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Friday, February 14, 2025

Iran Update, February 14, 2025

Annika Ganzeveld, Ria Reddy, Kelly Campa, Johanna Moore, Carolyn Moorman, Ben Rezaei, Alexandra Braverman, Avery Borens, and Brian Carter

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations, and here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of the ongoing opposition offensive in Syria. These maps are updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

 

The Iraqi Christian Alliance, which is comprised of eight political parties, submitted a series of demands to the Iraqi parliament and Federal Supreme Court on February 14.[1] The parties called on the Iraqi federal government to remove “armed militias” from the Ninewa Plains and to transfer responsibility for security of the area to local Christians and Yazidis.[2] The Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) 30th and 50th brigades operate in the Ninewa Plains.[3] The PMF 30th Brigade is commanded by Sabah Salem al Shabaki and is affiliated with the Iranian-backed Badr Organization.[4] The brigade operates in Bartella, which is a historically Assyrian town that the 30th brigade took over after it liberated the town from ISIS.[5] The PMF 50th Brigade is affiliated with the Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Asaib Ahl al Haq.[6] The United States sanctioned the former PMF 30th and 50th brigade commanders in July 2019 for human rights abuses.[7]

The Christian Alliance also called on the Iraqi federal government to implement Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution, which calls for determining the status of disputed territories between the Iraqi federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).[8] The implementation of Article 140 is a long-standing Kurdish and Christian demand, and Kurdish parties have previously raised the issue of Article 140 during periods of heightened tensions between the Iraqi federal government and the KRG. The head of the Christian Alliance, Ano Jawhar Abdoka, serves as the KRG transport and communications minister.[9] Abdoka previously worked in the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) district committee in Ankawa, Erbil.[10] The KDP likely encouraged the Christian Alliance to raise the issue of Article 140 in its list of demands.

The Christian Alliance finally called for revising voting mechanisms for Ninewa Provincial Council elections and for legislating a personal status law for members of non-Muslim minority communities.[11] Jawhar accused armed groups of “hijacking” Christians’ political representation in the Iraqi federal government by “imposing themselves on the political scene” in the Ninewa Plains.[12]

Iran received a large shipment of a chemical precursor for solid missile propellant from China on February 13.[13] Western media reported on January 22 that two Iranian cargo vessels, Golbon and Jairan, carrying over 1100 tons of sodium perchlorate, will travel from China to Iran over the “next few weeks.”[14] The Golbon arrived at Bandar Abbas port, Hormozgan Province, on February 13 with “most” of the total shipment, according to two unspecified European intelligence sources.[15] The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Procurement Department of the Self Sufficiency Jihad Organization (SSJO) reportedly received the shipment. The SSJO is partially responsible for Iran's ballistic missile research and development and was sanctioned by the United States in 2017 for contributing to the proliferation and delivery of weapons of mass destruction.[16]

One thousand one hundred tons of sodium perchlorate can be converted to slightly over 1000 tons of ammonium perchlorate, which is the main component for solid propellant for missiles. Unspecified Western officials estimated that 1000 tons of ammonium perchlorate can—if converted to solid fuel propellant—fuel up to 260 mid-range Iranian ballistic missiles.[17] These officials may be referring to medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM), which have a range of between 1,000km and 3,000km. Iran used MRBMs to target Israel in April and October 2024. That amount of ammonium perchlorate can also produce larger quantities of other types of smaller munitions that require less solid fuel, including shorter-range ballistic missiles. It is unclear when the second vessel, Jairan, will depart from China.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director Raphael Grossi stated that Iran will likely have 250kg of uranium enriched up to 60% by the next IAEA report in March 2025. This marks a significant increase in Iran’s stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium since the IAEA’s last report in November 2024.[18] The IAEA reported in November 2024 that Iran had 182.3 kg of enriched uranium, up to 60 percent.[19] 250 kg of enriched uranium up to 60 percent is equivalent to 6 significant quantities, marking over a 1.5 increase in significant quantities since the IAEA's last report.[20] The IAEA defines a significant quantity as the “approximate amount of nuclear material for which the possibility of manufacturing a nuclear explosive device cannot be excluded.”[21] Grossi also told Reuters that the IAEA would likely delay issuing a comprehensive report on Iran’s nuclear activities beyond March, when the IAEA initially intended to release the report.[22]

The IAEA passed an E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) censure resolution against Iran in November 2024 that requires the IAEA to produce a "comprehensive report" on Iranian nuclear activities by spring 2025.[23] CTP-ISW previously assessed that the report would almost certainly confirm Iranian noncompliance with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and lay the foundation for further action against Iran’s nuclear program.[24]

