By Genevieve
Casagrande
The composition and behavior of the force that recaptures ar-Raqqah
City will in part determine the long-term success of the U.S.-led anti-ISIS
campaign in Syria. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is the U.S.’s most
effective partner fighting ISIS in Syria, but it has limitations that risk
undermining the gains it makes on the ground. The SDF, although dominated by
the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), is not monolithic. The SDF coalition
consists of Kurdish, Arab, Syriac Christian, and Turkmen groups. The U.S. built
the SDF
in late 2015 by recruiting a “Syrian Arab Coalition” to fight alongside the
YPG and other local militias. The SDF continued to attract Arab fighters in the
lead up to operations against ISIS in ar-Raqqah, including the recent inclusion
of members of the Free Officer’s
Union, a
group of several high-ranking Syrian Arab Army defectors, in October 2016.
The YPG nonetheless continues to dominate the SDF, despite
increased efforts by the U.S. to diversify the coalition and recruit additional
Arab fighters. The SDF remains dependent upon the YPG for logistics and
experienced fighters, providing the YPG with outsized leverage within the
coalition. Turkey considers the YPG to be a terrorist organization due to the
group’s ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), placing the SDF in
direct conflict with Turkey. Local Arab and Turkmen populations in northern
Syria also oppose the YPG, accusing the group of “ethnic
cleansing” and forcibly displacing local communities. Moreover, the YPG’s
political wing, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), intends to create a
semi-autonomous federal region in northern Syria, which Turkey, Arab
opposition groups, and other Kurdish parties oppose. The SDF’s effort to advance
towards ar-Raqqah City and thereby expand Kurdish influence further into
traditionally Arab terrain threatens to exacerbate these tensions and escalate
into a more violent Arab-Kurdish and intra-Kurdish struggle in the region.
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