By
Daniel Pitcairn, Hugo Spaulding, and Daniel Urchick
Key Take-away: Ukraine’s local elections strengthened pro-Russian factions and local oligarchs in its southern and eastern regions, offering Moscow an opportunity for greater influence in the post-revolution political order.
Local elections on October 25 exposed
cracks in post-revolution Ukraine that Russia may exploit. Candidates linked to former Ukrainian President
Viktor Yanukovych and prominent oligarchs that rival current President Petro
Poroshenko earned more support than the president’s faction in the south and
east of the country, areas that are vulnerable to Russian political
destabilization. Former Yanukovych allies with ties to the Dnipropetrovsk-based owner of Ukraine’s largest bank
Ihor Kolomoyskyi earned crucial victories in the Black Sea port city of Odesa and
Ukraine’s second largest city of Kharkiv. Mafia-linked Hennadiy Trukhanov was reelected in Odesa, marking a setback for
Poroshenko, who has tried to overhaul the region historically plagued by
organized crime with the help of provincial governor and reformist former
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. Former Yanukovych ally Hennadiy Kernes
was reelected in the key northeastern city of Kharkiv after
allying with a Kolomoyskyi-backed party that reportedly earned a majority of seats in the city council. Two mayoral
candidates from the pro-Russian “Opposition Bloc” and one candidate backed by Donetsk-based
former Yanukovych ally and Ukraine’s richest man Rinat Akhmetov earned berths
in runoff elections on November 15 in the provincial
capitals of Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhia. The “Opposition Bloc” also earned victories inside government-held areas of Donetsk
and Luhansk Oblasts, including in the two previously separatist-controlled
cities of Sloviansk and Lysychansk. Government authorities postponed elections
in the key port city of Mariupol following allegations of ballot fraud
favoring pro-Russian candidates backed by Akhmetov. These results highlight the
challenges faced by Poroshenko’s pro-Western government in asserting control outside
the western and central regions of Ukraine, where it largely preserved its influence.
Ihor Kolomoyskyi’s stronghold of
Dnipropetrovsk has become the epicenter of competition between Poroshenko and
his rivals since the October 25 elections. Poroshenko’s government reportedly backed the “Opposition Bloc” candidate and former deputy prime
minister under Viktor Yanukovych Oleksandr Vilkul over the Kolomoyskyi-backed
candidate, who will contest a runoff election on November 15. The Security
Service of Ukraine (SBU) launched a “large-scale special operation” to detain Hennadiy Korban, a close
associate of Kolomoyskyi and the leader of the oligarch’s UKROP (Ukrainian
Association of Patriots) party, and his associates linked to organized crime in the southeastern city of Dnipropetrovsk on October 31. Hundreds
of demonstrators gathered in Dnipropetrovsk to protest the arrest while a smaller protest was held in Kyiv against Poroshenko’s Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin, who was involved in organizing the
arrest and is seen as an impediment to anti-corruption efforts. The timing of the arrest may indicate the
intent of Poroshenko’s government to influence the outcome of the run-off
election. Poroshenko’s rivalry with
Kolomoyskyi previously escalated in March 2015, when Kolomoyskyi was deposed as
Dnipropetrovsk governor along with his deputy, Hennadiy Korban. Kolomoyskyi was widely credited with preventing
a Russian-backed separatist movement from taking hold of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
in March 2014. The efforts of Poroshenko’s government to root out his rival
from the key region could directly lead to the expansion of a Russian
influence.
The success of candidates receptive to
Russia in southern and eastern Ukraine highlights the risk Poroshenko faces as
he moves forward with the decentralization measures required by the “Minsk II”
ceasefire agreement. If implemented, decentralization would offer greater authority
to local officials, including those who oppose Poroshenko’s government in Kyiv
and maintain ties with Moscow. Decentralization, in its proposed form, will grant
broader fiscal powers to local governments rather than granting autonomy to
Ukraine’s provinces, distinguishing it from the more debilitating
federalization Russia initially pursued. Nevertheless, strengthened local governments in opposition
to Poroshenko may present obstacles to his national reform agenda, which aims
to root out corruption and overhaul Ukraine’s Russian and oligarch-controlled
political economic order with the eventual objective of joining the European
Union. The results of the October 25 elections reflect Russia’s ability to strengthen
its political leverage over Ukraine without the need to escalate military
operations in the southeast. Russia achieved political gains even as
pro-Russian separatist forces continued to withdraw military equipment from the
front lines in the southeastern Donbas region and remained largely compliant
with a renewed ceasefire on September 1, 2015.
Russia seeks to
prevent Ukraine from becoming a fully-fledged member of the European Union by
leveraging its military intervention in Donbas to undermine the post-revolution
government in Kyiv. Moscow successfully applied military escalation in January
and February 2015 to set the terms of the “Minsk II” ceasefire agreement, which
locks Kyiv into making major political concessions, including decentralization
and the provision of “special status” to separatist-held Donbas. The Kremlin
now has the opportunity to cultivate ties with stronger pro-Russian factions
and oligarchs in the south and east, preventing these historically pro-Russian
regions from fully escaping its sphere of influence. Moscow may not be willing
or able to reestablish a client government in Kyiv in the short-term but it
will continue to exploit opportunities to prevent Ukraine from becoming a
prosperous European nation unified against Russia.
