UA-69458566-1

Sunday, May 11, 2025

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 11, 2025

Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, Grace Mappes, Daria Novikov, Anna Harvey, and Frederick W. Kagan with William Runkel

May 11, 2025, 4:45 pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of Ukraine's offensive in Kursk Oblast.

Click here to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 11:15am ET on May 11. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the May 12 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin called for Russia and Ukraine to resume bilateral negotiations based on the early 2022 Istanbul protocols that include Russian demands amounting to full Ukrainian surrender. Any agreement based on those protocols would be a capitulation document. Putin spoke to media organizations on the night of May 10 to 11, following the joint US-Ukrainian-European proposal for a general ceasefire at least 30 days long beginning on May 12.[1] Putin did not agree to the joint US-Ukrainian-European proposal and instead proposed that Russia and Ukraine "resume" the direct negotiations that he claimed "[Ukraine] interrupted" in 2022 on May 15.[2] Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov stated that Russia will soon announce its delegation to the resumed negotiations in Istanbul and that such negotiations should account for "developments of the 2022 talks."[3]

Putin and Ushakov are referring to Russia's April 2022 Istanbul protocols draft agreement, which included terms that would have amounted to Ukraine's surrender and left Ukraine helpless to defend against potential future Russian aggression.[4] The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and the New York Times (NYT) reported in March and June 2024 that both publications obtained several versions of the draft protocols from the April 2022 Ukrainian-Russian peace negotiations in Istanbul.[5] The draft protocols demanded that Ukraine forego its NATO membership aspirations and amend its constitution to add a neutrality provision that would ban Ukraine from joining any military alliances, concluding military agreements, or hosting foreign military personnel, trainers, or weapon systems in Ukraine. Russia also demanded that it, the United States, the United Kingdom (UK), the People's Republic of China (PRC), France, and Belarus serve as security guarantors of the agreement. Russia demanded that the guarantor states “terminate international treaties and agreements incompatible with the permanent neutrality [of Ukraine]," including military aid agreements. Russia demanded to limit the Ukrainian military to 85,000 soldiers, 342 tanks, and 519 artillery systems as part of the Istanbul protocols. Russia additionally demanded that Ukrainian missiles be limited to a range of 40 kilometers (25 miles), a range that would allow Russian forces to deploy critical systems and materiel close to Ukraine without fear of strikes.

Russia insisted on these terms in the first and second months of the war when Russian troops were advancing on Kyiv City and throughout northeastern, eastern, and southern Ukraine. Russia is now attempting to reiterate these same demands after three years of war, despite the fact that Ukrainian forces have since successfully forced Russia to withdraw from northern Ukraine, liberated significant swaths of territory in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts, and blunted the Russian rate of advance across the theater. Putin is rejecting the joint US-Ukrainian-European proposal for a general ceasefire and instead continues to demand Ukrainian surrender in an attempt to secure his strategic goals by drawing out negotiations while continuing to make battlefield gains.

Putin also continues to demand that any negotiations address Russia's perceived "root causes" of the war in Ukraine. Putin stated during the press conference that the purpose of renewed bilateral Russian-Ukrainian negotiations would be to "eliminate the root causes" of the war in Ukraine.[6] Putin suggested that Russia and Ukraine could pursue a ceasefire as part of these renewed negotiations, but claimed that a "real truce" should not enable the "rearmament" and "replenishment" of the Ukrainian military. The Kremlin has repeatedly claimed that Russia must eliminate the "root causes" of the war in Ukraine, which Russian officials have defined as NATO's alleged violation of commitments not to expand into Eastern Europe and along Russia's borders in the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, and the Ukrainian government's alleged discrimination against ethnic Russians and Russian language, media, and culture in Ukraine.[7] Kremlin officials recently claimed that any ceasefire agreement should limit Ukraine's ability to mobilize and train new troops and receive Western military aid, while failing to offer similar concessions for Russia to limit its own force generation and defense production efforts.[8] Calls for the elimination of these alleged "root causes" and limitations on Ukraine's force generation capabilities are in line with Putin's demands for Ukrainian neutrality, as well as Putin's pre-war demand that would have required NATO to roll back to its pre-1997 borders.[9]

Putin is attempting to manipulate ongoing discussions about a ceasefire and future peace in Ukraine, likely in an effort to undermine Ukrainian-US-European unity around a comprehensive 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine. Kremlin officials have recently intensified their engagement with Western media in an effort to message directly to the Trump administration and American public and portray Russia's terms for Ukraine's surrender as reasonable.[10] Putin's May 11 press conference and Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov's recent interviews with Western media are part of an attempt to inject Kremlin narratives into the Western information space aimed at convincing the West that Russia is able to conquer all of Ukraine militarily and scaring Ukraine and the West into conceding to Russia's demands.[11] Putin's rhetorical posturing is an attempt to conceal limitations in the Russian military's capabilities and distract from Russia's failure to make any significant progress on the battlefield over the last two years. Putin and other Kremlin officials firmly maintain their war aims that amount to Ukraine's full capitulation and have thus far refused to consider any peace deal that does not concede to all of Russia's demands.[12] The Kremlin is falsely portraying itself as willing to engage in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine while continuing to attack frontline Ukrainian positions and setting conditions for further military aggression against Ukraine and NATO in the coming years.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accepted Russian President Vladimir Putin's proposal to hold bilateral negotiations in Turkey on May 15. Zelensky stated that he will personally wait for Putin in Turkey and that Ukraine is waiting for Russia to agree to the US-Ukrainian-European general ceasefire proposal.[13] Putin discussed renewing the 2022 Istanbul negotiations in a call with Erdogan on May 11, and Erdogan expressed support for resuming talks.[14] Erdogan noted during his call with Putin that a comprehensive ceasefire would "create the necessary environment" for peace talks.[15] European officials largely called on Putin to agree to a comprehensive ceasefire agreement before beginning bilateral peace negotiations with Ukraine.[16]