Iranian efforts to compel Lebanon to allow Iranian aircraft transporting funds for Hezbollah to land in Beirut are tantamount to an Iranian effort to compel Lebanon to violate the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. Iran blocked Lebanese planes in Tehran from returning stranded Lebanese citizens, likely to compel Lebanon to resume Mahan Air flights to Beirut's Rafic Hariri International Airport.[25] Lebanese authorities prevented a Mahan Air flight from landing at Rafic Hariri International Airport on February 13.[26] Iran’s demand for Lebanon to allow Mahan Air flights to land violates the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire because these flights reportedly deliver cash to Hezbollah.[27] The ceasefire requires the Lebanese government to prevent these transfers. Rafic Hariri International Airport security searched a Mahan Air flight in early January over suspicions it transferred funds to Hezbollah.[28]

Key Takeaways:

  • Iraq: The Iraqi Christian Alliance, which is comprised of eight political parties, submitted a series of demands to the Iraqi parliament and Federal Supreme Court on February 14. The demands included the removal of armed militias from the Ninewa Plains and determining the status of disputed territories between Baghdad and Erbil.
  • Iranian Ballistic Missiles: Iran received a large shipment of a chemical precursor for solid missile propellant from China on February 13. Western officials estimated that this shipment could be used to fuel up to 260 mid-range ballistic missiles.
  • Iranian Nuclear Program: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director Raphael Grossi stated that Iran will likely have 250kg of uranium enriched up to 60% by the next IAEA report in March 2025. This marks a significant increase in Iran’s stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium since the IAEA’s last report in November 2024.
  • Iranian Influence in Lebanon: Iranian efforts to compel Lebanon to allow Iranian aircraft transporting funds for Hezbollah to land in Beirut are tantamount to an Iranian effort to compel Lebanon to violate the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire.

Syria

Co-founder and senior PKK leader Cemil Bayik said that the PKK would not disarm without imprisoned Kurdistan Workers‘ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan’s release from prison.[29] Turkey will reportedly release Ocalan after he makes a public call on the PKK to lay down its arms.[30] Bayik, who is based in the Qandil Mountains in Iraq, told PKK-affiliated media that he received a letter from Ocalan and that Ocalan seeks to ”take the Kurdish issue out of the realm of war and into the realm of democratization.”[31] Bayik suggested that the PKK would refuse to disarm without Ocalan’s release, however.[32] PKK Executive Committee member Murat Karayilan also seemed to add additional conditions over the movement’s disarmament, noting that the PKK must hold a conference to discuss disarmament before Ocalan can call on the PKK to disarm.[33] Bayik and Karayilan’s statements directly conflict with Turkey’s theory that the PKK would heed Ocalan’s expected call for disarmament and lay down their arms.[34]

Kurdistan Regional Government Prime Minister Masrour Barzani called on the Syrian interim government to negotiate with all Kurdish groups—not just the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—during an interview with Saudi media on February 14.[35] Barzani stated that the SDF represents “a portion,” but not all, Kurds in Syria. Barzani’s statement is consistent with the Kurdish Democratic Party’s (KDP) efforts to pressure the SDF to work with minority Kurdish parties, particularly the Kurdish National Council (KNC).[36] The KNC is dominated by the Syrian wing of the KDP.[37]

Turkey continued to target the SDF along the eastern banks of the Euphrates River on February 14. Turkish aircraft struck several SDF positions near Zor Maghar and Shuyukh Tahtani, approximately 2.3 kilometers west of Jarabulus, on February 14.[38] Turkish aircraft also struck SDF positions near the Shuyoukh hills, approximately 6 kilometers south of Jarabulus.[39]

The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) continued to engage the SDF near the Tishreen Dam on February 13.[40] The SNA also shelled SDF positions near the Dam, likely to isolate SDF units operating at the bridgehead.[41]  

Turkey and the SNA continued to target SDF positions along the Peace Spring frontlines on February 14. Anti-SDF media claimed that the SNA conducted an artillery strike on an SDF position in Abu Rasin.[42] Anti-SDF media also reported that the SNA and SDF exchanged artillery fire north of Raqqa near the M4 highway.[43]

The Turkish Defense Ministry announced on February 14 that it killed seven Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) members in Iraq and Syria.[44] The ministry said that it killed three PKK members near Jabal Haft Tanin in Iraqi Kurdistan and four PKK members in Peace Spring territory in northern Syria.[45] Iraqi media separately reported that Turkey conducted airstrikes targeting several villages near Amedi District, Dohuk Province, on February 14.[46] The Turkish Defense Ministry said on February 13 that it had killed 56 PKK members in northern Syria and Iraq over the past week.[47]

