By Jennifer
Cafarella with Christopher Kozak, Hugo Spaulding, and Genevieve Casagrande
Two Turkish F-16
planes shot down a Russian SU-24
jet on November 24 that Turkey claimed was in Turkish airspace and ignored repeated warnings. Two Russian pilots ejected from the plane, which reportedly
crashed in the Turkmen village of Yamadi in Syria near the Turkish border. A minor Syrian rebel
group affiliated with the Free Syrian Army named Brigade 10 released footage alleging to show a deceased Russian
pilot. One additional pilot survived and is in
hands of Turkmen forces in Syria according to unconfirmed reports. Turkish
President Recep Erdogan
called an emergency
security meeting. NATO is also expected to hold an immediate
meeting.
Russia condemned the downing of the jet and warned of future
consequences. The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the downing of the jet,
but denied it had violated Turkish airspace. Russian President Vladmir Putin called
the downing of the plane a "stab in the back"
and promised “serious
consequences...for Russian-Turkish relations.” Putin called the Turkish
military the "accomplices of terrorists." He said at the end of his
statement: “Do they want to make NATO serve ISIS? I understand that every state
has its own regional interests and we’ve always respected
that, but we will never allow the kind of crime that happened to today to take
place.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov canceled his scheduled to visit
Turkey for bilateral talks on November 25.
The downing of the
Russian jet followed Turkish warnings about its willingness to intervene to
halt a renewed pro-regime offensive against a majority Turkmen area in
Northeastern Latakia Province. Pro-regime forces supported by Hezbollah,
Iranian-backed militias, and Russian airstrikes, and Russian artillery attacked
rebel positions in the Mount Turkman region of Northeastern Latakia Province
near the Turkish border on November 19. Fifteen hundred Turkmen refugees fled to the Turkish border
by November 23, according to the governor of Turkey’s Hatay province, Ercan
Topaca, who also claimed that the regime attack targeted 15 villages populated by a total of
35,000 civilians. Local activists immediately decried the attack, calling it
the “Mount
Turkman Massacre,” and the main Syrian political opposition group, the Syrian
National Coalition, called for immediate rebel
reinforcements to the area.
Pro-regime
forces have seized at least five villages and a number of hilltops in the Mount
Turkman area amidst these ongoing clashes. Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat
al-Nusra is supporting Syrian rebel groups, including Syrian Turkmen, to defend
against the regime’s attack. The complex mix of
anti-regime groups in the Mount Turkman area helps legitimize Russia’s claim to
be assisting pro-regime forces eliminate “terrorists” in Syria despite the fact
that Russia and pro-regime forces are intentionally targeting civilian areas.
The commander of a new Turkmen rebel group named the Sultan Abd al-Hamid
Brigade, established in January 2015, denied the scale of the regime’s
advance, claiming that rebel forces continue to control major
strategic positions throughout the area.
Turkey formally protested these developments and stated that it would not
tolerate a worsening situation in the Mount Turkman area. Turkey summoned the Russian Ambassador on November
20 to demand an end to the military operation, warning that Russian airstrikes
against civilian Syrian Turkmen villages “could lead to serious consequences.”
Turkish political and security officials met two days later in a security summit to discuss the regime’s
offensive. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu announced Turkey will
"not hesitate" to take necessary action to protect Turkmen
populations on Syrian soil, and added that Turkish security forces “have been
instructed to retaliate against any development that would threaten Turkey’s
border security.” Davutoglu added that “If there is an attack that would lead
to an intense influx of refugees to Turkey, required measures would be taken
both inside Syria and Turkey.” Turkish Foreign Minister Sinirlioglu
contacted U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and sent
a letter to Britain, which holds the UNSC presidency, calling for a U.N. Security Council meeting to
address the issue.
Turkey has longstanding
relations with Syrian Turkmen communities and provides military support to at
least one Syrian Turkmen rebel brigade. Turkish Prime Minister Davutoglu
nonetheless downplayed Turkey’s special treatment of Turkmen in Syria,
stating, “We have reacted to all the attacks aimed at civilians close to our
border without making any discrimination in regards to whether they have been
Turkmen, Arab or Kurdish, not only because they have been Turkmen.”
Turkey’s reaction could
constrain Russia near the Syrian-Turkish border, but Russia is unlikely to
downgrade its operations in Syria. Russia continues to prioritize projecting
power onto NATO’s southern flank, and will likely escalate its air campaign in
Syria on other fronts in a show of force. The Russian Ministry of Defense
summoned the Turkish defense attaché in Moscow to discuss the incident, and
stated that it is “designing a complex of measures directed to respond such
incidents.” The participation of al-Qaeda in the clashes near the
Syrian-Turkish border will continue to provide Russia with the ability to
justify its airstrikes in the guise of a counter-terror mission. NATO is
unlikely to pursue further escalation, but could take a more aggressive stance
against Russia’s intervention in Syria.|
The incident could
affect prospects for a successful negotiated settlement in Syria, at minimum.
Turkey is a major supporter of Syrian armed opposition groups to include both
Turkmen and Arab groups. Turkey continues to call for the removal of Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad from power, which Russia is maneuvering to prevent
through the framework of the Vienna negotiations. Continued Russian support to
pro-regime offensives targeting Syrian territory of concern to Turkey may disincentivize Turkey from agreeing to halt the violence in Syria.
