Davit Gasparyan, Riley Bailey, Angelica Evans, Grace Mappes, Nate Trotter, and Frederick W. Kagan
Key Takeaways:
- Russian sources reported on October 16 that unspecified actors killed the deputy commander of Russia's Special Operations Forces (SSO) Training Center, Nikita Klenkov, near Moscow City.
- The European Union (EU) issued a statement on October 16 condemning Russian executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) and noted that at least 177 Ukrainian POWs have died in Russian captivity since February 2022.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
- Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
- Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation
- Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of three subordinate main efforts)
- Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City
- Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
- Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
- Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
- Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
- Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
- Russian Technological Adaptations
- Activities in Russian-occupied areas
- Ukrainian Defense Industrial Base Efforts
- Russian Information Operations and Narratives
- Significant Activity in Belarus
Russian forces advanced on the Western side of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued fighting along the salient on October 17. Geolocated footage published on October 17 indicates that Russian forces advanced south of Zelenyy Shlyakh (southeast of Korenevo).[7] Russian forces reportedly continued fighting southeast of Korenevo near Lyubimovka, Malaya Loknya, and Novoivanovka; and south of Sudzha near Plekhovo.[8] Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacked southeast of Korenevo in the direction of Tolsty Lug, Lyubimovka, Zelenyy Shlyakh, and Nizhnyi Klin; and southeast of Sudzha near Russkaya Konopelka.[9] A Russian milblogger claimed that rainy weather is impacting Russian and Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast.[10] Elements of the Russian 106th Airborne (VDV) Division and the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet, Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly operating near Lyubimovka.[11] Elements of the Russian 83rd Airborne Assault Brigade (VDV) are reportedly operating near Tolsty Lug.[12]
Russian forces continued assaults northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk and Starytsya on October 16 and 17, but there were no confirmed changes near the frontline.[15] The spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kharkiv direction reported on October 17 that the October 15 Ukrainian operation that cleared a forest area 400 hectares in size north of Lypsti (north of Kharkiv City) was the result of a long-term Ukrainian effort to push Russian forces back towards the international border between Kharkiv and Belgorod oblasts.[16]
Russian forces continued assaults along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on October 17, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration Head Oleh Synehubov reported that Russian forces recently advanced to an unspecified position within four kilometers of Kupyansk and noted that Ukrainian authorities are evacuating civilians from Kupyansk and the surrounding areas.[18] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are operating three kilometers away from the northern administrative boundaries of Kupyansk, however.[19] Russian forces continued assaults northeast of Kupyansk near Holubivka, Petropavlivka, and in the direction of Kucherivka; east of Kupyansk near Stepova Novoselivka and Pishchane; southeast of Kupyansk near Hlushkivka, Kolisnykivka, and Kruhlyakivka; west of Svatove near Lozova, Vyshneve, and Nadiya; southwest of Svatove near Hrekivka, Druzhelyubivka, and in the direction of Katerynivka and Novomykhailivka; northwest of Kreminna near Novosadove, Makiivka, and Nevske; west of Kreminna near Terny and Torske; and southwest of Kreminna near Dibrova and Serebryanka on October 16 and 17.[20] Russian milbloggers amplified footage purportedly showing Russian forces striking a bridge across the Oskil River along the P-79 highway between Borova and Horokhovatka (both west of Svatove).[21]
Russian forces recently advanced within and southeast of Chasiv Yar amid continued offensive operations in the area on October 17. Geolocated footage published on October 17 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced further in eastern Chasiv Yar during a reinforced platoon-sized mechanized assault and recently advanced into the "Block-9" mine southeast of Chasiv Yar.[23] Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar itself, north of Chasiv Yar near Hryhorivka and Mynkivka, east of Chasiv Yar near Ivanivske, and south of Chasiv Yar near Stupochky on October 16 and 17.[24]