US Ambassador and ChargĂ© d ’Affaires ad interim Dorothy Shea announced on February 12 during a UN Security Council Briefing on the political and humanitarian Situations in Syria that the United States intends to reduce its aid contribution to refugee camps in Syria.[48] She stated that “the camps cannot remain a direct US financial responsibility” and that US assistance in managing and securing al Hol and Roj camps “cannot last forever.” Shea urged countries to “expeditiously” repatriate displaced and detained nationals who remain in the region. Shea’s calls to repatriate displaced and detained nationals are consistent with the Biden administration and the first Trump administration’s policy. The United States issued temporary waivers after US aid freezes for some programs responsible for securing al Hol camp on January 31, but other programs responsible for internal camp management may be forced to suspend operations, according to the New York Times.[49] Seven aid officials, local authorities, and diplomats cited by Reuters on February 14 reported that funding freezes have disrupted aid distribution and other services.[50] Two senior humanitarian sources warned that changes to funding had prompted camp officials to develop contingency plans for the spread of disease, riots, and IS breakout attempts. A Roj camp resident cited by Reuters claimed that mass riots and breakout attempts are expected if funding for internal camp management is not reinstated. Camp security will very likely struggle to address internal camp unrest even if security forces continue to receive funding.

A new Sunni resistance group claimed two attacks in Hama Province on February 1.[51] Saraya Ansar al Sunnah claimed its fighters attacked Arza and killed 12 Alawites.[52] Saraya Ansar al Sunnah claimed its fighters attacked Tell Dahab and killed five former Assad regime security members.[53] Saraya Ansar al Sunnah stated that it would continue its attacks until the Alawites and Shia were “eliminated” or displaced from the region.[54] The group used sectarian, derogatory terms for Alawites and Shia that are also used by Salafi-jihadi groups like al Qaeda and the Islamic State.[55] Saraya Ansar al Sunnah rejected the interim government’s efforts to pardon former Assad regime members.[56] Saraya Ansar al Sunnah stated that the group is decentralized with no formal headquarters.[57] It is not clear who formed Saraya Ansar al Sunnah. The group appears to be a Salafi-jihadi organization, but it is not clear if it formed from Islamic State or al Qaeda affiliate Hurras al Din splinters. Hurras al Din officially dissolved on January 29.[58]

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on February 14.[59] Rubio called for close cooperation to support a stable and unified Syria that is not a threat to the United States, Turkey, or the region.[60]

Russia delivered local Syrian currency to the Syrian central bank on February 14.[61] An unspecified source at the bank reported that Russia transferred 300 billion Syrian pounds as a part of a contract signed between the former Assad regime and Russia.[62] Russia will reportedly send a second payment later. Syrian officials told a Reuters journalist that Russia had already printed the money and prepared it to ship to Syria when the Assad regime collapsed.[63] The Syrian interim government confirmed the shipment but did not clarify its size and quantity.[64] Interim Syrian President Ahmed al Shara and Russian President Vladimir Putin may have discussed the shipments during their phone call on February 12.[65]

Iraqi Foreign Affairs Minister Fuad Hussein attended the international conference on Syria in Paris on February 14.[66] Hussein called on the Syrian interim government to ensure a peaceful transfer of power and hold a national dialogue with “all components” of Syrian society. Hussein stated that Iraq will invite Syrian Interim President Ahmed al Shara to the Arab Summit in Baghdad in May 2025.[67] An unspecified Iraqi government source told Iraqi media on February 14 that Syrian Interim Foreign Affairs Minister Asaad al Shaibani will visit Iraq next week.[68]

The Syrian interim government continued to take steps to consolidate and reform the state security sector on February 14. The Syrian Defense Ministry announced a ban on the transfer and sale of military assets, including weapons, ammunition, equipment, and technical equipment.[69] This ban would be consistent with the Defense Ministry’s efforts to dissolve all armed groups in Syria into the Syrian defense apparatus and keep weapons in state hands. The Syrian Interior Ministry announced the Public Security forces will be known as the “Internal Security Force.”[70] Public Security forces have deployed in Syrian interim government-controlled territory across Syria to maintain security and arrest suspected criminals or regime remnants since the fall of the regime.[71]

Iraq

Axis of Resistance objectives:

  • Strengthen Iranian and Axis of Resistance influence over the Iraqi state and society
  • Harden the Iraqi government against internal dissent

The Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) 30th Brigade conducted a “large-scale security operation” along the Iraq-Syria border on February 14.[72] The PMF 30th Brigade is commanded by Sabah Salem al Shabaki and affiliated with the Iranian-backed Badr Organization.[73] The PMF 30th Brigade is based in Bartella, east of Mosul.[74]

The Palestinian Territories and Lebanon

Axis of Resistance objectives:

  • Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and the public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
  • Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip
  • Rebuild and reestablish Hezbollah in southern Lebanon
  • Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel

The Gaza Strip

Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan said on February 14 that negotiations for the second phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire-hostage agreement will begin on February 17 if Israel does not delay the delivery of humanitarian aid and heavy equipment to the Gaza Strip.[75] The Israeli government has not yet confirmed that it will send a delegation to the negotiations. Israel and Hamas reached an agreement on February 13, under which the ceasefire’s first phase will continue. Hamas had previously jeopardized the ceasefire by refusing to release more Israeli hostages.[76] Senior Hamas political official Taher al Nono claimed that the Israeli government did not authorize its delegation to negotiate the second phase of the ceasefire during negotiations from February 8 to 9.[77] Hamas had announced it would stop releasing hostages after these negotiations.[78]

