Carolyn
Moorman, Andie Parry, Alexandra Braverman, Ria Reddy, Siddhant Kishore,
Anthony Carrillo, Buckley DeJardin, and Nicholas Carl
Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET
The
Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored
activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US
forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the
stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical
Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly
based on regional events. Click here
to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This
map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
CTP-ISW
defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that
Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came
to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state,
semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their
collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the
alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels
of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some
degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional
proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others
are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of
the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives,
which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from
the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these
objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have
become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.
We
do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are
well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military
operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn
violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and
crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these
reports.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) deployed a third division—the 91st Division—to southern Lebanon on October 7 for “focused and delimited” ground operations against Lebanese Hezbollah.[1] The 91st Division joins the 36th and 98th divisions in southern Lebanon shortly after Israel announced that it would expand ground operations against Hezbollah.[2] The IDF 3rd, 8th, and 288th reserve brigades are operating under the 91st Division.[3]
The division is ordinarily responsible for the entire Israel-Lebanon
border and has conducted hundreds of attacks from Israel targeting
Hezbollah.[4] Hezbollah reported that it fired upon Israeli forces around the border near Yiftah.[5] Commercially available satellite imagery captured on October 7 similarly indicates troop movements in the area.
The IDF created a fourth closed military zone in Western Galilee on October 7.[6]
The new zone encompasses Rosh Hanikra, Hanita, Admit, Arab al Aramshe,
and Shlomi, which is the western-most section of the Israel-Lebanon
border.[7]
Most of the border is now a closed military zone. The IDF created
closed military zones to the east over the Metula area on September 30,
over the Dovev, Tzvion, and Malkia areas on October 1, and over Manara
and Yiftah on October 6.[8]
The
IDF Arabic-language spokesperson called on civilians to evacuate
immediately from 25 towns and villages in southern Lebanon on October 7.[9] The spokesperson told residents that they should head north of the Awali River.[10] The spokesperson also ordered Lebanese civilians to keep off the sea and shoreline south of the Awali River.[11] He said that the IDF Navy would soon operate off the coast against Hezbollah.[12] Local Lebanese sources reported that Israeli naval ships fired artillery targeting Ras Naqoura in southwest Lebanon.[13] The IDF Navy has provided fire support to ground forces operating in the Gaza Strip over the past year.[14]
US Central Command Commander General Michael Erik Kurilla met with senior Israeli defense officials on October 5 and 6.[15]
Kurilla spoke with Israeli Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi
Halevi, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and other commanders
about the recent Iranian missile attack on Israel and other threats
facing Israel.[16] The IDF reported that Kurilla and Halevi discussed Israeli ground operations into southern Lebanon as well.[17]
Senior
Iranian officials have continued insisting that Islamic Revolutionary
Guards (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani is
alive but have not yet provided evidence.[18] Western
and Middle Eastern outlets have suggested that Israel killed or injured
Ghaani in an airstrike on Beirut on October 4. IRGC Quds Force
Coordination Deputy Brigadier General Eraj Masjedi said on October 4
that Ghaani is “in good health.”[19] The host of a Palestinian conference in Tehran similarly read a message that was purportedly written by Ghaani on October 7.[20]
Anonymous Israeli military sources told Israeli media that Ghaani was
not the target of the IDF airstrike on Beirut and that the IDF was
unaware of whether Ghaani was at the location of the airstrike.[21]
Hamas
issued a statement commemorating the anniversary of its October 7,
2023, attack into Israel and celebrating the other Iranian-backed actors
that have begun attacking Israel regularly over the past year.[22]
This framing is consistent with Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s reported
desire to ignite a regional war against Israel in order to alleviate
Israeli military pressure on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Hamas, in
its statement, praised Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraqi militias, and West
Bank fighters for their regular attacks on Israel.[23] Hamas also boasted that a recent terror attack on the Israel-Jordan border has inspired ”an authentic Jordanian Arab front.”
Hamas separately claimed that it conducted its October 7 attack into Israel in order to preempt an Israeli attack.[24]
This appears to be the first time that Hamas has made this claim,
raising the question of why it waited until now to make this assertion
if it were true. Hamas also threatened to execute more Israeli hostages
in its statement commemorating its indiscriminate killing, torture, and
abduction of Israeli civilians.
The Iranian
National Security and Foreign Policy Committee is preparing legislation
that would formalize parts of the Axis of Resistance as an alliance.[25]
The proposed legislation would establish a "security defense agreement"
or ”resistance pact” among Iran and its regional allies, likely Iraq,
Syria, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. The agreement would require alliance
members to provide “comprehensive economic, military, and political
support to each other” in the event of a US or Israeli attack. The
Iranian Supreme National Security Council would be responsible for
admitting members into the alliance. The legislation also proposes
establishing a headquarters to “coordinate operations and military
decisions” across the alliance. The legislation finally mentions holding
combined military exercises and developing military infrastructure
together. The committee will send the legislation to the Iranian
Parliament for voting ”soon.” This notional alliance would formalize
much of what Iran already tries to do with the Axis of Resistance. Iran
views itself as a member and the leader of this informal alliance and
coordinates military activities across the alliance through a network of
headquarters dispersed across the Middle East.
Key Takeaways:

