Ashka Jhaveri, Andie Parry, Peter Mills, Amin Soltani, and Brian Carter
Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET
CTP-ISW will publish abbreviated updates on March 2 and 3, 2024. Detailed coverage will resume Monday, March 4, 2024.
The
Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored
activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US
forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the
stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical
Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly
based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the
region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.
Note:
CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war.
The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank,
Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of
Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because
these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly
affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We
utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva
Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe
them in these reports.
Click here
to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This
map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Click here to subscribe to the Iran Update.
Key Takeaways:
- Northern Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) concluded a two-week long operation in Zaytoun neighborhood, southeastern Gaza City on March 3. The continued Palestinian militia attacks demonstrate that Israeli forces have not fully cleared Zaytoun and Palestinian militias in southern Gaza City likely retain some capacity to fight despite the official end of the re-clearing effort.
- Southern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces expanded clearing operations in Khan Younis on March 3.
- Ceasefire Negotiations: Hamas responded to the most recent ceasefire proposal with demands for a permanent ceasefire and increased humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip.
- Northern Israel: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed a drone attack targeting a chemical plant at the Haifa Port on March 1.
- Red Sea: Italian destroyer Caio Duilio intercepted an unspecified drone flying towards the ship in the Red Sea on March 2.
Gaza Strip
Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:
- Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
- Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.
The
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) concluded a two-week long operation in
Zaytoun neighborhood, southeastern Gaza City on March 3.[1] Israel launched the operation on February 20 to re-clear Hamas fighters from Zaytoun.[2]
Palestinian militias sustained a high attack rate targeting Israeli
forces throughout the operation and likely infiltrated the area from
uncleared areas in the central Gaza Strip.[3]
The IDF reported on March 3 that its 162nd Division killed over 100
fighters and destroyed Hamas- and Palestinian Islamic Jihad-affiliated
military sites.[4]
Palestinian
fighters continued to attack Israeli forces in Zaytoun on March 3. The
continued Palestinian militia attacks demonstrate that Israeli forces
have not fully cleared Zaytoun and Palestinian militias in southern Gaza
City likely retain some capacity to fight despite the official end of
the re-clearing effort.[5]
The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, which is the self-proclaimed military
wing of Fatah and aligned with Hamas in the war, claimed several attacks
targeting Israeli forces in Zaytoun and south of the neighborhood using
rocket-propelled grenades and mortars.[6]
Palestinian Mujahideen Movement fighters fired an anti-tank rocket targeting an Israeli tank east of Jabalia.[7]
Israeli forces expanded clearing operations in Khan Younis on March 3.[8] The IDF Air Force conducted a wave of airstrikes as part of shaping efforts to enable ground maneuvers.[9]
Local footage and reports confirmed that the IDF expanded operations to
a pocket of uncleared area in Qarara in northern Khan Younis and Hamad
neighborhood in northwestern Khan Younis.[10] Hamas’ Qarara Battalion in the Khan Younis Brigade remains combat effective.[11]
Palestinian journalists reported that the IDF set up a checkpoint in
Hamad neighborhood and told civilians to evacuate to the Mawasi
humanitarian zone or Deir al Balah.[12]
Hamas
responded to the most recent ceasefire proposal with demands for a
permanent ceasefire and increased humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip.
This is consistent with Hamas’ prior demands during ceasefire
negotiations. International mediators have been waiting on a response
from Hamas regarding the February 23 framework that included a six-week
pause in fighting and the release of 400 Israeli-held Palestinian
prisoners in exchange for Hamas releasing 40 Israeli hostages.[13] Israel has reportedly accepted the proposal.[14]
An Israeli official told Israeli media on March 3 that Israel received
an answer from Hamas about the framework. The official said that Hamas
did not in its answer address Israel’s demand to receive information on
the status of the hostages it holds in the Gaza Strip and how many
Palestinian prisoners Israel must release for every hostage freed.[15]
A senior Hamas official told an unspecified Qatari newspaper that Hamas
"will not provide any details about the abductees it is holding without
significant relief [for]...the residents of Gaza and the application of
a comprehensive ceasefire."[16]
A
“highly placed” diplomatic source told CNN that Hamas would not agree
to any hostage deal without Israel agreeing “to [a] permanent ceasefire
or at least a path to a ceasefire,” an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza
Strip, and allowing Gazan civilians to reenter the northern Strip.[17]
Hamas is also demanding a certain amount of aid reach the southern and
northern strip before agreeing to a deal. The source assessed that it is
unlikely they will reach a deal in the next 48 hours.
A
Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo on March 3 for ceasefire talks that
US and Egyptian negotiators are also expected to attend.[18] An
unspecified senior Hamas source confirmed to CNN that the delegation
arrived. The official refused to confirm any details about the groups’
position, noting that what is being reported is “speculation and leaks.”
