Andie Parry, Annika Ganzeveld, Alexandra Braverman, and Brian Carter
Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET
The
Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored
activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US
forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the
stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical
Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly
based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the
region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.
Note:
CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war.
The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank,
Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of
Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because
these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly
affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We
utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva
Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe
them in these reports.
Click here
to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This
map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Click here to subscribe to the Iran Update.
CTP-ISW will publish abbreviated updates on March 16 and 17, 2024. Detailed coverage will resume Monday, March 18, 2024
Key Takeaways:
Gaza Strip
Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:
The
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) 162nd Division and combat engineers
demolished a 2.5-kilometer-long tunnel in the northern Gaza Strip during
the week of March 10.[1] The IDF called the tunnel the
“longest underground route” in the northern Gaza Strip that it has
discovered during the war. The tunnel network allowed Hamas units to
move between the northern and southern Gaza Strip.[2]
The IDF Nahal Brigade (162nd Division) conducted clearing operations in the northern and central Gaza Strip on March 17.[3] The Nahal Brigade killed 18 Palestinian fighters operating near IDF positions using airstrikes, tank fire, and sniper fire.[4] The IDF Nahal Brigade has been operating in the area between the northern and central Gaza Strip for two weeks.[5] The IDF has been constructing a highway in this area, which the IDF has dubbed the “Netzarim corridor.”[6]
This corridor divides the northern and southern parts of the Gaza
Strip. The Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP),
which is a leftist Palestinian militia aligned with Hamas in the war,
mortared Israeli forces at the ”Netzarim site” near the Israeli-built
road.[7] Palestinian militias also claimed rocket and small arms attacks near the corridor.[8]
Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, which is
the self-proclaimed military wing of Fatah and aligned with Hamas in the
war, mortared Israeli positions in the eastern part of the Gaza Strip‘s
Central governorate in three separate attacks.[9]
Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in Khan Younis on March 17. The IDF said that the IDF Givati Brigade (162nd Division) is still conducting clearing operations in Hamad.[10] The IDF 7th Brigade (36th Division) fought Palestinian fighters and seized weapons in Khan Younis.[11] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades also engaged Israeli forces operating in Khan Younis.[12]
The
Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) mortared Israeli
forces at Nahal Oz, which is close to the Israel-Gaza Strip border, on
March 17.[13] The PFLP is a secular, leftist Palestinian group fighting alongside Hamas in the war.
Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.
West Bank
Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:
Israeli
forces have clashed with Palestinian fighters in at least two locations
in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 16.[14]
The IDF arrested seven wanted individuals across the West Bank on March 17.[15] The IDF confiscated materials needed for manufacturing improvised explosive devices during an operation in Hebron.
This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.
Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights
Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:
Iranian-backed
militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted at least seven
attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last
data cutoff on March 16.[16] The IDF reported that it shot down a “suspicious aerial target” over Acre on March 16.[17] The IDF often uses this language to refer to suspected drones
Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.
Iran and Axis of Resistance
Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:
US
Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that US forces destroyed five naval
attack drones and one aerial drone in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen
on March 16.[18] CENTCOM assessed that these weapons presented an “imminent threat” to commercial vessels and US Navy ships in the Red Sea.[19]
Houthi-controlled and pro-Axis of Resistance media claimed that the
United States and the United Kingdom conducted airstrikes in al
Durayhimi, Hudaydah governorate and in al Taiziyah, Taiz governorate, on
March 16.[20]
CENTCOM also reported that the Houthis launched two drones toward the Red Sea on March 16.[21] CENTCOM intercepted one of the drones. CENTCOM assessed that the second drone likely crashed into the Red Sea.[22] Neither drone caused any casualties aboard or damage to nearby vessels.
The Houthis likely fired at least one unspecified missile targeting the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker MADO in the Gulf of Aden on March 16.[23] UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that an unspecified actor fired at least one missile targeting the MADO.
This incident marks the second time the Houthis have targeted this
vessel in two days. The UKMTO previously reported that an explosion
occurred near the MADO in the Red Sea approximately 65 nautical miles west of Hudaydah on March 15.[24]
The
Israeli Air Force likely conducted air strikes targeting a Hezbollah
ammunitions depot and other Syrian army positions along the
Damascus-Homs highway on March 17.[25] The Syrian Defense
Ministry said that the strikes targeted several sites in southern Syria,
damaging property and injuring one Syrian soldier.[26] Israeli Army Radio reported that the strikes targeted Syrian army positions and Hezbollah ammunition depots.[27] A Syria-focused analyst noted that the area has a large Hezbollah presence.[28]
CTP-ISW has previously reported that the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary
Guards Corps (IRGC) may have previously used this highway as a weapons
transportation route.[29] The airstrikes caused significant secondary explosions, potentially confirming that the strike targeted an ammunitions
[1] www dot idf.il/186581
[2] www dot idf.il/186581
[3] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1769250238487785741 https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1769250279344513371
[4] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1769250238487785741 https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1769250279344513371 ; https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1769260370114347198
[5] https://www.idf dot il/186268
[6] https://www.idf dot il/186268 ; https://twitter.com/wesleysmorgan/status/1759333045524402287?s=46&t=Pd9EQ5ncm-TX8rDDEiGN2Q
[7] https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4173
[8] https://t.me/sarayaps/17568 ; https://t.me/nedalps/4039 ; https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4172 ; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1766
https://t.me/mojahdeenpal/4372
[9] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6029 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/17567 ; https://t.me/nedalps/4042
[10] www dot idf.il/186393;
https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1769250283865972830
[11] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1769250286424543300
[12] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6030
[13] https://t.me/pflpgaza1/13909
[14] https://t.me/QudsN/382661 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6028 ; https://t.me/QudsN/382742
[15] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1769295543254077624
[16] https://t.me/mmirleb/2693 ;
https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1769136697416044952 ;
https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1769321600682188801 ;
https://t.me/mmirleb/2689 ;
https://t.me/mmirleb/2695 ;
https://t.me/mmirleb/2697 ;
https://t.me/mmirleb/2699 ;
[17] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1769136697416044952
[18] https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1769152861366006228
[19] https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1769152861366006228
[20] https://t.me/C_Military1/47321;
https://t.me/TuthiatAlshiyea/65051;
https://twitter.com/TvAlmasirah/status/1769098597134475551
[21] https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1769152861366006228
[22] https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1769152861366006228
[23] https://twitter.com/UK_MTO/status/1769368388327833681
[24] https://twitter.com/UK_MTO/status/1769047871909666883
[25] https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1769133685029109995 ; https://www.facebook.com/mod.gov.sy/posts/pfbid0XSbZ228ey8fdp2rvwa9w73WX8bnrYugBRKuVABjmd3UryhHsTvwnc9mKCtu4G9qQl ; https://twitter.com/obretix/status/1769333738234646852 ; https://t.me/damascusv011/21385
[26] https://www.facebook.com/mod.gov.sy/posts/pfbid0XSbZ228ey8fdp2rvwa9w73WX8bnrYugBRKuVABjmd3UryhHsTvwnc9mKCtu4G9qQl
[27] https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1769133685029109995
[28] https://twitter.com/QalaatM/status/1769307215125483933 ; https://twitter.com/QalaatM/status/1769313128989233324
[29] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-february-24-2023 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-1-2023 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-13-2023