Gaza Strip
Axis of Resistance objectives:
The
IDF continued clearing operations in Jabalia refugee camp, Gaza City,
on October 7 after launching a new operation there to disrupt Hamas
reconstitution efforts.[26] The
IDF Air Force struck dozens of targets, including fighters,
infrastructure, and underground tunnels before Israeli forces entered
Jabalia.[27]
The 162nd Division engaged Palestinian fighters and discovered large
amounts of weapons, including grenades, ammunition, and improvised
explosive devices (IED).[28] IDF 401st Brigade exchanged fire with two Palestinian fighters in a building before killing them via tank fire.[29] Palestinian militias targeted IDF personnel and armor with IEDs, rocket-propelled grenades, mortars, and small arms.[30]
Hamas fighters detonated an IED targeting Israeli armor and dismounted
infantry east of Jabalia camp and then claimed to detonate
anti-personnel mines targeting the evacuation force that arrived
following the first attack.[31]
The IDF issued evacuation orders for Beit Hanoun, Jabalia, and Beit Lahiya in the northern Gaza Strip on October 7.[32] The IDF told residents to travel to the al Mawasi humanitarian zone in the southern Gaza Strip via two north-south roads.[33] The IDF had expanded the al Mawasi humanitarian zone on October 6 in advance of issuing these new evacuation orders.[34] The IDF launched an operation near Beit Lahiya on September 25 to destroy Hamas infrastructure.[35] The IDF last operated in Beit Hanoun in July 2024.[36]

The IDF Air Force struck a Hamas command-and-control site in the central Gaza Strip on October 6.[37] The
IDF stated that Hamas fighters used the Shuhada al Aqsa hospital in
Deir al Balah to plan and conduct attacks targeting Israeli forces and
Israeli territory.[38] The IDF added that it took steps to minimize civilian casualties.[39] The Hamas-run Health Ministry reported that the strikes killed 26 civilians.[40]
Several
Palestinian militias launched mortars and rockets targeting Israeli
forces and Israeli command-and-control centers around the Netzarim
Corridor on October 7.[41] Five militias noted that they coordinated their attacks targeting the corridor.[42] The IDF 252nd Division operates along the corridor.[43]
The IDF Air Force struck several Hamas targets in the central Gaza
Strip that posed a threat to IDF units operating around the Netzarim
Corridor.[44]
Palestinian militias mortared Israeli forces north of al Bureij camp in the central Gaza Strip three times on October 7. [45]
The National Resistance Brigades mortared Israeli forces at the Rafah border crossing on October 7.[46] The IDF Gaza Division is operating along the Philadelphi Corridor.[47]

