ISIS Sanctuary: March 3, 2016

By: ISW Research Team

Since the publication of ISW’s last ISIS Sanctuary Map on January 16, 2016, ISIS lost a major resource hub in Shaddadi, northeastern Syria and was expelled from its remaining positions in Ramadi, western Iraq. ISIS responded by launching a campaign against Kurdish forces in Tel Abyad, northern Syria, and briefly seizing the city of Khanaser, southeast of Aleppo from Syrian regime forces. ISIS also launched a wave of explosive attacks across Iraq and Syria, beginning with six suicide attacks on Homs and Damascus on February 22. ISIS likely aims to increase overall disorder by attacking civilian and military targets linked to Shi’a governments in Damascus and Baghdad, thereby facilitating its defense and opening new opportunities for its expansion. This map also features an updated representation of ISIS’s zone of control in northern Aleppo province, which was previously represented as a sanctuary zone. 

Regime Counterpunch in Southern Aleppo

by Valerie Szybala and Charlie Caris

In late September the Syrian military launched an offensive to reopen a crucial eastern route between Hama and southern Aleppo. This route – which arcs east from Hama, through the desert and up through the Safira plain – provides an alternative to the main highway between Aleppo and Hama which is largely under rebel control. The regime lost control of large portions of the route in the September rebel wal-‘Adiyat Dabha [“The Panting Chargers”] offensive in southern Aleppo province. If the regime can gain control of this eastern route, it will gain a critical lifeline to forces stationed at the Nayrab and Kuweires air bases and as-Safira military base and chemical weapons facilities. Kuweires has been largely restricted to aerial resupply for several months due to ongoing rebel siege, and battles for control around Nayrab and as-Safira have made regular ground resupply difficult for the Syrian army.

Map by Isabel Nassief

The first indications of the regime counteroffensive came on September 27-28 when Syrian activists on social media began reporting sightings of a large military convoy with well over 100 vehicles leaving from the area of the Hama Military Airport. Video footage from one source suggests that the convoy was comprised primarily of civilian trucks as opposed to military vehicles. Reports that the convoy consisted of 200-250 vehicles by the time that it left the vicinity of Hama city, as well as conflicting reports of smaller convoys of different sizes and composition, indicate that the initial column of supply trucks sighted near the Hama Military Airport joined with other forces prior to departing from the vicinity of Hama city. It is clear from later reporting and video evidence that the larger convoy which departed eastward contained significant armed elements, some suggesting that it included up to 25 T-72 tanks, in addition to a large number of personnel carriers, BMP attack vehicles, and support helicopters. Some sources also indicated the possible presence of irregular forces – including Hezbollah and the National Defense Forces (NDF) – within or alongside the regime convoy. While it is plausible that conventional regime forces are operating in an integrated manner with irregular forces, which has been observed since the battle of al-Qusayr, it is not confirmed in this case, and remains unclear how such forces would interact with regular armed units in terms of roles and responsibilities. The regime’s deployment of integrated forces warrants further study, but for now the presence of Hezbollah deep in Aleppo province cannot be validated.

After leaving Hama, the convoy moved east through as-Salamiya, which lies on the highway to al-Raqqa. The large size of this convoy, composed apparently of supply trucks, point the regime’s ultimate goal of resupplying its besieged troops at the air bases and as-Safira.

There are no reports of rebel engagements during the first part of the convoy’s journey, likely because the desert route is sparsely populated east of Hama. Upon reaching the village of al-Athriya, the convoy turned north towards rebel-controlled Khanasir, an important link in the Salamiya-Aleppo ground supply route. Rebel forces first seized control of the town in late August and continued to liberate a number of other villages in southern Aleppo throughout September as part of the wal-‘Adiyat Dabha operation. Prior to August, however, Khanasir was regime-controlled, and rebels were limited to long-distance rocket attacks on passing supply convoys in order to disrupt regime combat service support in Aleppo.

