By: Caitlin Forrest
Taliban militants’ military successes during their 2016 campaign,
Operation Omari demonstrate requirements for U.S. policy in Afghanistan. The
ANSF is incapable of securing major population centers like Lashkar Gah or
Kunduz cities or increasing government-controlled territory without significant
U.S. support. The ANSF remains highly dependent on current levels of U.S.
support to regenerate units and secure government-controlled territory.
Resolute Support Commander General John Nicholson stated on September
23 that the Afghan government controls or heavily influences 68- 70% of the
population, and Taliban militants control 10% of the population, leaving
roughly a quarter of the country contested. The continued expansion of
ungoverned spaces in Afghanistan allows global extremist networks like al Qaeda
and ISIS and their allies to carve out sanctuaries from which to target the
U.S. and its national security interests.
The ANSF is incapable of recapturing significant swaths of
Taliban-controlled territory at current levels of U.S. support. The Taliban
offensive, Operation Omari is still underway as of November 23. The summer offensive
transitioned into a new phase in September that ended when Taliban militants
launched multiple concurrent offensives to seize four provincial capitals in
October. The ANSF, with vital U.S. support, successfully prevented Taliban
militants from capturing the provincial capitals of Helmand, Kunduz, Farah, and
Uruzgan during this phase. Taliban militant offensives nevertheless subverted
the ANSF’s ability to seize territory from militants, allowing militants to
expand their territorial control and threaten remote districts outside of major
population centers. Operation Omari did not culminate in October and is
continuing into its third phase. Militants have expanded control in remote
areas of northern Sar-e Pul Province and threatened a district center in
western Farah Province in November while the ANSF prepared to launch the second
phase of their 2016 counteroffensive in the eastern provinces. Taliban
militants will attempt to besiege provincial
capitals in order to pin down the ANSF there through the winter.
U.S. training, assistance, and funding are essential to helping the
ANSF weather the loss of combat effectiveness from high operational tempo,
significant casualties, and degradation of unit cohesion. The ANSF will reportedly
undergo a U.S.-led
force regeneration during the upcoming 2016-2017
winter season after incurring high casualties and defections. This regeneration
will limit the ANSF’s ability to go on the offensive during this winter season.
Taliban
militants will take advantage of the ANSF’s pause during regeneration to expand
territorial control and launch ground offensives against district centers.
Taliban militants previously launched an aggressive offensive over
the 2015-2016 winter season in which they made significant gains in Helmand
Province. They will likely attempt to repeat similar successes during the
upcoming 2016-2017 winter season while the ANSF rests and refits units.
Meanwhile,
spoilers are undermining the U.S.-backed Afghan National Unity Government,
weakening its ability to secure the country. Northern warlord and First Vice
President Abdul Rashid Dostum is attempting to integrate his personal militias
with the ANSF, which would impede U.S. operations in northern Afghanistan.
Separately, the lower house of Parliament has dismissed several cabinet members
in votes of no confidence between November 12 and November 23, which followed the
missed deadlines for a Constitutional Loya
Jirga and Parliamentary elections in September and October. The National
Unity Government is incapable of closing the readiness gaps of the ANSF in the
face of these compounding challenges despite continued U.S. support. Taliban
militants and extremist networks like al Qaeda, ISIS, and the Haqqani Network
will exploit the security gaps created by the volatile political environment in
Afghanistan in order to reconstitute sanctuaries from which to target the U.S.,
its allies, and its interests.
Correction: A city marker was incorrectly placed on the map that depicted Bakwah District Center, Farah Province as Taliban-Controlled. It has been removed as of February 8th, 2017. Taliban militants have significant area control in the district, but ISW does not assess that Taliban militants controlled the Bakwah District Center over the reporting period.