The IDF stated that it thwarted an attempt by Hamas to fire into Israel territory on October 7.[48]
An Israeli media correspondent reported that the IDF Air Force struck
several Hamas rocket launchers and tunnels throughout the Gaza Strip
moments before Hamas had planned to fire rockets into Israel.[49]
Hamas successfully launched four rockets targeting Sufa with the IDF
intercepting three and one landing in an unpopulated area.[50]
Palestinian militias fired at least 14 rockets into southern Israel on October 7.[51] The
National Resistance Brigades fired rockets at Ashkelon, and the IDF Air
Force struck the launch sites in the northern Gaza Strip.[52]
Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) launched rockets targeting Sderot and
Nir Am in southern Israel with the IDF detecting five rockets that
crossed from the northern Gaza Strip.[53] Hamas launched five rockets from the Khan Younis area that impacted a residential area near Tel Aviv.[54]
The IDF struck the launch site in Khan Younis, causing secondary
explosions that indicated additional weapons were stored at the site.[55]
The IDF also issued evacuation orders for the neighborhoods of Bani
Suheila, al Mahatta, Sheikh Nasser, and Maan in Khan Younis after Hamas
launched the rockets.[56]
Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.
The
US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC)
imposed new sanctions against four individuals and 11 entities linked to
Hamas’ global fundraising efforts on October 7.[57] OFAC sanctioned the following:
West Bank
Axis of Resistance objectives:
Palestine
Mujahidin Brigades—the militant wing of the Palestinian Mujahidin
Movement—claimed responsibility for the shooting attack in Beersheba on
October 6.[58] The
Palestine Mujahidin Brigades claimed that the shooting attack was a
”natural and continuous response” to Israeli military operations in the
Gaza Strip, West Bank, and Lebanon.[59] The group stated that the Israeli Arab gunman belonged to its ”Internal Martyrs Unit.”[60] The gunman killed an Israeli Border Police officer and wounded ten other civilians before Israeli security forces killed him.[61]
Israeli
forces conducted raids in several locations across the West Bank on
October 6 and 7, as a part of a counterterrorism operation.[62]
Israeli forces operated in Jenin, Nour Shams refugee camp, Qalandiya,
and Tulkarm and detained 45 wanted individuals. Palestinians threw
bricks and rocks at Israeli forces in Qalandiya, and Israeli forces
fired live rounds to disperse the crowd.[63] The IDF seized five firearms and “tens of thousands” of Israeli shekels in “terrorist funds.”[64]
Israeli
forces have engaged Palestinian fighters in at least six locations in
the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on October 6.[65] Palestinian
militias, including PIJ and al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, fired small arms
and detonated IEDs targeting Israeli forces in Nour Shams refugee camp.[66] Israeli forces similarly engaged PIJ and the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades in Jenin City.[67] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ separately attacked the IDF in Balata refugee camp, Nablus, by firing small arms and detonating IEDs.[68] These militia activities mark an uptick in Palestinian militant activity in the West Bank in recent days.[69] CTP-ISW did not observe any engagements between Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters in the West Bank from October 1 to 5.[70]

This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.
Northern Israel and Lebanon
Axis of Resistance objectives:
The IDF 36th Division continued clearing Hezbollah infrastructure around Maroun al Ras on October 7. The Golani Brigade has engaged dozens of Hezbollah fighters and destroyed several tunnels located in civilian buildings.[71] Hezbollah targeted Israeli forces in Maroun al Ras with rocket fire on October 7.[72]

Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least 12 attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on October 6.[73] Hezbollah launched several medium-range rockets at Haifa.[74] Hezbollah also fired about 20 rockets that struck several cars in a parking lot in Kfar Vradim.[75] Hezbollah lastly attacked Israeli forces near Yiftah.[76]

The IDF continued its air campaign targeting Hezbollah capabilities, infrastructure, and leadership. The IDF Air Force conducted a large-scale strike campaign targeting Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon on October 7.[77]
The IDF stated that it designed the hour-long strike campaign to
increase “the damage to Hezbollah's command, control, and firing
capabilities and to assist the maneuvering ground forces to achieve
their goals."[78] The IDF also struck Hezbollah headquarters and munitions warehouses in Bekka Valley and southern Beirut.[79]

This
map illustrates individual Israeli air and artillery strikes based on
local Lebanese reporting. This map depicts strikes reported from 2:00pm
ET on October 6 to 2:00pm ET on October 7. This map is not exhaustive.
CTP-ISW cannot independently verify the locations of Israeli strikes.
Iran and the Axis of Resistance
The
Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi
militias—claimed on October 7 that it conducted one drone attack
targeting an unspecified military target in Israel.[80] The
IDF stated that it intercepted two drones that were launched ”from the
east” and triggered alerts near Tel Aviv on the evening of October 6.[81] The IDF separately stated that it intercepted a drone from the east before it reached Israeli territory on October 6.[82]
A source from the Iraqi Resistance Coordination Committee—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi parties—told Iraqi outlet Baghdad Today that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias’ operations targeting US forces in Iraq and across the Middle East are “currently suspended.”[83] The
source added that the Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have agreed not to
target US forces in order to avoid escalation in part due to pressure on
the militias from Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani and
senior members of the Iranian-aligned Shia Coordination Framework to
“maintain calm.”[84]
The source denied that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducted the
rocket attack targeting US forces near the Baghdad International Airport
on October 1.[85]
This claim follows reports from anonymous Iraqi officials claiming that
the United States sent “strongly worded” messages to the Iraqi
government following the October 1 attack that the United States would
target Iranian-backed Iraqi militias if they continued to attack US
positions or further escalated against Israel.[86
Houthi
spokesperson Yahya Sarea claimed that the Houthis launched two
ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv and several Samad-4 drones at Tel Aviv
and Eilat on October 7.[87] IDF air defenses intercepted a Houthi missile.[88] The other Houthi drones and missiles do not appear to have struck any targets.

