By Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola
Key Takeaway: Russian airstrikes continued
to support regime ground operations in Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Idlib, and
Dera’a from November 9 - 10. Pro-regime forces relieved several
hundred regime soldiers besieged by ISIS in the Kuweires Airbase east
of Aleppo City on November 10 with air support provided by Russian
warplanes. Russian airstrikes began to target ISIS’s positions
surrounding Kuweires Airbase on October 12, preceding the start of the regime’s ground campaign against Kuweires on October 15.
The regime largely relied upon Russian air power as well as
reinforcement from hundreds of Iranian-backed proxy forces. The breaking
of the siege represents a significant psychological victory for the
regime and its allies. Russia will likely use this victory to validate
its intervention in Syria and portray itself and the regime as decisive
forces against ISIS in Syria. Russian airstrikes also continued to
target rebel-held terrain south of Aleppo City as pro-regime forces
continue to push southwest towards the town of Hader.
Russian airstrikes targeted Syrian opposition forces in Hama and
Idlib Provinces from November 9 - 10 as rebels continued to make gains against
regime forces following rebels’ seizure of the town of Morek in
northern Hama Province on November 4. Regime forces have in fact lost
terrain in Hama Province since the start of Russian airstrikes in Syria
on September 30. U.S. support to Syrian rebels has also largely assisted
rebel advances in Hama Province. The U.S. provided increased shipments
of TOW anti-tank missiles to “moderate” Syrian opposition groups
following Russia’s intervention. U.S.-backed rebels launched a total of 115 TOW missiles in the month of October alone.
Russian warplanes allegedly targeted the city of Inkhel 50 km north of Dera’a city amidst reports of
a buildup of regime military forces in northwestern Dera’a Province.
Pro-regime military buildup in southern Syria may indicate the regime’s
intent to launch a future offensive to retake the town of Tel Harra in
northwest Dera’a, which housed a joint Syrian-Russian signals
intelligence (SIGINT) base before rebels seized Tel
Harra in October 2014. These reports raise the question of future
Russian support towards an Iranian backed regime offensive near the
Golan Heights in Southern Syria, particularly in light of recent Russian
agreements with Syria’s southern neighbors Israel and Jordan.
The
following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike
locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian
state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials.
High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.
High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.