It is unclear what parts of Hamas’ reported position the official was
referring to. Israeli negotiators were initially expected to attend the
talks in Cairo. However, unspecified Israeli officials stated on March 3
that Israel would not send a delegation to Cairo after Hamas reiterated
its demands for a permanent ceasefire.[19]
Two US sources told Axios that US President Joe Biden urged Qatari and Egyptian leaders to “get a deal” from Hamas before the start of Ramadan.[20] Biden
spoke with the leaders on February 29 to discuss ceasefire
negotiations. Ramadan is expected to begin on March 10. Israeli
officials, including War Cabinet member Benny Gantz, have warned that
Israeli forces will begin clearing operations in Rafah at the start of
Ramadan if Hamas does not release the remaining Israeli hostages the
group holds.[21]
Palestinian fighters conducted three indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel on March 3.[22]
Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.
West Bank
Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:
- Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there
Israeli
forces have clashed with Palestinian fighters in six locations across
the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 2.[23]
This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.
Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights
Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:
- Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
- Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel
Iranian-backed
militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted at least six
attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last
data cutoff on March 2.[24]
Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.
Iran and Axis of Resistance
Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:
- Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
- Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts
The
Islamic Resistance in Iraq — a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi
militias — claimed a drone attack targeting a chemical plant at the
Haifa Port on March 1.[25]
The group announced the attack on March 3. The IDF did not report a
drone attack on Haifa on March 1, but an Israeli journalist reported
that the IDF did shoot down a “suspicious aerial target” over the city
on February 29.[26] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq last attacked Israel on February 12 in the Golan Heights.[27] The group has not claimed an attack on US forces since February 4 but has continued attacks targeting Israel.[28]
Italian destroyer Caio Duilio intercepted an unspecified drone flying towards the ship in the Red Sea on March 2.[29]
[1] https://www dot timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-it-killed-over-100-hamas-gunmen-in-2-week-operation-in-gaza-citys-zeitoun/
[2] https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1759939842937385257
[3] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-28-2024
[4] https://www dot timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-it-killed-over-100-hamas-gunmen-in-2-week-operation-in-gaza-citys-zeitoun/
[5] https://t.me/darebmojahden/4511; https://t.me/darebmojahden/4514; https://t.me/pflpgaza1/13878; https://t.me/nedalps/4018; https://t.me/nedalps/4019; https://t.me/nedalps/4020; https://t.me/darebmojahden/4519
[6] https://t.me/nedalps/4018; https://t.me/nedalps/4019; https://t.me/nedalps/4020
[7] https://t.me/darebmojahden/4510
[8] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1764188165642805459
[9] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1764188218566557714
[10] https://twitter.com/orfialkov/status/1764041361592840490; https://t.me/hamza20300/219762; https://t.me/hamza20300/219852
[11] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/order-battle-hamas%E2%80%99-izz-al-din-al-qassem-brigades-part-2
[12] https://t.me/hamza20300/219778; https://t.me/hamza20300/219779
[13] https://www.axios.com/2024/03/03/biden-hostage-ceasefire-deal-gaza-israel-hamas
[14] https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-03-03-24/h_4268d0f1fd2839d103935e3bc91f6634
[15] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/hamas-refuses-to-supply-list-of-living-hostages-israel-wont-send-team-to-cairo-talks-today/, ; https://www dot jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/2024-03-03/live-updates-789911#11714
[16] https://www dot jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/2024-03-03/live-updates-789911#11714
[17] https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-03-03-24/h_32cfea487a7087f77ea6dc73780c7437
[18] https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-03-03-24/h_9533482c3facba1202e81025bf5397b9
[19] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/hamas-refuses-to-supply-list-of-living-hostages-israel-wont-send-team-to-cairo-talks-today/
[20] https://www.axios.com/2024/03/03/biden-hostage-ceasefire-deal-gaza-israel-hamas
[21] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/gantz-no-peace-via-one-sided-moves-rafah-invasion-by-ramadan-if-hostages-not-home/
[22] https://t.me/darebmojahden/4516; https://t.me/alwya2000/6182; https://t.me/darebmojahden/4516, https://t.me/alwya2000/6184;
https://t.me/alwya2000/6182; https://t.me/alwya2000/6184
[23] https://t.me/jeninqassamm/4914; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1764018855116951856; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5904; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5905; https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1764283086596972682 ; https://t.me/QudsN/377695; https://t.me/QudsN/377716
[24] https://t.me/mmirleb/2385
https://t.me/mmirleb/2386
https://t.me/mmirleb/2387
https://t.me/mmirleb/2389
https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1764319012542873857 https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1764313130887197053
https://t.me/C_Military1/46722
https://t.me/C_Military1/46724
[25] https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/966
[26] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1763149681482199258/history
[27] https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/963
[28] https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/954
[29] https://www.difesa.it/primopiano/difesa-nave-duilio-abbatte-drone-nel-mar-rosso/48363.html ; https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/03/italian-navy-destroyer-caio-duilio-shoots-down-drone-in-red-sea/ ; https://twitter.com/MinisteroDifesa/status/1764002072750383482
