By Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola
Key Takeaway: The
Russian air campaign continued to support regime ground operations
against the Syrian opposition in Aleppo, Latakia, Idlib, Hama, and
Dera’a Provinces from November 11 - 12. Russian warplanes targeted
rebel-held terrain in the southern Aleppo countryside, enabling
pro-regime forces to seize the towns of al-Hader and al-Eis located southwest of Aleppo City on November 12. Russian warplanes began to bombard both
of these towns on October 15 in conjunction with the start of the
regime’s ground offensive against rebels in the area. These advances
have brought the regime and its allies within sixteen miles of the two
besieged Shi’a-majority towns of Fua’h and Kafraya in northeastern Idlib
Province. Iraqi Shi’a militia Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba claimed that
the group is preparing for operations to break the rebel siege on
these two towns. Russian warplanes began targeting rebel-held towns
surrounding Fu’ah and Kafraya on November 4. These reported airstrikes
violate terms of a UN-implemented ceasefire established on September 24.
Local sources also reported the use of white phosphorus during Russian airstrikes near the Jebel Zawiya mountain range in southern Idlib Province on November 12.
The
Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the expansion of its air
campaign into Dera’a Province. ISW assessed Russian airstrikes against
one location in Dera’a Province with high-confidence and five others
with low-confidence from November 11 – 12, the largest concentration of
reported Russian strikes in Dera'a since the start of Russian airstrikes
on September 30. Local sources began reporting instances of Russian
airstrikes in Dera’a Province as early as October 28. The influx in
reported strikes follows reports of regime mobilization for an upcoming offensive near the Golan Heights. Israeli warplanes later conducted at least one airstrike near
the Damascus International Airport on November 11 targeting an alleged
weapon shipment intended for Lebanese Hezbollah. Continued Israeli
targeting of Iranian proxy forces in Syria could exert additional
pressure on Russia’s relations with Iran and the Syrian regime,
particularly if Russia received advance warning of the strike through
the Russian-Israeli air coordination mechanism established on September 21.
High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.
Approaching the besieged enclaves from the east provides a more accessible target than pushing from the south through core rebel-held terrain in Idlib Province.
**One Russian airstrike location from November 2 – 10 has been changed from low- to high-confidence as a result of additional reporting.
