By: Joan O'Bryan
The
intensifying Turkish-Kurdish war in Syria and Turkey is spilling over to
the European countries to which these ethnic and linguistic groups have
immigrated. Violent attacks by Kurdish youth groups have increased
across Europe after Turkey arrested fifteen parliamentarians from the
pro-Kurdish People’s
Democratic Party (HDP) on November 3, 2016. The continued attacks
alongside Kurdish protests have the potential to further damage already fraught
relationships between the European Union and Turkey.
Violent
attacks by Kurdish youth groups have increased across Europe after Turkey arrested
twelve parliamentarians from the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) on November 3. The Apoist
Youth Initiative (AYI), a Europe-based Kurdish nationalist group formed in the
summer of 2015, has claimed
six
attacks
on Turkish-owned business and organizations in Germany
and two attacks in England
since November 3, and unknown activists have committed three additional attacks
in solidarity in Spain
and France.
The attacks have increased in frequency and intensity, and the embassies and
consulates of the Republic of Turkey are increasingly likely targets.
Concurrently,
the Kurdish diaspora populations have protested in major cities in Germany, Belgium,
Switzerland,
and France.
Alawite
populations in Europe have also joined the protests in support of Turkish
Alawites, who as Shi’a
Muslims fear the ruling Sunni Justice and Development Party (AKP). Protests in
Cologne, Germany are growing, from attracting thousands
on November 5 to tens
of thousands on November 12. Germany is the center of the Kurdish diaspora,
with a population of at least 700,000
ethnic Kurds. France has the second largest population of ethnic Kurds, numbering
at least 120,000.
Turkish
state media has attributed
all the attacks and demonstrations to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) – a designated terrorist
group which is currently fighting an active insurgency against
Turkey. On November 16, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused
Germany of giving the PKK support “implicitly
or explicitly.” He
then accused Belgium of supporting anti-Turkish militants, calling it “an important center for
[the] PKK.” Erdogan’s accusations against
the European governments are overstated, but the unrest does show some links to
the PKK. The AYI openly seeks
the release of PKK founder Abdullah Öcalan,
who has been imprisoned in Turkey since 1999. At the demonstrations, protestors
have been carrying placards with Öcalan’s picture. Although
European governments have condemned the arrests, they have yet to respond to
the protests or attacks officially.
Indicators
that the unrest will continue are continued calls for protests by leaders
of the Kurdish diaspora. The situation could escalate if the AYI injures a
Turkish national. Additionally, if Erdogan-loyal Turkish populations begin
counter-protesting, the likelihood for violence is high. The continued AYI attacks and Kurdish
protests have the potential to further damage the already fraught relationships
between the European Union and Turkey.
European
governments will attempt to prevent attacks on consulates but will not suppress
Kurdish protests due to protection of free speech, angering a repressive
Erdogan. European failure to protect Turkish property or to denounce protest
movements could further damage European-Turkish relations. This burgeoning
problem could undermine the March 18, 2016 deal
between the EU and Turkey, wherein Turkey promised to stem the flow of refugees
to Europe in exchange for financial aid, visa-free travel for Turkish citizens,
and additional progress towards EU membership. Additionally, soured
relationships, as indicated by further statements by Erdogan, could hinder
cooperation between Europe and Turkey on the anti-ISIS campaign in Iraq and
Syria and further Turkish-Russian rapprochement.