Ukrainian forces recently regained territory within Toretsk amid continued Russian offensive operations in the area on October 17. Geolocated footage published on October 15 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently regained positions in central Toretsk.[25] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced up to 2.17 kilometers in depth north of Niu York (south of Toretsk), although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim.[26] Russian forces continued offensive operations near Toretsk, south of Toretsk near Nelipivka, west of Toretsk near Shcherbynivka, and southwest of Toretsk near Sukha Balka on October 16 and 17.[27] Elements of the Russian 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st Guards Combined Arms Army [CAA], formerly the 1st Donetsk People's Republic Army Corps [DNR AC]) are reportedly operating in the Toretsk direction.[28]
Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Pokrovsk and Ukrainian forces recently advanced east of Pokrovsk. Geolocated footage published on October 17 indicates that Russian forces operating southeast of Pokrovsk recently made gains in eastern Lysivka (west of Novohrodivka), seized a water treatment facility west of Novohrodivka, and advanced along a windbreak southwest of Selydove during what appears to have been a company-sized Russian mechanized assault.[29] Geolocated footage published on October 17 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently regained marginal ground near Mykolaivka (east of Pokrovsk and west of Hrodivka).[30] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces operating southeast of Pokrovsk also advanced along a front 4.35 kilometers wide on Selydove's northwestern outskirts, south of Tsukuryne, and east of Novoselydivka.[31] ISW has not observed confirmation of these Russian claims, however. Russian forces continued offensive operations east of Pokrovsk near Promin and southeast of Pokrovsk near Sukhi Yar, Lysivka, Selydove, Izmailivka, Novodmytrivka, Novoselydivka, Hirnyk, and Zoryane.[32] A Russian milblogger claimed that small Russian infantry assault groups in the Pokrovsk direction are working in pairs in which one group attempts to establish a tactical foothold at a forward position while the other group follows behind for support.[33] Elements of the Russian "Black Knives Division" are reportedly attacking near Selydove.[34] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on October 17 that the Russian Central Grouping of Forces operating in the Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove directions received 1,622 troops in the last two weeks of September (September 16 to 30) to reinforce advanced units and to replace losses.[35]
Russian forces continued offensive operations southwest of Donetsk City on October 17 but did not make any confirmed advances in the area. Russian milbloggers claimed that elements of the 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade (68th Army Corps [AC], Eastern Military District [EMD]) advanced up to a kilometer and established a foothold on the southern outskirts of Katerynivka, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim.[39] Russian forces continued offensive operations near Antonivka, Kostyantynivka, Vodyane, Bohoyavlenka, Novoukrainka, and Zolota Nyva on October 16 and 17.[40] Elements of the Russian 1472nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (68th AC) are also reportedly operating near Katerynivka.[41]
Russian forces continued ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 17, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian forces conducted assaults northwest of Robotyne, near Mala Tokmachka (northeast of Robotyne), north of Verbove (east of Robotyne), in the direction of Novodanylivka (north of Robotyne), and in Kamyanske (south of Stepnohirsk) on October 16 and 17.[42] Elements of the Russian 35th Combined Arms Army (CAA) (Eastern Military District [EMD]) reportedly continue to operate in the Polohy (eastern Zaporizhia Oblast) direction.[43]
Russian forces continued attacks in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast on October 16 and 17 but did not make any confirmed advances.[44] Air defense elements of the Russian 18th CAA (Southern Military District [SMD]) reportedly continue operating in the Kherson direction.[45]
Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine overnight on October 16 to 17. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched a Kh-59 cruise missile from airspace over Kursk Oblast and launched 56 unspecified strike drones, likely Shahed drones, from Kursk Oblast, Oryol Oblast, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai.[47] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian air defenses downed 22 Russian drones over Sumy, Kyiv, Poltava, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, Odesa, and Ternopil oblasts as of 0500 on October 17.[48] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference caused 27 Russian drones to become ”lost” in Ukrainian air space and miss their targets, that two drones left Ukrainian airspace and flew into Belarusian airspace, and that five Russian drones struck infrastructure facilities along the frontline in Ukraine. Kyiv City Military Administration Head Serhii Popko and Kyiv City Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko reported that Russian drones struck an apartment building and a kindergarten in Desnyan raion, Kyiv City.[49] Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces also struck energy infrastructure in Mykolaiv Oblast overnight.[50]
Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)
Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.