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin called for Russia and Ukraine to resume bilateral negotiations based on the early 2022 Istanbul protocols that include Russian demands amounting to full Ukrainian surrender. Any agreement based on those protocols would be a capitulation document.
  • Putin also continues to demand that any negotiations address Russia's perceived "root causes" of the war in Ukraine.
  • Putin is attempting to manipulate ongoing discussions about a ceasefire and future peace in Ukraine, likely in an effort to undermine Ukrainian-US-European unity around a comprehensive 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accepted Russian President Vladimir Putin's proposal to hold bilateral negotiations in Turkey on May 15.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk. Russian forces recently advanced in the northern Kharkiv and Novopavlivka directions.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

  • Alleged Ceasefire Violations
  • Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation
  • Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis
  • Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of three subordinate main efforts)
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and possibly advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
  • Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
  • Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
  • Significant Activity in Belarus

Alleged Ceasefire Violations

There are no active ceasefires in Ukraine.

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation

Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks in Kursk Oblast on May 11.

Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked southwest of Glushkovo along the international border near Tetkino, Volfinskiy, and Novyi Put on May 10 and 11.[17]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 217th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (98th VDV Division) are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces near Tetkino.[18]

Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported ground activity in northwesternmost Belgorod Oblast on May 11.

Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis (Russian objective: Create defensible buffer zones in northern Ukraine along the international border and approach to within tube artillery range of Sumy City)

Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported ground activity in northern Sumy Oblast on May 11.

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City)

Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Kharkiv City.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on May 10 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in northern Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City).[19]

Russian forces attacked northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk on May 10 and 11.[20]

Ukraine's Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Major Viktor Trehubov reported on May 11 that Russian forces recently increased the number of daily attacks in the Vovchansk direction from between one to two assaults to up to five.[21]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian "Anvar" Spetsnaz detachment (possibly referring to the BARS-25 "Anvar" volunteer detachment) are reportedly operating near Vovchansk.[22]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction on May 11 but did not make confirmed advances.

Russian forces attacked north of Kupyansk near Kindrashivka and Mala Shapkivka, northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka and Kamyanka, and southeast of Kupyansk near Hlushkivka on May 10 and 11.[23]

Ukraine's Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Major Viktor Trehubov reported on May 11 that Russian forces operating in the Kupyansk direction are receiving older reinforcements who are less capable of conducting assaults and experiencing logistics problems that are hindering offensive operations.[24]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Borova direction on May 11 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milbogger claimed on May 11 that Russian forces advanced southeast of Borova near Makiivka.[25]

Russian forces attacked northeast of Borova near Zahryzove, east of Borova near Kopanky, and southeast of Borova near Cherneshchyna on May 10 and 11.[26]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the "Black Raven" detachment (purportedly a volunteer unit) are reportedly operating near Nadiya (east of Borova).[27]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Lyman direction on May 11 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed on May 11 that Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Lyman near Hrekivka and east of Lyman in Torske.[28]

Russian forces attacked north of Lyman near Zelena Dolyna, Nove, Olhivka, Ridkodub, and Lypove and northeast of Lyman near Yampolivka, Kolodyazi, and Hrekivka on May 10 and 11.[29]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and possibly advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Siversk direction on May 11 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked northeast of Siversk near Hryhorivka and Bilohorivka on May 10 and May 11.[30]

The commander of a Ukrainian drone platoon operating in the Siversk direction stated that Russian forces have accumulated large quantities of motorcycles for assaults near Bilohorivka.[31] The commander also stated that Russian forces continue to use fiber-optic drones almost daily in the Siversk direction.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Chasiv Yar direction on May 11 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked near Chasiv Yar itself, northwest of Chasiv Yar toward Mayske, north of Chasiv Yar near Novomarkove, northeast of Chasiv Yar near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, southeast of Chasiv Yar toward Ozaryanivka, and south of Chasiv Yar toward Bila Hora and Predtechyne.[32]

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk direction.

Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage published on May 10 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Druzhba (northeast of Toretsk).[33]

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced north of Oleksandropil toward Zorya and near Romanivka (both southwest of Toretsk).[34]

Russian forces attacked near Toretsk; north of Toretsk near Dyliivka; northeast of Toretsk near Druzhba; west of Toretsk near Shcherbynivka, Romanivka, and Nova Poltavka; and southwest of Toretsk toward Zorya and near Stara Mykolaivka, Malynivka, Oleksandropil, and Vodyane Druhe on May 10 and 11.[35] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked in Toretsk and near Romanivka.[36]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st Combined Arms Army [CAA], formerly 1st Donetsk People's Republic Army Corps [DNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) and the “Tserber” group of the Russian 109th Separate Rifle Regiment (1st "Slovyansk" Motorized Rifle Brigade, 51st CAA)) are reportedly operating in central Toretsk.[37] Elements of the 238th Artillery Brigade (8th CAA, SMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Yablunivka (southwest of Toretsk).[38]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction on May 11 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked east of Pokrovsk near Myrne and Myrolyubivka; southeast of Pokrovsk near Lysivka and Dachenske; and southwest of Pokrovsk near Zvirove, Kotlyne, and Udachne on May 10 and 11.[39]