Hamas will release three Israeli hostages, and Israel will release 369 Palestinian prisoners on February 15.[79]

Lebanon


Israeli Army Radio reported on February 14 that Israel intends to extend the deployment of Israeli forces at five unspecified locations in southern Lebanon after the February 18 withdrawal date.[80]

Ceasefire Implementation Mechanism Chairman US Army Major General Jasper Jeffers said on February 14 that he is confident that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) will control “all population centers in the southern Litani area” by February 18.[81] The Ceasefire Implementation Mechanism met in Naqoura, Lebanon, on February 14.

Lebanese Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji and French Foreign Minister Jean-NoĂ«l Barrot called for a complete Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdrawal from Lebanon by the February 18 deadline.[82] Diplomatic sources told Saudi outlet al Arabiya that the United States rejected a French proposal to replace Israeli forces in southern Lebanon with United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) troops.[83]

Iranian Decision-Making, Internal Dynamics, and Foreign Policy

Iranian students at the University of Tehran protested on February 14 after two unknown individuals killed a student in a robbery near campus.[84] Students clashed with security forces as protests continued into the night.[85] Students called for accountability for the lack of safety and heavy security presence on campus.[86] Iranian authorities reportedly deployed additional security and detained several students.[87] The protest started over a local incident but could increase anti-regime sentiment and raise concerns about Iran’s internal stability.

An informed Iranian source reported on February 13 that Iranian security forces installed advanced Chinese-made Hikvision cameras under pedestrian bridges in Tehran. These cameras enable simultaneous license plate and facial recognition.[88] The network reportedly spans key areas in central Tehran. Iranian officials increasingly fear potential unrest as the Iranian currency continues to lose value daily, and energy shortages worsen public frustration.[89] The United States banned Hikvision in 2022 over national security concerns.[90]

Unspecified fighters shot at Iranian border guards in western Iran’s Baneh, Kurdistan Province, on February 14 during a patrol near the border.[91] Three guards reportedly sustained injuries, and medical teams transferred them to a local hospital.

 

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events.

CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.


[1] https://shafaq dot com/ar/%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%A9/%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8-%D8%A8%D8%AE%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%A9-%D8%AD%D9%82%D9%88%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%AD%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%B7%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D8%B6%D8%A7-%D9%88%D9%85%D9%81%D9%88%D8%B6%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%88%D8%AB%D9%8A%D9%82%D8%A9

[2] https://www.rudaw dot net/english/middleeast/iraq/130220254

[3] https://www.kurdistan24 dot net/ar/story/824823/%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%87%D8%B1-%D9%8A%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8-%D8%A8%D8%BA%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D8%B3%D8%AD%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%B4%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%A9-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%B3%D9%87%D9%84-%D9%86%D9%8A%D9%86%D9%88%D9%89

[4] https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/profile-hashd-al-shabak-30th-pmf-brigade ;

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/profile-badr-organization

[5] https://50f3ad00-5b28-4016-898f-6130d301c97a.filesusr.com/ugd/6ae567_98f8f8912baa40949a18a3a0b717eaea.pdf

[6] https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/profile-kataib-babiliyoun-50th-pmf-brigade

[7] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm735

[8] https://amwaj.media/article/deep-dive-article-140-and-the-future-of-iraq-s-turkmens ;

https://shafaq dot com/ar/%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%A9/%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8-%D8%A8%D8%AE%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%A9-%D8%AD%D9%82%D9%88%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%AD%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%B7%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D8%B6%D8%A7-%D9%88%D9%85%D9%81%D9%88%D8%B6%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%88%D8%AB%D9%8A%D9%82%D8%A9

[9] https://www.kurdistan24 dot net/ar/story/824823/%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%87%D8%B1-%D9%8A%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8-%D8%A8%D8%BA%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D8%B3%D8%AD%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%B4%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%A9-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%B3%D9%87%D9%84-%D9%86%D9%8A%D9%86%D9%88%D9%89

[10] https://x.com/AnoAbdoka/status/767808041748160513 ;

https://x.com/AnoAbdoka/status/1030002208132280320 ;

https://english.ankawa dot com/interview-ano-abdoka-political-leader-in-ankawa/#google_vignette

[11] https://baghdadtoday dot news/267881-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%AD%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8-%D8%A8%D9%88%D9%82%D9%81-%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%84%D9%85%D9%83%D9%88%D9%86-(%D9%88%D8%AB%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%82).html