[1] https://t.me/istories_media/7854 ; https://t.me/rbc_news/105187 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/279685 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/279700 ; https://t.me/gsuskmosobl/2626 ; https://meduza dot io/news/2024/10/16/v-podmoskovie-ubili-zamkomandira-voyskovoy-chasti-vernuvshegosya-s-voyny-nedelyu-nazad-tass-pishet-chto-ubiystvo-zakaznoe ; https://t.me/vchkogpu/51782 ; https://t.me/vchkogpu/51783
[2] https://t.me/tass_agency/279685 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/279700 ; https://t.me/gsuskmosobl/2626 ; https://meduza dot io/news/2024/10/16/v-podmoskovie-ubili-zamkomandira-voyskovoy-chasti-vernuvshegosya-s-voyny-nedelyu-nazad-tass-pishet-chto-ubiystvo-zakaznoe
[3] https://www.eeas.europa dot eu/eeas/ukrainerussia-statement-high-representative-killing-ukrainian-prisoners-war_en ; https://suspilne dot media/859611-es-zasudiv-rozstrili-rosieu-ukrainskih-vijskovopolonenih/
[4] https://www.ohchr.org/en/instruments-mechanisms/instruments/geneva-convention-relative-treatment-prisoners-war
[5] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-13-2024
[6] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/10/04/93-ukrayinskyh-vijskovopolonenyh-stratyly-rosiyany-na-poli-boyu-80-czogo-roku/; https://suspilne dot media/851175-rosiani-stratili-na-poli-bou-93-ukrainskih-vijskovih-aki-zdalisa-u-polon-ofis-genprokurora/; https://www.voanews.com/a/kyiv-says-russia-has-executed-93-ukrainian-pows-since-start-of-war/7811441.html
[7] https://x.com/giK1893/status/1846842712177197222; https://t.me/brygada47/1029; https://t.me/bigcatsinfo/3633; https://t.me/khornegroup/2852; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/7140
[8] https://t.me/mod_russia/44606
[9] https://t.me/mod_russia/44606
[10] https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/11607
[11] https://t.me/rusich_army/17759; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/78891
[12] https://t.me/rusich_army/17759
[13] https://t.me/rybar/64493
[14] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2024/10/17/vtrychi-bilshe-rosiyany-byut-kabamy-po-kurshhyni-v-razy-intensyvnishe/ ; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5TqaWCCdUg
[15] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0VDxXQ3QHasCuZJf3GcuVeBMdsLFiiyQtwJXiUdGYsjM3pbk7Ja8P8RcUDrxMwCKBl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02QStcKR6o3ENGLEDtW4YEEyVRhjxY3dDGoPyeQwmnYnipKEQcur9mSXF5whGYpJF5l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0KcSWBRUpFkxvTPA7asYUF3zaQ3yWFc6MZ59JaJCvyH6pr1Y5NxiL9vPd3coaTA81l ; https://t.me/otukharkiv/2142
[16] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/10/17/kulminacziya-tryvaloyi-operacziyi-na-pivnochi-harkivshhyny-voroga-posunuly-do-kordonu/ ; https://youtu.be/aDXWlQ2K0dM
[17] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/78864
[18] https://suspilne dot media/859613-zasidanna-ramstajn-vidbudetsa-onlajn-nova-dopomoga-vid-ssa-ta-boi-v-kurskij-oblasti-967-den-vijni-onlajn/?anchor=live_1729168866&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps
[19] https://t.me/notes_veterans/20027