Ukraine’s Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Viktor Trehubov reported on May 11 that fighting remains intense in the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions.[40] A Ukrainian servicemember operating in the Pokrovsk direction stated on May 11 that Russian forces are currently concentrating on destroying infrastructure in the rear Ukrainian areas of this direction in order to facilitate future Russian advances.[41] The servicemember stated that Russian forces are trying to destroy Ukrainian reconnaissance and communications equipment in the area. A Russian milblogger claimed on May 11 that Russian forces are concentrating offensive operations near Hrodivka and attempting to advance from Myrolyubivka toward Moskovke (all east of Pokrovsk).[42]

Order of Battle: Elements of the "Vega" Spetsnaz Detachment (24th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, Russian General Staff's Main Intelligence Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly operating in the Pokrovsk direction.[43]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Novopavlivka direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on May 11 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced south and west of Novooleksandrivka (northeast of Novopavlivka) and likely seized the settlement during a roughly platoon-sized mechanized assault.[44]

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed on May 11 that Russian forces advanced near Novomykolaivka, west of Uspenivka, and in Novoserhiivka (northeast of Novopavlivka); northwest of Nadiivka (east of Novopavlivka); and in Horikhove (southeast of Novopavlivka).[45]

Russian forces attacked northeast of Novopavlivka near Novooleksandrivka and Novoserhiivka; east of Novopavlivka near Kotlyarivka and Preobrazhenka; and southeast of Novopavlivka near Troitske.[46]

Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn stated that Russian forces are attacking up to 30 times per day in the Novopavlivka direction and have assembled up to three mechanized regiments' worth of troops in this direction.[47]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kurakhove direction on May 11 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked west of Kurakhove near Kostyantynopil, Andriivka, Bahatyr, and Oleksiivka on May 10 and 11.[48]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Velyka Novosilka direction on May 11 but did not advance.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced near Vilne Pole (northwest of Velyka Novosilka).[49]

Russian forces continued assaults northwest of Velyka Novosilka near Vesele, Vilne Pole, Pryvilne, and Shevchenko; and west of Velyka Novosilka near Novosilka and Novopil on May 10 and 11.[50] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked toward Velyka Novosilka.[51]

A Ukrainian battalion operating in the Velyka Novosilka direction reported on May 10 that Ukrainian forces repelled a multi-directional company-sized Russian mechanized assault with three tanks, eight infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), and a large number of motorcycles in the area on May 9.[52]

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions, secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes, and advance within tube artillery range of Zaporizhzhia City)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on May 11 but did not advance.

Russian forces conducted ground attacks southeast of Orikhiv near Mala Tokmachka; south of Orikhiv towards Novodanylivka; and southwest of Orikhiv near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Shcherbaky, and Kamyanske on May 10 and 11.[53]

Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations in the Kherson direction on May 11 but did not advance.[54]

Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn stated on May 11 that Russian forces are trying to land small infantry groups on the islands in the Dnipro River Delta to conduct reconnaissance on Ukrainian positions.[55]

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)

Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of May 10 to 11. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 108 Shahed and decoy drones from the directions of Bryansk City; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; occupied Prymorsk, Zaporizhia Oblast; and occupied Hvardiiske, Crimea.[56] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 60 Shahed and other drones over the eastern, northern, southern, and central Ukraine; that 41 decoy drones were "lost in location,” meaning that Ukrainian forces lost sight of the drone and do not know what happened to it; and that Russian drone strikes affected Sumy Oblast.

Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks)

Nothing significant to report.

 

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.


[1] http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/76899 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-10-2025

[2] http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/76899

[3] https://t.me/tass_agency/314561 ; https://tass dot ru/politika/23911063

[4] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-23-2025 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/fact-sheet-istanbul-protocol-draft-document-april-15-2022

[5] https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-ukraine-peace-deal-2022-document-6e12e093 ; https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/15/world/europe/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-deal.html ; https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/a456d6dd8e27e830/e279a252-full.pdf

[6] http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/76899

[7] https://isw.pub/UkrWar043025 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar042825 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar122924 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-15-2025

[8] https://isw.pub/UkrWar051025 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-13-2025

[9] https://mid dot ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790803/?lang=ru

[10] https://isw.pub/UkrWar051025 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/314505 ; https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/10/world/video/russia-ceasefire-resistant-dmitry-peskov-digvid

[11] http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/76899

[12] https://isw.pub/UkrWar050425; https://isw.pub/UkrWar043025; https://isw.pub/UkrWar042525; https://isw.pub/UkrWar041825; https://isw.pub/UkrWar04172025;

[13] https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1921611690891940116 ; ; https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/14175https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1921469464358346850 ; https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/14175

[14] http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/76900 ; https://t.me/MID_Russia/58843 ; https://x.com/trpresidency/status/1921524395874390050

[15] https://x.com/trpresidency/status/1921524395874390050

[16] https://x.com/JanLipavsky/status/1921479272163672557 ; https://x.com/edgarsrinkevics/status/1921516658973163870 ; https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1921515458412392937

