By Jonathan Mautner
Russia continued to conduct a
limited air campaign likely designed to set conditions for a coordinated
pro-regime offensive against opposition-held districts of Aleppo City. The
Russian ‘Admiral Kuznetsov’ – an aircraft carrier carrying a contingent
of Su-33
and MiG-29K/KUB
fighter jets allegedly equipped with precision-guided
munitions – arrived off the Syrian Coast on or around November 9. The ‘Admiral
Kuznetsov’ and its battlegroup of missile cruisers and up to three
submarines equipped with ‘Kalibr’ long-range cruise
missiles will reportedly conduct ‘training exercises’ in the waters between
Cyprus and Greece from November 10 – 15 and November 17 – 22.[i] Russia will likely use the ‘training exercises’ to obscure an aggressive
assault on Aleppo City that leverages the Kuznetsov in a projection of
force against “terrorism” and thereby bolsters domestic support for its
operations in Syria. The carrier, however, will not likely provide sufficient
military capability to achieve an immediate victory for Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad in Aleppo City; rather, Russia will use the escalation in support of a
long-term strategy to render the city uninhabitable and depopulate its
opposition-held districts. Russia used its air campaign to target core
opposition terrain in Idlib
Province and Western Aleppo
Province in advance of the carrier’s arrival, hindering the movement of opposition
forces vying to reinforce besieged Aleppo City. Russia also conducted targeted airstrikes
in support of pro-regime forces on the southwestern outskirts of Aleppo City
after opposition factions launched a new operation to break the siege of the
city on October 28. Although limited, these strikes blunted the opposition
offensive, preserving the siege and rendering opposition-held districts
increasingly vulnerable to the upcoming escalation.
In advance of the expected
escalation in Aleppo City, Russia also continued to cultivate the false
perception that it is intervening in order to defend civilian populations in
regime-held western Aleppo City against aggression from the opposition. Russian
Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu accused
opposition forces on November 1 of regularly targeting “peaceful civilians” in
Aleppo City since the start of a series of humanitarian pauses twelve days before,
stating
that “prospects for the start of a negotiation process” to end the Syrian Civil
War have been “postponed for an indefinite period” due to the ongoing attacks.
In effect, Russia conditioned the resumption of its air campaign in Aleppo City
on the basis of a red line that the opposition had already crossed, highlighting
its continuing efforts to portray its operations in the city as a legitimate
response to opposition provocation. With this purported justification in hand, Russia
will likely exploit international focus on the recent U.S. presidential election
in order to renew concerted efforts to force the ultimate surrender of
opposition groups in Aleppo City.
The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, statements by Russian and Western officials, and documentation of Russian airstrikes through social media. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties.
High-Confidence Reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated by documentation from opposition factions and activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible that demonstrate a number of key indicators of Russian airstrikes.
Low-Confidence Reporting. ISW places low confidence in reports corroborated only by multiple secondary sources, including from local Syrian activist networks deemed credible or Syrian state-run media.
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