[6]
The
United States and foreign mediators are maintaining pressure on Iran to
delay an attack targeting Israel by threatening Iran and highlighting
reported ceasefire progress. Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign
Affairs Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani highlighted progress
in ceasefire-hostage negotiations during phone calls with acting Iranian
Foreign Affairs Minister Ali Bagheri Kani following talks in Doha on
August 15 and 16.[7]
Al Thani warned Bagheri Kani of unspecified consequences if Iran
attacked Israel during negotiations in retaliation for Israel killing
Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. An unspecified US official speaking to
reporters stated that Iran could face “cataclysmic” consequences if it
derailed negotiations by conducting a retaliatory strike on Israel.[8] US, Israeli, and Iranian officials cited by the New York Times on August 16 said that Iran is expected to delay its retaliatory strike during ceasefire negotiations.[9]
US President Joe Biden reportedly views the deal as the “key. . . to
preventing a regional war,” and he said that he “expects” that Iranian
leaders will delay or indefinitely postpone a strike if a ceasefire
agreement is reached.[10]
It remains unclear if “hold off” means that Iranian leaders would
decline to mount any retaliatory strike on Israel or just that Iran
would delay its strike.
Key Takeaways:
Gaza Strip
Axis of Resistance objectives:
The
IDF announced new evacuation orders for Salah ad Din, al Farouk, and al
Amal neighborhoods in al Maghazi area on August 17.[11] The
IDF reported that Israeli forces will operate in these neighborhoods to
target Palestinian fighters launching rockets from the area. CTP-ISW
previously noted that the IDF has not conducted clearing operations in
all the recent evacuation zones it has identified, suggesting the
evacuation orders are no longer a reliable indicator for imminent
Israeli ground operations in a sector of the Gaza Strip.[12]
The IDF 252nd Division targeted Palestinian fighters during clearing operations around the Netzarim Corridor on August 17.[13] Israeli
forces directed an airstrike targeting a fighter who fired on Israeli
forces. Israeli naval forces struck multiple Palestinian fighters who
posed a threat to the 252nd Division. Palestinian fighters launched
rockets and mortars at IDF combat outposts around the Netzarim Corridor.[14]
The IDF 98th Division expanded its clearing operation in Khan Younis on August 17.[15] Israeli
forces located and destroyed Hamas infrastructure and engaged
Palestinian fighters. The IDF Air Force killed the Hamas fighters in
Khan Younis who launched the salvo of rockets at Nirim on August 16.[16]
The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades—the self-proclaimed militant wing of
Fatah—launched rockets and mortars at Israeli forces reportedly
operating in Abu Hadaf neighborhood, northeast of Khan Younis.[17]
The
IDF 162nd Division targeted militia infrastructure and killed
Palestinian fighters during clearing operations in Tal al Sultan, Rafah
on August 17.[18] The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine mortared Israeli forces west of Rafah in Tal Zoroub.[19]
The National Resistance Brigades fired a rocket propelled grenade (RPG)
at an IDF bulldozer in Saudi neighborhood, Tal al Sultan.[20]
The
IDF Air Force struck approximately 40 militia targets, including
militia buildings and weapons depots, in the Gaza Strip since CTP-ISW's
last data cut off on August 16.[21]
Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) launched a salvo of rockets at Reim in southern Israel on August 17.[22]
Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.
West Bank
Axis of Resistance objectives:
Israeli
forces engaged Palestinian fighters in at least two locations in the
West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on August 16.[23] The al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades fired small arms at the Avnei Hefetz settlement in the northern West Bank.[24]
Six Israeli settlers tried to enter Rujeib village, Nablus, on August 17.[25] Some
settlers had masks and pepper spray. An IDF unit intercepted the
settlers before they reached Rujeib. This incident comes two days after
dozens of armed Israeli settlers stormed a village near Nablus, killing
one Palestinian individual.[26]
This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.
Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Deter Israel from conducting a ground operation into Lebanon
- Prepare for an expanded and protracted conflict with Israel in the near term
- Expel the United States from Syria
Iranian-backed
militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted at least seven
attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on August
16.[27] Hezbollah launched at least 55 rockets into northern Israel on August 17.[28] Hezbollah targeted kibbutz Ayelet HaShahar approximately 10 kilometers from the border.[29]
Israeli media reported that this kibbutz has not been evacuated, but
that no injuries were reported following the barrage of rockets.[30]
Hezbollah claimed it launched the attack in response to an IDF
airstrike on a weapons storage depot in Nabatieh, Lebanon, on August 16
that killed at least 10 Syrian nationals in Lebanon.[31]
The IDF killed Hezbollah Radwan commander Hussein Ibrahim Kassab in an airstrike in Tyre, Lebanon, on August 17.[32] The Radwan unit is Hezbollah’s elite commando force and is designed to conduct ground operations into Israel.[33]
Likely Iranian-backed militants conducted a drone attack on Misgav Am on August 17, moderately wounding two IDF soldiers.[34]
Iran and the Axis of Resistance
US Central Command (CENTCOM) destroyed a Houthi naval attack drone in the Red Sea on August 16.[35]
[1] https://www.axios.com/2024/08/17/gaza-hostage-ceasefire-deal-biden-next-week ; https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/16/world/middleeast/iran-israel-hamas-cease-fire.html ; https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/16/israel-gaza-war-ceasefire-news-hamas/
[2] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5ydpwe520go ; https://x.com/AlArabiya_Eng/status/1824477738213773680
[3] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/16/world/middleeast/iran-israel-hamas-cease-fire.html
[4] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/pms-office-israeli-negotiators-expressed-cautious-optimism-about-hostage-deal/
[5] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/israeli-delegation-to-travel-to-cairo-to-discuss-rafah-crossing-today-report/
[6] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/16/israel-gaza-war-ceasefire-news-hamas/
[7] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/16/israel-gaza-war-ceasefire-news-hamas/ ; https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/05/27/3142923/ ; https://www.isna dot ir/news/1403052617508/ ; https://mfa.gov dot ir/portal/newsview/751755
[8] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/us-official-warns-iran-of-cataclysmic-consequences-if-it-attacks-israel/
[9] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/16/world/middleeast/iran-israel-hamas-cease-fire.html
[10] https://www.axios.com/2024/08/14/gaza-ceasefire-hostage-deal-talks-us-pressure ; https://www.axios.com/2024/08/13/iran-israel-attack-gaza-hostage-ceasefire-deal-biden
[11] https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1824684279055401245
[12] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-7-2024 ; https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1820426898121392226 ; https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1820087158113239487 ; https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1817066755501572406 ; https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1817566489676791840
[13] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1824713236530290814
[14] https://t.me/nedalps/4359 ; https://t.me/alwya2000/6664 ; https://t.me/darebmojahden/5062
[15] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1824713290997452989
[16] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1824713300556275848 ; https://t.me/moriahdoron/12934
[17] https://t.me/nedalps/4361
[18] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1824713305090400293
[19] https://t.me/abualiajel/326
[20] https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4388
[21] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1824713305090400293
[22] https://t.me/sarayaps/18476
[23] https://t.me/sarayatulkarm/548 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7114
[24] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7113
[25] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/idf-troops-said-to-detain-masked-israeli-attempting-to-enter-palestinian-town/
[26] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-august-16-2024
[27] https://t.me/mmirleb/6150 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6155
; https://t.me/mmirleb/6157 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6161 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6164 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6166 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6168
[28] https://www.timesofisrael
dot
com/at-least-said-10-killed-in-southern-lebanon-as-idf-targets-hezbollah-arms-depot/
; https://x.com/IDF/status/1824751235003457725
[29] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/at-least-said-10-killed-in-southern-lebanon-as-idf-targets-hezbollah-arms-depot/ ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6155
[30] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/at-least-said-10-killed-in-southern-lebanon-as-idf-targets-hezbollah-arms-depot/
[31] https://t.me/mmirleb/6155 ; https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/17/middleeast/israel-strikes-nabatiyeh-southern-lebanon-intl/index.html
; https://www.i24news dot
tv/en/news/israel-at-war/artc-hezbollah-launches-55-rocket-barrage-at-northern-israeli-kibbutz-live-blog
; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1824669349568782377 ; https://x.com/GLZRadio/status/1824609052082540882
[32] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1824775660369264792
[33] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/15/who-are-radwan-force-hezbollah/
[34] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/hospital-says-2-soldiers-hurt-in-apparent-drone-attack-in-light-and-moderate-condition/
[35] https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1824616312909467827