 ; https://x.com/bundeskanzler/status/1921524319286362491; https://x.com/bundeskanzler/status/1921524321945588090; https://x.com/bundeskanzler/status/1921524324487307666 ; https://suspilne dot media/1015273-evropa-hoce-buti-ucasniceu-potencijnih-peregovoriv-miz-ukrainou-ta-rosieu-mzs-francii/; https://www.radiofrance dot fr/franceinter/podcasts/questions-politiques/questions-politiques-du-dimanche-11-mai-2025-6758757 ; https://www.barrons.com/news/putin-s-proposed-ukraine-talks-a-first-step-but-not-enough-macron-a90f041c

[17] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/91488; https://t.me/dva_majors/70971; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/91525; https://t.me/wargonzo/26453; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/28427

[18] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/91509

[19] https://x.com/richardzai38580/status/1921240824332894710 ; https://t.me/DeepStateUA/21806 ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/164373

[20] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/2413 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/2413 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/2413

[21] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2025/05/11/masshtabnyh-proryviv-nemaye-ale-ataky-posylyly-viktor-tregubov-pro-sytuacziyu-bilya-vovchanska/

[22] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/91506

[23] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24108 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24106

[24] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2025/05/11/masshtabnyh-proryviv-nemaye-ale-ataky-posylyly-viktor-tregubov-pro-sytuacziyu-bilya-vovchanska/

[25] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/64169

[26] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24106 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24108

[27] https://t.me/notes_veterans/23294

[28] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/64169 ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/164373

[29]https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24136 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24108 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24106 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/64169

[30] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24136; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24108; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24106

[31] https://suspilne dot media/donbas/1015195-vijska-rf-gotuut-masovanij-sturm-na-motociklah-na-siverskomu-napramku-dani-81-oaebr/

[32] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24136; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24108; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24106

[33] https://x.com/AudaxonX/status/1921577442608587184; https://t.me/prizrak_lpr/40

[34] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/164367; https://t.me/yurasumy/22907

[35] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24136; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24108; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24106; https://t.me/yurasumy/22907; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/91514

[36] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/164367; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/91514; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/91532

[37] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/91514

[38] https://t.me/nm_dnr/13795

[39] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24136; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24108; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24106

[40] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2025/05/11/vorog-namagayetsya-perekydaty-syly-cherez-oskil-i-zherebecz-u-zsu-prokomentuvaly-sytuacziyu-na-fronti/

[41] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/05/11/vijskovi-rozpovily-pro-zminu-taktyky-protyvnyka-na-pokrovskomu-napryamku/

[42] https://t.me/yurasumy/22906

[43] https://t.me/sashakots/53619

[44] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/9118; https://t.me/fpvredrone/62; https://x.com/richardzai38580/status/1921474063609811318; https://t.me/skarlatop/4820

[45] https://t.me/motopatriot78/35679; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/164399; https://t.me/motopatriot78/35692; https://t.me/yurasumy/22905; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/164373; https://t.me/motopatriot78/35696

[46] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24136; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24108; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24106

[47] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2025/05/11/my-zamanyuyemo-voroga-u-vognevi-mishky-ta-znyshhuyemo-sotnyamy-syly-oborony-pivdnya/; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2025/05/11/vijskovi-rozpovily-pro-zminu-taktyky-protyvnyka-na-pokrovskomu-napryamku/

[48] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24136; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24108; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24106; https://t.me/yurasumy/22904

[49] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/164367

[50] https://t.me/mod_russia/52567 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24108 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24136 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24106 ;

[51] https://t.me/voin_dv/14875

[52] https://www.facebook.com/share/v/12JaCoAq1KX/ ; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/05/11/dijshly-do-liniyi-zitknennya-i-zlamalysya-nashi-dronari-vidbyly-potuzhnu-ataku-okupantiv-na-novopavlivskomu-napryamku/

[53] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24136 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24108 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24106 ; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/05/11/desantni-diyi-na-hersonshhyni-ta-shturmy-na-zaporizhzhi-u-zsu-rozpovily-pro-ataky-okupantiv-na-pivdni/

[54] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24136

[55] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/05/11/desantni-diyi-na-hersonshhyni-ta-shturmy-na-zaporizhzhi-u-zsu-rozpovily-pro-ataky-okupantiv-na-pivdni/

[56] https://t.me/kpszsu/34173

Saturday, May 10, 2025

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 10, 2025

Angelica Evans, Nicole Wolkov, Olivia Gibson, Anna Harvey, and Frederick W. Kagan with William Runkel

May 10, 2025, 3:45 pm ET 

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of Ukraine's offensive in Kursk Oblast.

Click here to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 10:45am ET on May 10. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the May 11 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

[Note: The Ukrainian General Staff's 2200 May 9 SITREP appears to cover battlefield activity from 0000 to 2200 on May 9. The Ukrainian General Staff's 0800 May 10 SITREP appears to cover battlefield activity from 0800 on May 0 to 0800 on May 10. The Ukrainian General Staff's 1600 May 10 SITREP appears to cover battlefield activity from 0000 to 1600 on May 10. Any reports of Russian ground activity in these SITREPs are implicit accusations that Russian forces violated Russia's unilateral Victory Day ceasefire.]

