By Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola
Key Takeaway: Russian airstrikes largely shifted to target ISIS
following new advances by the group in southern Homs Province. Russian
warplanes targeted ISIS’s positions near Qaraytan and Palmyra in the
eastern countryside of Homs as well as in ar-Raqqah City from November 2
- 3 approximately 24 hours after ISIS seized Maheen
southeast of Homs City. Russia is therefore able to alter its Air
Tasking Order (ATO) to designate new theater targets within 24 hours in
Syria. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed to conduct
airstrikes using precision weapons near Palmyra, southeastern Aleppo
Province, and Deir ez-Zour in direct coordination with
the Syrian opposition. These claims support Russia’s disingenuous
attempt to pressure the U.S. to work together to protect moderate
rebels. Russia reportedly deployed
five attack helicopters to the T4 (Tiyas) Airbase in eastern Homs
Province along the highway between Homs City and Palmyra, according to
an anonymous U.S. military official on November 3. The unnamed official
also stated that Russia deployed aircraft to the Shayrat Military
Airbase less than 30 kilometers northwest of Maheen. Syrian activists
previously reported on October 31 that the Syrian regime redeployed
all of its aircraft from Shayrat Military Airbase to the T4 and Hama
Military Airbases. Russian military presence in eastern Homs could
provide aerial reconnaissance for Russian strikes in the area as an
alternative or augmentation to Syrian rebel intelligence to guide
Russian airstrikes.
ISIS maintains the ability to pressure regime-held terrain despite the shift in Russian airstrikes. ISIS continued to clash with
regime forces in the town of Sadad northwest of Maheen on November
3. ISIS’s expansion threatens regime control of the strategic M5 Highway
connecting Damascus to Homs City. Credible local sources also reported
that Russian airstrikes continued to target rebel-held areas in the
southern countryside of Aleppo, southern Idlib Province, and the Eastern
Ghouta suburbs of Damascus from November 2 – 3 simultaneously.
The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike
locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian
state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials.
High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.
High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.