[12] https://www.kurdistan24 dot net/ar/story/824823/%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%87%D8%B1-%D9%8A%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8-%D8%A8%D8%BA%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D8%B3%D8%AD%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%B4%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%A9-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%B3%D9%87%D9%84-%D9%86%D9%8A%D9%86%D9%88%D9%89

[13] https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/13/middleeast/iran-is-rearming-its-missile-program-and-a-ship-of-supplies-just-arrived-from-china-western-sources-say/index.html

[14] https://www.ft.com/content/f0bc9fcc-11b3-4615-bd24-163f8938f2a5

[15] https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/13/middleeast/iran-is-rearming-its-missile-program-and-a-ship-of-supplies-just-arrived-from-china-western-sources-say/index.html

[16] https://2017-2021.state.gov/u-s-announces-new-iran-related-sanctions/

[17] https://www.ft.com/content/f0bc9fcc-11b3-4615-bd24-163f8938f2a5

[18] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iaea-chief-sees-time-running-out-revive-iran-nuclear-deal-2025-02-14/ ; https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/24/11/gov2024-61.pdf

[19] https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/24/11/gov2024-61.pdf

[20] https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/entering-uncharted-waters-irans-60-percent-highly-enriched-uranium#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20International%20Atomic,nuclear%20explosive%20cannot%20be%20excluded.%E2%80%9D

[21] https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/analysis-of-iaea-iran-verification-and-monitoring-report-august-2024

[22] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iaea-chief-sees-time-running-out-revive-iran-nuclear-deal-2025-02-14/

[23] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-nuclear-watchdogs-35-nation-board-passes-resolution-against-iran-2024-11-21/ ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-november-21-2024#_edne536f6494c1df074a9a517acafae07d61

[24] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-november-21-2024#_edne536f6494c1df074a9a517acafae07d61

[25] https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/iran-bars-lebanese-planes-taking-stranded-citizens-home-after-israeli-threat-2025-02-14/ ;

https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-february-13-2025

[26] https://www.jpost dot com/breaking-news/article-842062

[27] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1098  ;

https://www.timesofisrael dot com/full-text-the-israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-deal/

[28] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-january-3-2025

[29] https://www.rudaw dot net/english/middleeast/turkey/14022025

[30] https://x.com/gonultol/status/1882126703339991391

[31] https://www.rudaw dot net/english/middleeast/turkey/14022025 ; https://jamestown.org/program/mount-qandil-a-safe-haven-for-kurdish-militants-part-2; https://www.vice.com/en/article/turkeys-most-wanted-vice-news-meets-pkk-leader-cemil-bayik/

[32] https://serbestiyet dot com/haberler/cemil-bayik-apodan-bize-bir-mektup-ulasti-196875/;

[33] https://www.rudawarabia dot net/arabic/kurdistan/07022025

[34] https://isw.pub/IranUpdate012825

[35] https://www.kurdistan24 dot net/en/story/824825/pm-masrour-barzani-discusses-sdf-coalition-presence-refutes-accusations-against-kurdistan-region

[36] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-23-2025

[37] https://knc-geneva dot ezks.org/?page_id=49&lang=en

[38] https://t.me/HalabTodayTV/120033  ; https://t.me/AbomosaabSharkea/135874

[39] https://x.com/SOHEB2019/status/1890331788167246039 ; https://t.me/AbomosaabSharkea/135852

[40] https://t.me/AbomosaabSharkea/135845

[41] https://t.me/AbomosaabSharkea/135845 ; https://t.me/AbomosaabSharkea/135849

[42] https://x.com/SOHEB2019/status/1890327815150592319

[43] https://x.com/SOHEB2019/status/1890465275591430354https://x.com/SOHEB2019/status/1890401672494522756

[44] https://shafaq dot com/ar/%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A-%D9%88%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%86-%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84-7-%D8%B9%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82-%D9%88%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7-2

[45] https://shafaq dot com/ar/%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A-%D9%88%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%86-%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84-7-%D8%B9%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82-%D9%88%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7-2

[46] https://www.ninanews dot com/Website/News/Details?key=1186651

[47] https://x.com/tcsavunma/status/1889965267968765987

[48] https://usun.usmission.gov/remarks-by-ambassador-shea-charge-daffaires-ad-interim-at-a-un-security-council-briefing-on-the-political-and-humanitarian-situations-in-syria/

[49] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/06/world/europe/trump-usaid-funding-syria-isis.html

[50] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-aid-cuts-risk-riots-breakouts-islamic-state-linked-camps-syria-2025-02-14/

[51] https://www.facebook.com/groups/317546613058070/permalink/1176681763811213/?_rdr  ; https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1888905513032732761 ; https://x.com/GuckTristan/status/1889255854056116479 ;

[52] https://www.facebook.com/groups/317546613058070/permalink/1176681763811213/?_rdr

[53] https://www.facebook.com/groups/317546613058070/permalink/1176681763811213/?_rdr

