By: Christopher Kozak
The Syrian regime and its allies launched a major, multi-pronged offensive in
Aleppo Province on October 15 in order to bolster the regime's foothold in
Aleppo City. Both Russia and Iran likely aim to enable Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad to reassert control over Syria’s largest city given the heavy
involvement of their military forces in these operations. Russia and Iran
will not limit their support to reinforcing the regime's defenses in
its heartland along the Syrian coast. Regime forces supported by Iranian
proxy fighters conducted an unsuccessful operation to complete the encirclement
of rebel forces inside Aleppo City in February 2015. Expanded Russian and
Iranian support could enable the Syrian regime to mount a renewed effort to
besiege the city.
The renewed ground operations aim at a minimum to relieve the
long-standing sieges of pro-regime enclaves in Aleppo Province. Joint regime
and Iranian forces began a push to relieve several hundred Syrian Army soldiers
trapped in the Kuweires Airbase east of Aleppo City on October 15. ISIS forces
have threatened to overrun the airbase at least twice over the past few months.
Pro-regime forces may also ultimately seek to lift the siege on the
Shi’a-majority towns of Nubl and Zahraa northwest of Aleppo City, which have
been besieged by rebel forces since July 2012. Alawite populations along the
Syrian Coast – a core support zone for the Syrian regime – organized several
protests this summer criticizing the government for failing to relieve the
siege of Nubl, Zahraa, and Kuweires Airbase. A successful operation to relieve
the base would provide a powerful morale boost to Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad’s base of popular support and tamper simmering discontent regarding
his conduct of the Syrian Civil War.
Syrian forces also began the second prong of
the offensive against rebel-held villages south of Aleppo City on October
15. The operation received support from both Russian airstrikes and up to 2,000
Iranian, Hezbollah, and Iraqi Shi’a militia fighters led by Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – Quds Force commander Maj. Gen. Qassem
Suleimani. Aleppo-based rebel factions reinforced their positions with hundreds
of fighters drawn from Aleppo City and the northern Aleppo countryside. Several
rebel factions also deployed TOW anti-tank missiles systems provided by a covert
U.S.-backed Military Operations Command (MOC) based in Turkey. Pro-regime
forces have thus far seized at least seven villages amidst heavy clashes which
in turn destroyed at least fifteen regime tanks, bulldozers, and armored
personnel carriers.
The maneuver south of Aleppo City likely aims to
set conditions for an upcoming offensive to isolate rebel forces in
Aleppo City. Regime and Iranian forces began conducting probing attacks along
rebel frontlines throughout northwestern Syria after the Russian air
campaign began on September 30. These localized offensives likely
constitute components of a larger campaign designed to confuse and
overextend rebel forces in advance of a decisive operation to penetrate into
core rebel-held terrain. The decisive blow will likely target
rebel positions north of Aleppo City. The attacks south of Aleppo City may thus
constitute an attempt draw rebel reinforcements away from Aleppo City and fix
them far from the northern Aleppo countryside. Any successful operation to seize
or otherwise neutralize Aleppo City would deal a powerful symbolic and material
blow to the Syrian opposition. Tightening control over Syria’s largest city
would also place the Syrian regime and its allies in a position of strength
before any negotiations regarding a political transition, an initial proposal
for which the U.S. and eight other countries floated over the past few weeks.