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi met with senior Syrian officials in Damascus on October 5.[89] Araghchi
emphasized the strategic relationship between Iran and Syria and
discussed the recent Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel in a
meeting with Syrian President Bashar al Assad.[90]
Araghchi and Assad discussed how to stop Israeli military operations in
Lebanon. Araghchi emphasized his desire to increase bilateral
cooperation in a meeting with Syrian Foreign Affairs and Expatriates
Minister Bassam Sabbagh.[91]
Iran is signaling that it could attack sensitive Israeli and regional infrastructure in response to an Israeli attack on Iran. IRGC-affiliated media published on October 7 a list of ten potential targets that Iran could strike in Israel.[92] The targets included key economic and military locations.[93]
IRGC Coordination Deputy Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naghdi
separately said on October 6 that Iran and the Axis of Resistance could
“make decisions” that affect the global price of oil, implying they
might attack regional energy assets and infrastructure that would
increase prices.[94]
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, on October 11.[95] Russian
media reported that the two will discuss the situation in the Middle
East on the sidelines of the ”Interconnection of Times and Civilizations
- the Basis of Peace and Development” forum.[96] Pezeshkian
and Putin will likely discuss the potential for an Israeli retaliation
for the recent Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel and how Iran
would respond.
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister
Abbas Araghchi said that Iran will give a “firm and appropriate
response” to any Israeli attack on Iran in a phone call with Egyptian
Foreign Affairs Minister Badr Abdelatty on October 7.[97] Araghchi stated that the Axis of Resistance maintains “full readiness” to confront Israeli ground operations in Lebanon.
Iranian
President Masoud Pezeshkian discussed the Iranian ballistic missile
attack on Israel on October 1 in a phone call with Dutch Prime Minister
Dick Schoof.[98]
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei awarded the Fath (victory) medal to IRGC Aerospace Commander Brigadier General Ali Hajji Zadeh on October 6.[99] Khamenei gave Hajji Zadeh the medal for his role in the Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1.[100]
Notable attendees of the ceremony included Artesh Commander Major
General Abol Rahim Mousavi and IRGC Commander Major General Hossein
Salami.[101] IRGC Quds Force Commander Esmail Ghaani was notably absent.[102]

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[71] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1843267895603966110
[72] https://t.me/mmirleb/7657
[73] https://t.me/mmirleb/7647 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7646 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7648 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7649 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7652 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7653 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7656 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7659 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7660 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7662 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7676 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7678
[74] https://t.me/mmirleb/7649
[75] https://t.me/moriahdoron/15231 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/7656
[76] https://t.me/mmirleb/7647
[77] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1843312931892769267
[78] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1843312941418029332
[79] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1843273443397210133 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1843045822545678403 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1843045814756941872
[80] https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/1313
[81] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1843122572428464320 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1843114195715502332
[82] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1843053659833487400
[83] https://baghdadtoday
dot
news/259386-%D8%AE%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%84-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%83%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A9.-%D8%AE%D8%B7%D9%88%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82-%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A6-%D9%88%D8%B3%D8%B7-%D8%B5%D8%AE%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86.html
[84] https://baghdadtoday
dot
news/259386-%D8%AE%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%84-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%83%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A9.-%D8%AE%D8%B7%D9%88%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82-%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A6-%D9%88%D8%B3%D8%B7-%D8%B5%D8%AE%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86.html
[85] https://baghdadtoday
dot
news/259386-%D8%AE%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%84-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%83%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A9.-%D8%AE%D8%B7%D9%88%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82-%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A6-%D9%88%D8%B3%D8%B7-%D8%B5%D8%AE%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86.html
[86] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-6-2024
[87] https://x.com/army21ye/status/1843342490130374890
[88] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1843301721378017694 ; https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1843304454952816945
[89] https://farsnews dot ir/r_yasin/1728128476081487330 ; https://www.facebook.com/mod.gov.sy/posts/868416388768582
[90] https://farsnews dot ir/r_yasin/1728128476081487330 ; https://www.facebook.com/mod.gov.sy/posts/868416388768582
[91] https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/696396
[92] https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/696598/
[93] https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/696598/
[94] https://www.defapress dot ir/fa/news/696571
[95] https://www.interfax dot ru/russia/985641
[96] https://x.com/NicoleGrajewski/status/1843316884080644328 ; https://tdh.gov
dot
tm/en/post/42214/state-organizing-committee-has-been-created-hold-international-forum-honour-300th-anniversary-magtymguly-fragi
[97] https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/696879/
[98] https://en.isna dot ir/news/1403071612537/Iran-intends-to-strengthen-ties-with-other-countries-including
[99] https://www.leader dot ir/fa/content/27679
[100] https://www.leader dot ir/fa/content/27679
[101] https://x.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1842878457455259972
[102] https://x.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1842878457455259972