[54] https://www.facebook.com/groups/317546613058070/permalink/1176681763811213/?_rdr ; https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1888905513032732761

[55] https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/vocabulary-sectarianism

[56] https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1888905513032732761

[57] https://x.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1888905513032732761

[58] https://www.barrons.com/articles/syrian-al-qaeda-affiliate-announces-dissolution-42347033

[59] https://www.state.gov/secretary-rubios-meeting-with-turkish-foreign-minister-fidan

[60] https://www.state.gov/secretary-rubios-meeting-with-turkish-foreign-minister-fidan

[61] https://x.com/SanaAjel/status/1890343048099303916

[62] https://t.me/HalabTodayTV/120026

[63] https://x.com/timourazhari/status/1890344165105426861

[64] https://x.com/SanaAjel/status/1890343048099303916

[65] http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/76258; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-29-2025

[66] https://mofa.gov dot iq/2025/54125/

[67] https://www.sana.sy/en/?p=346921

[68] https://www.alsumaria dot tv/news/politics/516378/%D9%88%D8%B2%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%B3%D8%A8%D9%88%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%82%D8%A8%D9%84

[69] https://t.me/Sy_Defense/212

[70] https://x.com/EuphratesPost/status/1890337223649673262

[71] https://t.me/HalabTodayTV/119945; https://x.com/suwayda24/status/1889675759951720768; https://x.com/SanaAjel/status/1888891726535762413

[72] https://t.me/teamsmediawar_1/109796

[73] https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/profile-hashd-al-shabak-30th-pmf-brigade ;

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/profile-badr-organization

[74] https://50f3ad00-5b28-4016-898f-6130d301c97a.filesusr.com/ugd/6ae567_98f8f8912baa40949a18a3a0b717eaea.pdf

[75] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LV8sVm1IVLU ; https://news dot walla.co.il/break/3727103

[76] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-and-hamas-agree-to-resolve-cease-fire-dispute-2c3e0714?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos3

[77] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcG3blUixo0 ; https://isw.pub/IranUpdate020425 ; https://news.walla dot co.il/break/3727106

[78] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-ceasefire-mediators-fear-breakdown-deal-egyptian-security-sources-say-2025-02-10/

[79] https://www.axios.com/2025/02/14/israel-hamas-hostage-release-trump-threat ; https://x.com/GLZRadio/status/1890379580747194409

[80] https://x.com/GLZRadio/status/1890384103175803383

[81] https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1890370586620358906

[82] https://www.diplomatie dot gouv.fr/fr/dossiers-pays/liban/evenements/article/liban-entretien-de-m-jean-noel-barrot-avec-son-homologue-13-02-25

[83] https://www.alarabiya dot net/arab-and-world/2025/02/14/%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D9%81%D8%B1%D9%86%D8%B3%D9%8A-%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A7-%D9%84%D9%85-%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%81%D9%82-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D9%85%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%AD-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B3-%D8%A8%D8%B4%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%86%D9%8A%D9%81%D9%8A%D9%84

[84] https://www.bbc.com/persian/articles/ckgyl41ym1jo ;

https://x.com/IranIntl/status/1890392070415585486 ;
https://www.dw dot com/fa-ir/%D8%AE%D9%88%D9%86%DB%8C-%DA%A9%D9%87-%D8%B1%DB%8C%D8%AE%D8%AA%D9%87-%D9%85%DB%8C%D8%B4%D9%87-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D9%87%DB%8C%DA%86%DB%8C-%D9%BE%D8%A7%DA%A9-%D9%86%D9%85%DB%8C%D8%B4%D9%87-%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B6-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84-%DB%8C%DA%A9-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%B4%D8%AC%D9%88/a-71617631 ;

[85] https://x.com/hediekimiaee/status/1890449534456832185;
https://x.com/Sima_Sabet/status/1890483227699068960

[86] https://www.bbc.com/persian/articles/ckgyl41ym1jo

[87] https://x.com/RadioFarda_/status/1890456945494225247;

https://www.bbc.com/persian/articles/ckgyl41ym1jo

[88] https://x.com/NarimanGharib/status/1890045504379097128

[89] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/21/world/middleeast/iran-economy-energy-crisis.html;
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-29-2024;

https://www.mizanonline dot ir/fa/news/4810965

[90] https://www.forbes.com/sites/emmawoollacott/2022/11/28/us-bans-chinese-telecom-kit-over-national-security-concerns/

[91] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/11/26/3257998

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 14, 2025

Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, Grace Mappes, Olivia Gibson, and Frederick W. Kagan

February 14, 2025, 6:15 pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of Ukraine's offensive in Kursk Oblast.