Just before arriving to Khanasir, reports indicate the regime convoy paused for a few days on September 30 near the village of al-Qurabatiya, just 5 km south of Khanasir, to receive additional reinforcements from Hama. During this time, regime planes and helicopters saturated Khanasir and surrounding villages with barrel bombs, more than 30 by some accounts, as well as shelling, in order to prepare the area for a ground assault. When the regime forces began to move into Khanasir, rebel forces were quickly outgunned, and by October 3, the city had fallen back into regime hands. The use of barrel bombs, which are basically improvised explosive devices dropped from planes and helicopters, by regime forces has become increasingly visible in recent months, particularly in Idlib and Aleppo provinces. These barrel bombs, which are not precision guided, are generally filled with oil, explosives, and metal, which sends shrapnel out over a wide area for maximum effect. Their heavy use in areas where the regime has a lighter ground presence could be indicative of a scorched earth policy of indiscriminate destruction to regain rebel-held territory. It could also point to decreasing reserves of standard ordinances and greater difficulty the regime faces in receiving new weapons shipments from abroad.

From Khanasir, the regime continued to press northward towards as-Safira on a route that skirts the shores of Lake Jabbul. Unlike the desert highway outside of Hama, both this route and the nearby Safira plains are populated with small villages, and regime forces suffered heavy losses along the way, including a rebel car bomb and large ambush. While regime forces were able to overrun a number of small villages from October 5-8, and even prematurely declared the Salamiya-Aleppo Highway open to civilian traffic, there are reports that rebels recaptured villages soon after the convoy departed.

On October 8, after receiving additional reinforcements from Tal Abour near Aleppo, the regime finalized preparations for an assault on as-Safira by beginning a devastating campaign of air strikes and bombardments on the city. As-Safira is an important city for several reasons: it is a key location on the alternate supply route to Aleppo, in close proximity to both the besieged Kuweires military airbase to the east of the city and the Nayrab military airbase, which is co-located with Aleppo International Airport; and the outskirts of as-Safira are home to site of some of Syria’s biggest chemical weapons research, production, and storage facilities. While the large number of supply trucks in the convoy suggest that the primary mission was to re-establish ground supply routes to besieged bases, with the OPCW inspectors visiting chemical weapons sites around the country it is likely that securing the area around the Safira complex in preparation for their visit was an additional objective of the regime offensive.

By the time the regime attempted its assault on as-Safira, rebel forces had received their own reinforcements. This is indicated by the FSA-affiliated as-Safira Operations Room, which issued a statement thanking all of the units that responded to their earlier call for assistance. The rebel forces participating in these battles include both Free Syrian Army brigades, coordinated by the as-Safira Operations Room, as well as  more extreme Salafi Islamic groups including Ahrar al-Sham, Jabhat al-Nusra, and the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham. As of the time of posting, the battle around as-Safira was ongoing, with the regime still unable to make major gains north of the city.

If the regime is able to wrest control of as-Safira, it will be a major setback for rebel forces, who have been building up their presence along the Hama-Aleppo supply route since at least the beginning of the summer. With control of as-Safira the regime would not only have an open supply line to southern Aleppo city, it would also have a clear route to Nayrab and Kuweiris air bases. Both sites have faced challenges in ground resupply, and Kuweiris Air Base in particular has been under constant rebel siege for many months. Large-scale aerial resupply is not a sustainable strategy for the Syrian regime, particularly with capacity at all of its airports frequently diminished due to attacks. The regime must control a ground supply route to its remaining strongholds in Aleppo strongholds if it hopes to hold onto them and to make future gains in the northern Syria, where rebels continue to consolidate their gains.

Videos:

• Video of regime convoy IVO al-Salamiya, Hama – 9/27
• Video of the regime convoy IVO Khanasir, Aleppo – 10/03
• Barrel bomb from helicopter on as-Safira, Aleppo - 10/10
• Results of barrel bombs on as-Safira, Aleppo - 10/13   

The wal-‘Adiyat Dabha Offensive in Southern Aleppo

by Charlie Caris and Isabel Nassief

A group of rebel brigades, led by Ahrar al-Sham and Liwa al-Tawheed, have launched an offensive called wal-‘Adiyat Dabha against regime-held towns south of Aleppo city. The offensive comes after several rebel gains in Aleppo over the last two months. Of the brigades involved, five are signatories to the recent Islamic alliance announced by the leader of Liwa al-Tawhid on September 24th.