[20] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0VDxXQ3QHasCuZJf3GcuVeBMdsLFiiyQtwJXiUdGYsjM3pbk7Ja8P8RcUDrxMwCKBl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02QStcKR6o3ENGLEDtW4YEEyVRhjxY3dDGoPyeQwmnYnipKEQcur9mSXF5whGYpJF5l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0KcSWBRUpFkxvTPA7asYUF3zaQ3yWFc6MZ59JaJCvyH6pr1Y5NxiL9vPd3coaTA81l ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/78876 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/279788
[21] https://t.me/sashakots/49581 ; https://t.me/epoddubny/21370 ; https://t.me/notes_veterans/20027
[22] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0VDxXQ3QHasCuZJf3GcuVeBMdsLFiiyQtwJXiUdGYsjM3pbk7Ja8P8RcUDrxMwCKBl
[23] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/7136; https://t.me/rt_russian/218238 ; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/7143; https://t.me/EnotHersonVDV/4421
[24] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0VDxXQ3QHasCuZJf3GcuVeBMdsLFiiyQtwJXiUdGYsjM3pbk7Ja8P8RcUDrxMwCKBl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02QStcKR6o3ENGLEDtW4YEEyVRhjxY3dDGoPyeQwmnYnipKEQcur9mSXF5whGYpJF5l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0KcSWBRUpFkxvTPA7asYUF3zaQ3yWFc6MZ59JaJCvyH6pr1Y5NxiL9vPd3coaTA81l
[25] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/7129; https://t.me/orbSparta_Officially/217
[26] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/17433 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/78876
[27] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0VDxXQ3QHasCuZJf3GcuVeBMdsLFiiyQtwJXiUdGYsjM3pbk7Ja8P8RcUDrxMwCKBl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02QStcKR6o3ENGLEDtW4YEEyVRhjxY3dDGoPyeQwmnYnipKEQcur9mSXF5whGYpJF5l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0KcSWBRUpFkxvTPA7asYUF3zaQ3yWFc6MZ59JaJCvyH6pr1Y5NxiL9vPd3coaTA81l
[28] https://t.me/milinfolive/132990
[29] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/7141; https://t.me/jagers68/300 ; https://t.me/shershni68/308 ; https://x.com/Bielitzling/status/1846949313944969595 ; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/7134 ; https://t.me/UralArmor90/526
[30] https://x.com/EerikMatero/status/1846961655818641456; https://t.me/urga_74/2154
[31] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/78876 ; https://t.me/z_arhiv/28617 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/59596 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/17459
[32] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0VDxXQ3QHasCuZJf3GcuVeBMdsLFiiyQtwJXiUdGYsjM3pbk7Ja8P8RcUDrxMwCKBl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02QStcKR6o3ENGLEDtW4YEEyVRhjxY3dDGoPyeQwmnYnipKEQcur9mSXF5whGYpJF5l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0KcSWBRUpFkxvTPA7asYUF3zaQ3yWFc6MZ59JaJCvyH6pr1Y5NxiL9vPd3coaTA81l
[33] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/59595
[34] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/7134; https://t.me/UralArmor90/526
[35] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/2273 ; https://www.facebook.com/pashtetof/posts/pfbid02C4Hgu6arCsm5jEWHAL2PZXXW6JvBrWXgQtDi2fuTKsLSJbt3NYRFw8hZCsAK4hP6l
[36] https://t.me/razvedkavperedZ/794; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/7138
[37] https://t.me/z_arhiv/28629; https://t.me/mod_russia/44602
[38] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0VDxXQ3QHasCuZJf3GcuVeBMdsLFiiyQtwJXiUdGYsjM3pbk7Ja8P8RcUDrxMwCKBl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02QStcKR6o3ENGLEDtW4YEEyVRhjxY3dDGoPyeQwmnYnipKEQcur9mSXF5whGYpJF5l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0KcSWBRUpFkxvTPA7asYUF3zaQ3yWFc6MZ59JaJCvyH6pr1Y5NxiL9vPd3coaTA81l