 

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov rejected another US-Ukrainian general ceasefire proposal on May 10 amid continued Russian demands that any future ceasefire include conditions that support Russia's long-term goal of gaining control of all of Ukraine and would allow Russia to resume offensive operations from a more advantageous position at a time of its choosing. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced following the Coalition of the Willing meeting in Kyiv on May 10 that he, European officials, and US President Donald Trump are proposing a general ceasefire at least 30 days long beginning on May 12.[1] Zelensky called on Russian officials to respond to the proposal and stated that Europe and the United States should impose additional sanctions on Russia's energy and banking sectors if Russia fails to agree to the ceasefire proposal. Peskov responded by claiming that Ukraine has not responded to Russian President Vladimir Putin's previous ceasefire proposals and that pressuring Russia is "useless."[2] Peskov claimed during an interview with ABC News published on May 10 that Putin supported the idea of a ceasefire but has "questions" about how a ceasefire will account for recent and possible future Russian advances in Ukraine, Ukrainian mobilization, and Western military assistance to Ukraine.[3] Peskov reiterated Putin's previous demands for the West to stop all military aid to Ukraine and force Ukraine to stop mobilizing and training servicemembers as a condition of a ceasefire. Putin criticized the initial March 13 US-Ukrainian general ceasefire proposal and insinuated that any ceasefire agreement should limit Ukraine's ability to mobilize and train new troops and receive military aid.[4]

Putin, Peskov, and other Russian officials have not yet offered any comparable concessions, such as stopping Russia's own force generation and defense industrial efforts, as part of a ceasefire agreement. Russian officials appear to be trying to define the conditions of any and all ceasefires in a way that facilitates further Russian battlefield gains in the short term and supports Russia's ability to attack Ukraine again in the future. Peskov also claimed that Ukraine is trying to leverage ceasefire proposals to "escape from negotiations," questioning Trump's stated objective of using a general ceasefire as a building block to precede peace negotiations.[5]

The UK and French-led Coalition of the Willing expressed support for the US-Ukrainian proposal of a general ceasefire of 30 days or more on May 10. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with the Coalition of the Willing during a semi-virtual summit on May 10, consisting of officials from Lithuania, Romania, Finland, Belgium, Bulgaria, Greece, Denmark, Estonia, Ireland, Italy, Canada, Latvia, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Norway, Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Sweden, Australia, Croatia, Iceland, Spain, Portugal, Turkey, the European Commission, and the European Council.[6] Zelensky welcomed French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Kyiv for the summit.[7] The Coalition of the Willing and NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte expressed support for the US-Ukrainian ceasefire proposal.[8] Macron stated that the coalition is working on a proposal to deploy a military contingent to Ukraine and that the coalition will hold a series of meetings in the coming weeks.[9] NBC News reported that Ukraine, the United States, and European partners formulated a term sheet with a list of conditions for Russia to consider.[10] The document, according to an unspecified Western official, contains 22 proposals, including the 30-day general ceasefire. Reuters reported on May 9 that a French diplomatic source stated that US and European partners are finalizing the 30-day ceasefire proposal and new sanction packages if Russia refuses the proposal.[11]

Iran will reportedly deliver short-range ballistic missile launchers to Russia for use in Ukraine. Reuters reported on May 10, citing two Western security officials and a regional official, that Iran is preparing to provide Russia with an unspecified number of Fath-360 launchers in the near future.[12] The officials stated that Russia likely intends to use these launchers with the short-range ballistic missiles that Iran provided to Russia in Fall 2024. A Ukrainian military source told The Times in September 2024 that Iran provided over 200 Fath-360 ballistic missiles to Russia.[13] US European Command (EUCOM) Commander and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) General Christopher Cavoli stated in April 2024 that Iran has provided over 400 short-range ballistic missiles and "hundreds of thousands" of artillery shells to Russia.[14] ISW has not observed reports of the Russian military launching Iranian-provided missiles against Ukraine, however. Iran began providing Russia with Shahed drones in Fall 2022, and Russia began producing and using its own Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 analogues (which Russia calls Geran-1 and Geran-2, respectively) with imported Iranian components and using Iranian production licenses as early as summer 2023.[15] Russia continues to deepen military cooperation with Iran, North Korea, and the People's Republic of China (PRC), and Russia's use of Iranian missiles against Ukraine would mark a significant intensification of Russian-Iranian relations.[16]

The United States Embassy in Kyiv issued a statement on May 9 warning of a significant Russian air strike against Ukraine over the next several days -- potentially involving Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missiles.[17] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported on May 10 that the Russian government plans to close the airspace over Volgograd and Saratov oblasts near the Kapustin Yar missile launch site in Astrakhan Oblast, where Russian forces reportedly store Oreshnik missiles, from 0600 May 12 to 1600 May 13 Moscow time.[18] Russian milbloggers asserted that the airspace closure is typical for combat and test launches of ballistic missiles and claimed that the closure suggests Russia might conduct an Oreshnik strike on Kyiv City.[19]

US and Western military support remains vital to Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russian aggression. Deputy Head of the Verkhovna Rada's Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, Yehor Chernev, told The New York Times (NYT) in a May 10 article that Ukraine is "running low" on long-range missiles, artillery, and ballistic missile defense systems.[20] An unspecified congressional official told the NYT that the United States recently approved Germany’s transfer of 125 long-range artillery rockets and 100 Patriot air defense missiles to Ukraine. A Western intelligence official stated that the Ukrainian military has improved its ability to "ration" Patriot air defense missiles by using cheaper interceptors to target smaller threats. Patriot air defense systems are essential to maintaining Ukraine's air defense umbrella, as Soviet-era and other Western-provided air defense systems are unable to intercept Russian ballistic missiles.

