By Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola
Key Takeaway: Russia shifted its air campaign in an effort to
mimic the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition's recent offensive to target
ISIS-run oil and natural gas infrastructure from November 18-19. Russian
military chief of staff Col. Gen. Andrey Kartapolov announced on
November 18 "Russian warplanes are now flying on a free hunt" against
ISIS-operated oil tanker trucks traveling back and forth from Syria and
Iraq, claiming that Russian strikes had destroyed over 500 ISIS-operated oil trucks
in the past "several days." This claim follows a November 16 U.S.-led
coalition strike near Deir ez-Zour, which destroyed at least 116 ISIS-operated oil tanker trucks.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that its long-range
warplanes based in southern Russia conducted strikes against ISIS in
both Deir ez-Zour and ar Raqqa Provinces. There was a notable influx of
Russian strikes in the countryside of Deir ez-Zour, an area crucial to
ISIS’s oil revenue. Local reporting has not yet substantiated claims of
Russian airstrikes in ar Raqqa. French warplanes, however, continued to
heavily bombard ISIS’s position in ar Raqqa from November 18-19. The
targeting of ISIS-held oil infrastructure will allow Russia to present
its interests as aligned with Western countries such as France despite
Russia’s continued targeting of Syrian armed opposition groups in
support of the Syrian regime’s ground campaign. Russia's recent
escalation against ISIS in Deir ez-Zour may also be intended to demonstrate
the irrelevance of the U.S.'s newest initiative inside Syria.
Russia continues to use its intensified air campaign in Syria to
position itself as an effective anti-ISIS actor amongst the
international community. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed
to carry out 253 sorties from the Bassel al-Assad International Airport
in Latakia as well as its base located along Russia’s southern border
with Georgia, doubling the average number of sorties flown each day. The
Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that long-range warplanes
fired 50 cruise missiles against ISIS in Aleppo, Idlib, and Deir ez-Zour
Provinces. However, cruise missile strikes have thus far only been
documented against rebel-held terrain in northern Idlib and western
Aleppo Provinces. Russian warplanes continued to carry out airstrikes
against rebel positions in Latakia, Hama, Idlib, and Dera’a Provinces in
support of regime ground operations. Russia continues to indiscriminately target civilians
and continues to provide air support to pro-regime forces, including
Iranian-backed proxy groups. The Russian air campaign in Syria primarily
supports the Assad regime’s efforts against the armed opposition
despite Russia’s recent increase in strikes against ISIS targets.
The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike
and cruise missile locations based on reports from local Syrian activist
networks, Syrian state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western
officials.
High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.
High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.