[39] https://t.me/voin_dv/11377 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/78876 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/17434
[40] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0KcSWBRUpFkxvTPA7asYUF3zaQ3yWFc6MZ59JaJCvyH6pr1Y5NxiL9vPd3coaTA81l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02QStcKR6o3ENGLEDtW4YEEyVRhjxY3dDGoPyeQwmnYnipKEQcur9mSXF5whGYpJF5l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0VDxXQ3QHasCuZJf3GcuVeBMdsLFiiyQtwJXiUdGYsjM3pbk7Ja8P8RcUDrxMwCKBl ; https://t.me/wargonzo/22644 ; https://t.me/voin_dv/11377 ;
[41] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/141022
[42]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0VDxXQ3QHasCuZJf3GcuVeBMdsLFiiyQtwJXiUdGYsjM3pbk7Ja8P8RcUDrxMwCKBl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02QStcKR6o3ENGLEDtW4YEEyVRhjxY3dDGoPyeQwmnYnipKEQcur9mSXF5whGYpJF5l ;https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0KcSWBRUpFkxvTPA7asYUF3zaQ3yWFc6MZ59JaJCvyH6pr1Y5NxiL9vPd3coaTA81lf ; https://t.me/wargonzo/22644 ;https://t.me/dva_majors/55239
[43] https://t.me/voin_dv/11373
[44]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0VDxXQ3QHasCuZJf3GcuVeBMdsLFiiyQtwJXiUdGYsjM3pbk7Ja8P8RcUDrxMwCKBl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02QStcKR6o3ENGLEDtW4YEEyVRhjxY3dDGoPyeQwmnYnipKEQcur9mSXF5whGYpJF5l ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0KcSWBRUpFkxvTPA7asYUF3zaQ3yWFc6MZ59JaJCvyH6pr1Y5NxiL9vPd3coaTA81l
[45] https://t.me/dva_majors/55237
[46] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/2274
[47] https://t.me/kpszsu/21436
[48] https://t.me/kpszsu/21436
[49] https://t.me/VA_Kyiv/8606 ; https://suspilne dot media/859613-zasidanna-ramstajn-vidbudetsa-onlajn-nova-dopomoga-vid-ssa-ta-boi-v-kurskij-oblasti-967-den-vijni-onlajn/?anchor=live_1729144330&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps ; https://t.me/astrapress/66474 ; https://t.me/vitaliy_klitschko/3621
[50] https://t.me/mykolaivskaODA/11789; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2024/10/17/mykolayivshhyna-pid-udarom-vorog-poshkodyv-energosystemu/; https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/11647
[51] https://t.me/tass_agency/279919
[52] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-16-2024; https://iz dot ru/1759872/2024-09-16/putin-postanovil-uvelichit-shtatnuiu-chislennost-vooruzhennykh-sil
[53] https://www.vedomosti dot ru/politics/news/2024/07/04/1048074-medvedev-kontrakti-s-minoboroni; https://www.vedomosti dot ru/society/news/2023/10/25/1002510-medvedev-zaimetsya-doukomplektovaniem-kontraktnikami
[54] https://t.me/mod_russia/44609
[55] https://t.me/dva_majors/55272 ; https://t.me/rogozin_do/6426 ; https://t.me/rbc_news/105245
[56] . https://t.me/rbc_news/105245 ; https://www.rbc dot ru/business/17/10/2024/6710cee49a7947277c10edef?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=messenger
[57] https://t.me/rogozin_do/6060
[58] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/2273
[59] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/2273 ; https://www.facebook.com/pashtetof/posts/pfbid02C4Hgu6arCsm5jEWHAL2PZXXW6JvBrWXgQtDi2fuTKsLSJbt3NYRFw8hZCsAK4hP6l