By Jodi Brignola and Jennifer Cafarella
Key Takeaway: The
Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed airstrikes in Aleppo,
Damascus, Idlib, Lattakia, Homs, Hama, and Raqqa from November 6 –
November 8. Credible local sources substantiated strike claims in
Aleppo, Damascus, Idlib, Homs, and Hama during this time period, but
failed to verify reports of Russian airstrikes in Raqqa province. Russian
airstrikes continued to support regime ground operations with limited
effect. Russian warplanes targeted rebel-held territory in Aleppo city
and in the southwestern Aleppo countryside amidst ongoing clashes
between pro-regime and rebel forces in the area. Pro-regime forces have
failed numerous attempts to advance on the ground. Russian airstrikes
also targeted rebel-held territory in Idlib and Hama countrysides,
likely in response to continued rebel advances in Northern Hama. Jabhat
al-Nusra (JN) and rebel forces seized the strategic town of Morek, north
of Hama City on November 4 and continued to make tactical gains in the
surrounding villages including Ashtan and Um Hartayn on November
6. Rebel advances in Hama indicate that the Russian air campaign is
insufficient to prevent rebel gains in the area amidst increased
shipments of U.S. TOW anti-tank missiles to moderate rebels. It is
possible that rebel forces are taking advantage of a decrease in Russian
rotary wing air support following the deployment of Russian helicopters
to the T4 (Tiyas) and Sharyat airbases in Homs on November 4.
Russian
airstrikes also targeted ISIS-held territory in Aleppo and Homs
Provinces from November 6 to November 8. Russian warplanes targeted
ISIS-held towns of al-Bab in Northeastern Aleppo and Palmyra and Maheen
in Eastern Homs. Russian strikes near
the Kuweires airbase east of Aleppo city, besieged by ISIS set
conditions for a renewed regime advance toward the base after regime
forces regained control of
the Khanaser-Ithraya highway from ISIS on November 4. Re-establishing
control of the highway allowed the regime to reinforce Kuweires and seize the
village of Sheikh Ahmad, three kilometers south of the airbase on
November 9. Coalition warplanes also targeted ISIS-held territory from
November 6 to November 8, conducting strikes in Hasakah, Deir ez-Zour,
and northern Aleppo. Both Russian and coalition airstrikes are therefore
occurring in northern Aleppo and possibly Deir ez Zour and Raqqa
against ISIS, exercising
de-confliction and raising questions of varying effects upon ground
conditions. Coalition airstrikes are precise, whereas Russian airstrikes continued to target civilian populations despite Russian claims to the contrary. Russian strikes on Douma in the Eastern Ghouta suburb of Damascus killed at least 23 civilians, including women and children on November
7. The strike follows recent regime aerial attacks in Douma, the
stronghold of prominent Islamist group Jaysh al-Islam. The regime and
Russia likely seek to disrupt an ongoing offensive by Jaysh al-Islam
against pro-regime forces south of Douma near regime-held neighborhoods
in Damascus.
The
following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike
locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian
state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials.
High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.
High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.