Key Takeaways:

  • Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov rejected another US-Ukrainian general ceasefire proposal on May 10 amid continued Russian demands that any future ceasefire include conditions that support Russia's long-term goal of gaining control of all of Ukraine and would allow Russia to resume offensive operations from a more advantageous position at a time of its choosing.
  • The UK and French-led Coalition of the Willing expressed support for the US-Ukrainian proposal of a general ceasefire of 30 days or more on May 10.
  • Iran will reportedly deliver short-range ballistic missile launchers to Russia for use in Ukraine.
  • The United States Embassy in Kyiv issued a statement on May 9 warning of a significant Russian air strike against Ukraine over the next several days -- potentially involving Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missiles.
  • US and Western military support remains vital to Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russian aggression.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast, and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

  • Alleged Ceasefire Violations
  • Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation
  • Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis
  • Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of three subordinate main efforts)
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and possibly advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
  • Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
  • Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
  • Significant Activity in Belarus

Alleged Ceasefire Violations

See text below for reported violations.

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast.

Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage published on May 10 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced south of Tetkino (southwest of Glushkovo).[21]

A Russian milblogger claimed on May 9 and 10 that Ukrainian forces attacked near Tetkino and Novyi Put (southwest of Glushkovo) in apparent violation of the Victory Day ceasefire.[22]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 217th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (98th VDV Division) are reportedly operating near Tetkino.[23]

Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported on ground activity in northwesternmost Belgorod Oblast on May 10.

Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis (Russian objective: Create defensible buffer zones in northern Ukraine along the international border and approach to within tube artillery range of Sumy City)

Russian forces continued assaults in northern Sumy Oblast on May 10 but did not advance.

The spokesperson of a Ukrainian border guard detachment operating in northern Sumy Oblast stated on May 10 that Russian forces continued attacks along the international border with Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts and that Russian forces have intensified guided glide bomb strikes over the last two days.[24]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian "Anvar" Spetsnaz detachment (possibly referring to the BARS-25 "Anvar" volunteer detachment) are reportedly operating near the border area of Sumy Oblast.[25]

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City)

Russian forces attacked northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk on May 9 and 10 but did not advance.[26]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade (58th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) and the "Anvar Spetsnaz" detachment (possibly referring to the BARS-25 "Anvar" volunteer detachment) are reportedly operating near Vovchansk.[27]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported ground activity in the Kupyansk direction on May 10.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Borova direction on May 10 but did not make any confirmed advances.

Russian forces attacked northeast of Borova near Zahryzove and Nova Kruhlyakivka on May 9 and 10.[28]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Borova direction on May 10 but did not make any confirmed advances.

Russian forces attacked north of Lyman near Ridkodub, Lypove, Zelena Dolyna, and Novyi Mir and northeast of Lyman near Yampolivka and Hrekivka on May 9 and 10.[29] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Lypove.[30]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and possibly advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Siversk direction on May 10 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked northeast of Siversk near Hryhorivka and Bilohorivka and east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske on May 9 and 10.[31]

Slovyansk City Military Administration Head Vadym Lyakh reported on May 10 that Russian forces have conducted up to 10 Shahed drone strikes against Slovyansk per night over the last week (between May 2 and May 9).[32] Lyakh reported that Russia is increasingly utilizing Shahed strikes against frontline settlements.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Chasiv Yar direction on May 10 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed on May 9 that Russian forces advanced into the center of Stupochky (south of Chasiv Yar) and along windbreaks in the direction of Dyliivka (south of Chasiv Yar).[33]

Russian forces attacked near Chasiv Yar itself; north of Chasiv Yar near Orikhovo-Vasylivka; southeast of Chasiv Yar near Kurdyumivka; and south of Chasiv Yar near Bila Hora, Predtechyne, and Oleksandro-Shultyne on May 9 and 10.[34] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces have been counterattacking near Stupochky constantly over the last week.[35]

A Russian milblogger claimed on May 10 that Russian forces are splitting their focus in the Chasiv Yar direction between Kostyantynivka (southwest of Chasiv Yar) and Kramatorsk (northwest of Chasiv Yar).[36] The milblogger claimed that Russian forces operating north of Chasiv Yar are trying to advance on Kramatorsk and Russian forces operating south of Chasiv Yar are trying to advance on Kostyantynivka.

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 217th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (98th VDV Division), the "Burevestnik" detachment (Russian Volunteer Corps), and the "Volga" Artillery Regiment (reportedly Russian Volunteer Corps) are reportedly operating near Chasiv Yar.[37] Elements of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division (3rd Army Corps [AC]) are reportedly operating toward Kostyantynivka.[38]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on May 5 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in western Toretsk.[39]

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed on May 10 that elements of the Russian 150th Motorized Rifle Division (8th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) recently advanced east of Romanivka (southwest of Toretsk) and are attacking the settlement.[40] The milblogger claimed that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups advanced toward Oleksandro-Kalynove and Yablunivka (west of Toretsk).