This area of southern Aleppo was the site of a government offensive focused on securing airbases and supply lines while clearing surrounding towns. In late June, however, the regime was quickly forced to abandon its offensive and return troops to Homs, where rebels had been able to take advantage of the regime’s vulnerability. Since then rebels have made significant gains in Aleppo province, taking control of Khan al-Assal, a town on the western outskirts of Aleppo city, in July. On August 5th, rebel forces led by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham captured Menagh airbase, and later that month rebels also took control of the town of Khanassir, which sits on a critical government supply route between Homs and Aleppo city.


The current rebel offensive was announced on September 20th with the stated objective of “seizing control of the major and secondary supply routes” in the countryside south of Aleppo. The operation, entitled wal-‘Adiyat Dabha (a Quranic phrase roughly translated as “The Panting Chargers”) was advertised as a milestone in cooperation between various rebel battalions in and around Aleppo.


As rebel battalions began their assault last week, the operation gained traction on social media, and Youtube videos appeared bearing a distinct logo specifically designed for wal-‘Adiyat Dabha. The following day Ahrar al-Sham, one of the most prominent partners in the operation, circulated a map showing villages south of Aleppo that the rebels wanted to wrest from regime control. The operational plan, as shown on the map, depicts rebel forces advancing from the west, south, and east, near a regime defense factory, and continuing on towards southern Aleppo city and Nayrab military air base. In the six days since the operation began, rebel forces appear to have stayed true to the map, and claim to have liberated at least 25 villages south of Aleppo city. The newly-liberated villages are: Kafr Hout, al-Zara’a, Kafr Kar, Banan al-Has, Sarj Far’a, Balouza, Burj A’zawi, Madrasa village, Im Jaran, Qanatrat, Samaria, Maghriyat al-Shebli, al-Mayan, al-Manatir, Rasm al-Safa, Rasm Humud, Mazra’a Ali Hussein, Diyman, Sada’aya, Rasm al-Shih, Mazra’a al-Ayoub, Rasm al-Hilwa, Tayeba, Rasm ‘Akirish, and al-Safira.






Pro-Assad forces have responded to the rebel offensive by reinforcing regime strongholds near the airport, shelling contested areas such as as-Safira village, and deploying troops from Nayrab airbase to engage rebels directly in the contested villages. New reports show rebel-fired Grad rockets striking Aleppo International Airport on September 25th, and videos indicate that rebel forces continued to shore up liberated villages including the heavily-contested Madajin area, on September 26th.


Of the rebel battalions we have documented taking part in wal-‘Adiyat Dabha, Ahrar al-Sham, Liwa al-Tawhid, Liwa al-Ansar, Kata’ib Nour al-Din al-Zenki, and al-Furqa 19 (aka Liwa Amjad al-Islam) are all signatories to the recent “Islamic alliance.” Other participants include Jabhat al-Na’im al-Islami, Liwa Halab al-Madina al-Islami, Liwa Ahrar Souria, Kata’ib Abu Amara, and al-Furqa 9 Special Forces, although this list may not be exhaustive.


Since the timing and location of this offensive coincide with the newly-announced Islamic alliance and its membership significantly overlaps with the offensive participants, wal-‘Adiyat Dabha might in some respects be viewed as a showcase of the strength of the Islamic alliance signatories. Their capacity to successfully launch operations and gain territory in Aleppo may give the Islamic alliance members additional leverage in talks with General Salim Idris, Chief of Staff of the FSA’s Supreme Military Council (SMC), who has cut his trip to France short in order to meet with alliance members. It might also strengthen the position of alliance members in Aleppo ahead of an impending battle with ISIS, which has taken the border town of Azaz and may be blocking rebel re-supply from that route.


Heavy fighting was ongoing as of the time of writing, and we expect to see additional development as rebel and regime forces continue to maneuver for control of key supply routes throughout Aleppo province. For those who wish to follow reports of this battle on social media sites, “ضبحا العاديات” is the name of the offensive in Arabic. We are also looking for indicators that additional rebel battalions have signed on to the Islamic alliance. A likely candidate for admission is Liwa Ahrar Souria, whose official Facebook page recently removed the FSA symbol from their logo.