By: Christopher Kozak
The Syrian regime reportedly
began a ground offensive in northwestern Syria with support from Russian
airstrikes, marking the first overt example of coordination between Russian and
Syrian military forces since the start of the Russian air campaign in Syria on
September 30. Accounts from Syrian officials and activists indicated that
Syrian Army units backed by allied militiamen and Hezbollah reinforcements launched
coordinated attacks
against rebel positions along the border between northern Hama Province and
southern Idlib Province amidst an intense Russian aerial bombardment
of the surrounding area. The attacks centered upon the rebel-held towns of Latmin,
Tel
al-Sayyad, and Khan
Sheikhoun, which are all located on or along the strategic M5 Highway
connecting Hama City to Aleppo City. Although there have been no reports of
Russian ground forces participating in the fighting, the clashes follow indications
that Iran deployed hundreds of additional Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps
(IRGC) members and mobilized hundreds of other fighters from its local and
regional proxy forces in order to participate in a major
offensive in northwestern Syria. The start of the offensive also coincided
with the announcement that four Russian warships in the Caspian Sea fired at
least twenty-six cruise
missiles against alleged “ISIS targets” in Syria. Thus far, no major advances for regime forces
have been reported.
The location and targets of this
escalation provide further evidence that the Russian air campaign in Syria
intends to bolster regime forces in pursuing the objectives of Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad rather than defeat ISIS. The terrain contested by the offensive
has no notable ISIS presence and is instead held by a mix of rebel factions
ranging from Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra to U.S.-backed Free
Syrian Army (FSA) affiliates such as Tajamu al-Izza. These groups previously staged
a major offensive
in 2014 which directly threatened regime control of the Hama Military Airport
and they retain the ability to challenge the regime in its core terrain throughout
the Hama countryside. A successful offensive to drive rebel forces from this
region would alleviate this threat and divert Syrian rebels from further
assaults on regime positions defending the Alawite
heartland of Latakia Province to the west. Over the long-term, advances by
pro-regime forces could also provide an avenue for the Syrian regime and its
allies to conduct further operations along the M5 Highway and reestablish a
presence in rebel-held Idlib Province after being largely driven from the region
over the past six months.
