By Christopher Kozak
The Syrian regime and its allies reestablished
a ground line of communication (GLOC) to the hitherto-besieged
Kuweires Airbase east of Aleppo City in their first significant victory since
the start of the Russian air campaign in Syria on September 30. Activist
sources and Syrian
state television reported that an advance party of regime
forces established contact with several hundred Syrian Army soldiers besieged by
ISIS in Kuweires Airbase on November 10 after seizing the adjacent village of
Kuweires al-Sharqi. Clashes are reportedly ongoing as newly-arrived regime
reinforcements attempt to expand the base’s defensive perimeter. The advance
marks the culmination of one component of a multi-pronged
offensive which began on October 15. The
success of the operation relied heavily upon Russian air support as well as
reinforcement from hundreds of Iranian-backed proxy fighters. U.S. officials
previously reported in mid-October that up
to 2,000 Iranian, Hezbollah, and Iraqi Shi’a militia fighters had
massed southeast of Aleppo City in order to participate in ongoing offensives
targeting Kuweires Airbase as well as rebel-held terrain in the southern Aleppo
countryside.
The successful relief of the regime
forces trapped in Kuweires Airbase will provide a powerful morale boost to the
military forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The operation
constitutes a much-needed symbolic victory for the Syrian regime following major
territorial losses in the first half of 2015 as well as an initial lack
of significant progress following the Russian intervention.
The rescue of several hundred Syrian Army soldiers who have been besieged since
December 2012 will
tamper simmering discontent regarding his conduct of the Syrian Civil War. Alawite
populations along the Syrian Coast – a core base of popular support for the
Syrian regime – organized
several protests this summer criticizing the
government for failing to relieve Kuweires Airbase and other besieged
pro-regime enclaves in northern Syria.
The Syrian regime’s operational
intent following the offensive to secure Kuweires Airbase remains unclear. Kuweires
Airbase provides no tangible benefit to the Syrian Air Force, which maintains a
well-defended and functional airfield at the Aleppo International Airport
thirty kilometers to the west. The position of the base itself,
however, provides a potential staging ground for regime forces to conduct
follow-on operations that challenge ISIS’s presence in eastern Aleppo Province.
A continued presence in Kuweires Airbase could allow the Syrian regime to
contest ISIS-held terrain on the eastern outskirts of Aleppo City as well as
critical ISIS supply lines connecting ar-Raqqa City to the Turkish border. Claims that the elite
Syrian Army ‘Tiger Forces’ will soon redeploy from Kuweires to Hama
Province nevertheless suggest that the Syrian regime does not intend
to use the airfield as a launch pad for major offensive operations in the
near-future. The base also remains vulnerable to
an ISIS counterattack unless regime forces can seize additional terrain to
provide their salient with defense-in-depth. Alternatively, the Syrian regime
may intend to withdraw from Kuweires Airbase after securing safe passage for
the exfiltration of the base’s garrison. A withdrawal from the airfield would
free significant amounts of manpower, equipment, and aerial resupply assets for
use on other fronts.
The advances east of Aleppo City
nonetheless do little to change the immediate strategic outlook for President
Assad. Pro-regime forces have thus far achieved only
tactical gains throughout other parts of
northwestern Syria despite expanded support from Russia and Iran. Meanwhile,
rebel forces seized
the operationally-significant town of Morek along the strategic M5 Highway on
November 5 as part of a new offensive threatening regime-held Hama City. ISIS
also continues to pressure key supply lines for the Syrian regime in both Homs
and Aleppo Provinces. Activists reported that ISIS deployed a convoy
of at least forty vehicles from ar-Raqqa City to eastern
Aleppo Province on November 9 in a likely response to the imminent fall of
Kuweires Airbase. These challenges suggest that the Syrian regime and its
allies will struggle to translate symbolic gains into enduring operational success.