Russian forces attacked near Toretsk itself; north of Toretsk near Dachne and toward Dyliivka; east of Toretsk near Druzhba; southeast of Toretsk near Oleksandropil; southwest of Toretsk near Nova Poltavka, Hnativka, Yelyzavetivka, and Stara Mykolaivka, between Stara Mykolaivka and Sukha Balka, and toward Zorya and Malynivka; and west of Toretsk near Shcherbynivka on May 9 and 10.[41] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on May 10 that Ukrainian forces counterattacked southwest of Toretsk near Valentynivka.[42] Russian milbloggers claimed on May 10 that Ukrainian forces also counterattacked in Toretsk.[43]

Ukrainian Luhansk Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Dmytro Zaporozhets stated on May 10 that Russian forces recently intensified air strikes against Toretsk and that Russian forces continue to accumulate personnel in the Toretsk direction.[44]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on May 9 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kotlyne (southwest of Pokrovsk).[45] Geolocated footage published on May 10 indicates that Russian forces advanced along Tsentralna Street in southeastern Novoserhiivka (southwest of Pokrovsk).[46]

Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed on May 9 that Russian forces advanced further south near Novoserhiivka than geolocated footage indicated.[47]

Russian forces attacked east of Pokrovsk near Myrne, Promin, and Myrolyubivka; southeast of Pokrovsk near Dachenske, Hrodivka, Lysivka, and Novotoretske; and southwest of Pokrovsk near Zvirove, Kotlyne, and Udachne on May 9 and 10.[48] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Kotlyarivka and Myrolyubivka.[49]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Novopavlivka direction on May 10 but did not make confirmed advances.

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed on May 9 and 10 that Russian forces advanced in the fields southwest of Kotlyarivka (east of Novopavlivka) and near Novooleksandrivka (northeast of Novopavlivka) and Nadiivka (east of Novopavlivka).[50]

Russian forces attacked northeast of Novopavlivka near Novooleksandrivka; east of Novopavlivka near Kotlyarivka, Preobrazhenka, and Nadiivka; and southeast of Novopavlivka near Troitske, Bohdanivka, and Horikhove on May 9 and 10.[51] The Russian (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Novoolenivka and Novoserhiivka.[52]

Ukraine’s Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Viktor Trehubov rported that Russian forces are attacking on motorcycles and in civilian cars with first-person view (FPV) drone support.[53]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Kurakhove direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on May 10 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in the eastern outskirts of Oleksiivka (west of Kurakhove) and along the H-15 Kurakhove-Zaporizhzhia City highway in the fields south of Bahatyr (southwest of Kurakhove).[54]

Russian forces attacked west of Kurakhove near Kostyantynopil and Andriivka and southwest of Kurakhove near Bahatyr and Odradne on May 9 and 10.[55] The Russian (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Bahatyr and Oleksiivka.[56]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Velyka Novosilka direction on May 10 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked northwest of Velyka Novosilka near Vesele, Vilne Pole, Pryvilne, and Shevchenko and southwest of Velyka Novosilka near Novosilka, Novopil, Rivnopil, and toward Zelene Pole on May 8 and 9.[57] The Russian (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Zelene Pole and Novopil.[58]

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions, secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes, and advance within tube artillery range of Zaporizhzhia City)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on May 10 but did not advance.

Russian forces conducted ground attacks south of Orikhiv towards Novodanylivka and southwest of Orikhiv near Stepove and Shcherbaky on May 9 and 10.[59]

Order of Battle: Elements of the BARS-3 "Rodina" Battalion (Russian Combat Army Reserve) are reportedly operating in the Orikhiv direction.[60]

Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations in the Kherson direction on May 10 but did not advance.[61]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian BARS-33 Detachment (Russian Combat Army Reserve) are reportedly operating in Kherson Oblast.[62]

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)

Russian forces did not conduct long-range drone or missile strikes against Ukraine on the evening of May 9 to 10 or during the day on May 10.

Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks)

Nothing significant to report.

 

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.


[1] https://www.president.gov dot ua/news/z-12-travnya-maye-rozpochatisya-povne-j-bezumovne-pripinenny-97701

[2] https://www.gazeta dot ru/politics/news/2025/05/10/25748894.shtml ; https://t.me/tass_agency/314486

[3] https://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/us-european-weapons-ukraine-stop-ceasefire-putin-spokesperson-121659250 ; https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/kremlin-insists-arm-deliveries-ukraine-stop-agreeing-ceasefire/story?id=121656242

[4] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-13-2025

[5] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-9-2025 ; https://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/us-european-weapons-ukraine-stop-ceasefire-putin-spokesperson-121659250 ; https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/kremlin-insists-arm-deliveries-ukraine-stop-agreeing-ceasefire/story?id=121656242

[6] https://www.president.gov dot ua/news/ukrayina-gotova-shvidko-j-konstruktivno-ruhatisya-do-miru-vi-97689

[7] https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1921183388947325373 ; https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/14165

[8] https://x.com/SecGenNATO/status/1921149708698788142 ; https://suspilne dot media/1014815-gensek-nato-pidtrimue-30-denne-bezumovne-pripinenna-vognu-v-ukraini/ ; https://www.president.gov dot ua/news/z-12-travnya-maye-rozpochatisya-povne-j-bezumovne-pripinenny-97701

[9] https://newsukraine.rbc dot ua/news/coalition-of-the-willing-drafting-proposal-1746882890.html ; https://suspilne dot media/1014827-makron-anonsuvav-novi-zustrici-koalicii-ohocih-pro-so-tam-govoritimut-miznarodni-partneri/

[10] https://www.nbcnews.com/world/russia/russia-ukraine-war-trump-envoy-witkoff-interpreter-kremlin-rcna205878

[11] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-europeans-finalising-30-day-ukraine-russia-ceasefire-proposal-diplomatic-2025-05-09/

[12] https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-send-russia-launchers-short-range-missiles-sources-say-2025-05-09/

[13] https://www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/article/ballistic-clmpm3d7m

[14] https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/general_cavoli_opening_statements.pdf

[15] https://isw.pub/UkrWar042225 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/The%20Russia-Iran%20Coalition%20Deepens%20013025.pdf

[16] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-28-2025 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar042225 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar041625 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar041225 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar032125

[17] https://ua.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-kyiv-ukraine-may-9-2025/

[18] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/91444 ; https://strana dot today/news/484756-rf-zakryvaet-vozdushnoe-prostranstvo-nad-polihonom-hde-ispytyvajut-oreshnik.html ; https://www.rbc dot ua/rus/news/rosiya-zakrivae-povitryaniy-prostir-kapustinim-1746857988.html?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=post ; https://t.me/astrapress/80888

[19] https://t.me/rusich_army/23323 ; https://t.me/yurasumy/22874

[20] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/10/world/europe/eu-ukraine-weapons.html

[21] https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/28078; https://t.me/OSHP_225/4988

[22] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/91428 ; https://t.me/rusich_army/23312 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/91473 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/26431 ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/164260

[23] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/91433

[24] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xws0LfMnT3w&t=2805s; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2025/05/10/peremyrya-na-sumskomu-napryamku-vorog-syple-kabamy-a-nashi-zbyvayut-molniyi-zi-strileczkoyi-zbroyi/

[25] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/164193

[26] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FdgiQoYCZqkBk92AfYpURbvS7EuwCkzLyp4wRys7tSJ6p8TLFL5oLRrF6ggBMfMxl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24079 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24076

[27] ttps://t.me/RVvoenkor/91480

[28] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24079 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24076

[29] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FdgiQoYCZqkBk92AfYpURbvS7EuwCkzLyp4wRys7tSJ6p8TLFL5oLRrF6ggBMfMxl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24079 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24076

[30] https://t.me/mod_russia/52543

[31] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FdgiQoYCZqkBk92AfYpURbvS7EuwCkzLyp4wRys7tSJ6p8TLFL5oLRrF6ggBMfMxl; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24079; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24076

[32] https://suspilne dot media/1014531-posolstvo-ssa-poperedilo-so-rosia-gotue-masstabnu-povitranu-ataku-zelenskij-uviv-sankcii-proti-rf-1172-den-vijni/?anchor=live_1746867046&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps

[33] https://t.me/t3mny/2272

[34] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FdgiQoYCZqkBk92AfYpURbvS7EuwCkzLyp4wRys7tSJ6p8TLFL5oLRrF6ggBMfMxl; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24079; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24076

[35] https://t.me/t3mny/2272

[36] https://t.me/yurasumy/22885

[37] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/91419; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/164172

[38] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/164234

[39] https://x.com/AudaxonX/status/1921110347345285197; https://www.instagram.com/reel/DJRKHT4sL_1/

[40] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/64143

[41] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FdgiQoYCZqkBk92AfYpURbvS7EuwCkzLyp4wRys7tSJ6p8TLFL5oLRrF6ggBMfMxl; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24079; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24076; https://t.me/t3mny/2272; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/64143

[42] https://t.me/mod_russia/52543

[43] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/91430; https://t.me/wargonzo/26431

[44] https://suspilne dot media/1014531-posolstvo-ssa-poperedilo-so-rosia-gotue-masstabnu-povitranu-ataku-zelenskij-uviv-sankcii-proti-rf-1172-den-vijni/?anchor=live_1746863775&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps

[45] https://x.com/Map_Hargoo/status/1921097153646133470; https://t.me/ewoks152bbs/203

[46] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/9115 ; https://t.me/gostrikartuzy/950

[47] https://t.me/z_arhiv/31497

[48] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FdgiQoYCZqkBk92AfYpURbvS7EuwCkzLyp4wRys7tSJ6p8TLFL5oLRrF6ggBMfMxl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24079 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24076 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/26431 ; https://t.me/don_partizan/8226

[49] https://t.me/mod_russia/52543

[50] https://t.me/z_arhiv/31497 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/64129

[51] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FdgiQoYCZqkBk92AfYpURbvS7EuwCkzLyp4wRys7tSJ6p8TLFL5oLRrF6ggBMfMxl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24079 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24076

[52] https://t.me/mod_russia/52543

[53] https://suspilne dot media/1014531-posolstvo-ssa-poperedilo-so-rosia-gotue-masstabnu-povitranu-ataku-zelenskij-uviv-sankcii-proti-rf-1172-den-vijni/?anchor=live_1746862814&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps

[54] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/9110 ; https://t.me/dumky_frontovyka/1944

[55] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FdgiQoYCZqkBk92AfYpURbvS7EuwCkzLyp4wRys7tSJ6p8TLFL5oLRrF6ggBMfMxl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24079 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24076

[56] https://t.me/mod_russia/52543

[57] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FdgiQoYCZqkBk92AfYpURbvS7EuwCkzLyp4wRys7tSJ6p8TLFL5oLRrF6ggBMfMxl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24079 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24076 ; https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/12438

[58] https://t.me/mod_russia/52543

[59]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FdgiQoYCZqkBk92AfYpURbvS7EuwCkzLyp4wRys7tSJ6p8TLFL5oLRrF6ggBMfMxl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24079 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24076

[60] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/164194

[61] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0FdgiQoYCZqkBk92AfYpURbvS7EuwCkzLyp4wRys7tSJ6p8TLFL5oLRrF6ggBMfMxl ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24079 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/24076

[62] https://t.me/mod_russia/52362