Click here to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 11:30am ET on February 14. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the February 15 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US Vice President JD Vance met on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on February 14. Vance stated during a press conference following the meeting that the United States remains committed to ending the war and achieving a "durable, lasting peace" in Ukraine and not the "kind of peace that's going to have Eastern Europe in conflict just a couple years down the road."[1] Vance noted the importance of dialogue between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine, and declined to speculate on possible conditions of a future peace agreement in order to "preserve the optionality" for the delegations. Vance and Zelensky both noted that the conversation was productive and Zelensky thanked the United States for continued military support.[2] Zelensky stated that the United States and Ukraine are preparing a plan to stop Russian President Vladimir Putin's aggression and finish the war in a just and lasting peace that provides tangible security guarantees for Ukraine. US President Donald Trump told reporters on February 14 that Ukraine would have a seat at the table during future peace negotiations with Russia to end the war.[3]

Ukrainian Presidential Office Head Andriy Yermak met with US Presidential Envoy for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg in Munich and discussed ongoing efforts to achieve a lasting peace in Ukraine.[4] Zelensky also met with a bipartisan delegation of US senators to discuss ongoing US military support for Ukraine, economic cooperation, and the future joint development of critical minerals and rare earth materials in Ukraine.[5] German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, British Deputy Defense Minister Luke Polland, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and other European officials reiterated Europe's support for Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity amid ongoing discussions about future peace negotiations with Russia.[6]

The Kremlin reportedly ordered Russian government-linked media to reduce reporting about US President Donald Trump and portray Russian President Vladimir Putin as a strong and decisive leader after the February 12 Trump-Putin phone call. Russian opposition news outlet Meduza reported on February 14 that the Kremlin instructed Russian state-run and pro-government media outlets to frame Trump and Putin's February 12 call as Putin's "initiative and victory" and to use Trump's name less frequently in coverage of the call and other events.[7] Meduza reported that the Kremlin is concerned that the Russian public might see Trump as a more "proactive and decisive" leader than Putin and wants Russian media to emphasize that Putin alone is responsible for the outcome of negotiations between him and Trump. An unnamed political strategist in the Russian Presidential Administration told Meduza that the Kremlin does not want the Russian public to perceive Trump as a "strong leader capable of changing the situation" and Putin as a passive or weak leader in comparison. The political strategist added that the Kremlin also instructed the Russian media to manage the public's expectations about negotiations to not create "false, overly optimistic expectations." The Russian information space has previously portrayed Trump as a pragmatic leader with whom Russia could work, but the Kremlin may be attempting to negatively shift the Russian public's perception of Trump in order to emphasize Putin's strength and agency amid reports of possible future peace negotiations and bilateral negotiations.

Russian officials and information space actors have notably not amplified the Russian information operation aimed at portraying Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as the illegitimate leader of Ukraine since the February 12 Trump-Putin call. Russian President Vladimir Putin intensified this information operation in January 2024 and most recently questioned Zelensky's legitimacy during a televised interview on January 28, and other Russian officials had amplified this information operation as of February 10.[8] It remains unclear how long Russian officials and information space actors will refrain from amplifying this information operation, however. It would be a significant concession if Putin and other Russian officials recognized Zelensky's legitimacy as Ukraine's president after repeatedly questioning the legitimacy of all Ukrainian leaders since 2014.

A Russian Shahed drone struck the protective structure of the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) on February 14. Geolocated footage published on February 14 shows a drone striking the New Safe Confinement (NSC) structure, built in 2016 to enclose the original temporary shelter structure of Chornobyl's Reactor No. 4, which exploded in April 1986.[9] Ukrainian Internal Affairs Minister Ihor Klymenko reported that emergency services put out the initial fires from the drone strike and began dismantling parts of the NSC to identify and put out remaining smoldering fires.[10] Images published on February 14 show a surface-level hole in the initial layer of the NSC.[11] Ukrainian and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials reported that the strike did not pierce the NSC completely and that radiation levels within and outside the NSC remain normal.[12]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described the damage to the NSC as "significant" and asserted that the drone was flying at an altitude of only 85 meters to avoid Ukrainian radar detection.[13] The NSC has a height of roughly 108 meters.[14] Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) published images of the site showing the wreckage of a black drone labeled "Geran-2" – a common Russian name for the Iranian Shahed-136 drone – and noted that the drone had a "high-explosive" warhead.[15] Head of Ukraine's Center for Combatting Disinformation Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko noted that Russian forces purposefully fly drones over the Chornobyl NPP and constantly experiment with Shahed drone altitudes to fly as low as possible, likely to avoid detection and downing by Ukrainian air defenses.[16]

Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko called on the IAEA to intensify international measures to stop Russian strikes on nuclear facilities following the Chornobyl strike.[17] Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha had an urgent meeting with IAEA Secretary General Rafael Mariano Grossi to discuss the impacts of the Chornobyl strike.[18] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied that Russian forces conducted the strike, and Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused Ukrainian forces of conducting the strike.[19] The Kremlin has periodically conducted information operations aimed at portraying Ukraine as endangering the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP (ZNPP), but continued Russian military operations threatening Ukrainian NPPs highlight that Russia is the actual danger to Ukrainian NPPs.[20]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia may be preparing to launch intensified offensive operations into northern Ukraine or attack NATO's eastern flank in 2026. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned during the Munich Security Conference on February 14 that Russia is preparing upwards of 100,000 to 150,000 thousand troops organized into 15 divisions to "aggravate the situation in the Belarus direction."[21] Zelensky suggested that Russia may intend to attack into Ukraine, Poland, or possibly the Baltic countries. It remains unclear whether Zelensky is referring to active Russian military personnel or Russian efforts to recruit additional forces, as former Russian Defense Minister and Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu announced in March 2024 that Russia aimed to form 14 new military divisions in coming years.[22]

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US Vice President JD Vance met on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on February 14.
  • The Kremlin reportedly ordered Russian government-linked media to reduce reporting about US President Donald Trump and portray Russian President Vladimir Putin as a strong and decisive leader after the February 12 Trump-Putin phone call.
  • Russian officials and information space actors have notably not amplified the Russian information operation aimed at portraying Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as the illegitimate leader of Ukraine since the February 12 Trump-Putin call.
  • A Russian Shahed drone struck the protective structure of the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) on February 14.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia may be preparing to launch intensified offensive operations into northern Ukraine or attack NATO's eastern flank in 2026.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Kurakhove, and Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Vovchansk, Lyman, Kurakhove, and Pokrovsk.
  • Russia is reportedly intensifying efforts to coerce Russian mobilized and conscripted personnel into signing contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

  • Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation
  • Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of three subordinate main efforts)
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
  • Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
  • Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
  • Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
  • Russian Technological Adaptations
  • Activities in Russian-occupied areas
  • Significant Activity in Belarus

Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation

Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast on February 14. Russian milbloggers claimed on February 14 that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian counterattack south of Sudzha near Kurilovka.[23] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are attacking between Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Kolmakov (north of Cherkasskaya Konopelka) and that unspecified Russian VDV (airborne) units are attempting to recapture Sverdlikovo.[24]

Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage published on February 13 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in a forested area north of Kositsa (northeast of Sudzha).[25]

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on February 14 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in the southern outskirts of Sverdlikovo (west of Sudzha).[26]

Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: Russian milbloggers claimed on February 14 that Russian forces have seized most or all of Sverdlikovo (northwest of Sudzha).[27]

A Ukrainian source stated on February 14 that Ukrainian forces destroyed roughly a company's worth of North Korean forces during a recent Russian-North Korean assault in Kursk Oblast.[28]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet) and the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly operating in Kursk Oblast.[29] Russian drone operators of the "Anvar Spetsnaz" detachment (possibly referring to the BARS-25 "Anvar" volunteer detachment), the "Arctic" Battalion of the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet), the 11th VDV Brigade, and the 83rd VDV Brigade's "Tiger" detachment are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast.[30] Drone operators of the "Kamerton" detachment of Chechen "Akhmat" Spetsnaz are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Kositsa.[31]

Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against Krasnodar Krai on the night of February 13 to 14. Krasnodar Krai Operational Headquarters reported on February 13 that Russian air defense systems struck a target over Slavyansk-on-Kuban, Krasnodar Krai and that falling debris caused a fire in a field on the outskirts of the city.[32] Russian opposition outlet Astra published footage on February 13 of drones flying over the city and claimed that Ukrainian drones struck Slavyansk-on-Kuban.[33] Ukrainian forces have previously struck the Slavyansk-on-Kuban oil refinery several times, most recently on February 8.[34]

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City)

Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Kharkiv City.

Assessed Russian advances: Footage published on February 9 and geolocated on February 13 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced along Shchorsa Street in eastern Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City).[35]

The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kharkiv direction stated that the intensity of fighting has decreased near Lypsti (north of Kharkiv City), in part due to poor weather conditions.[36]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations near Kupyansk on February 14 but did not advance. Russian forces continued assaults north of Kupyansk near Holubivka and northeast of Kupyansk near Petropavlivka on February 13 and 14.[37]

Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: A Russian source claimed that Russian forces advanced through Ukraine's defensive lines near Dvorichna (north of Kupyansk) and are consolidating positions on the west (right) bank of the Oskil River.[38]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 9th Artillery Brigade (6th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly operating near Doroshivka (northwest of Kupyansk and southwest of Dvorichna).[39]

Russian forces continued offensive operations near Borova on February 14 but did not advance. Russian forces attacked northeast of Borova near Zahryzove, Bohuslavka, and Zelenyi Hai and southeast of Borova near Novoserhiivka, Hrekivka, and Makiivka on February 13 and 14.[40]

Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced in a forested area up to five kilometers wide and 2.5 kilometers in depth southwest of Makiivka.[41]

Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Lyman. Russian forces continued attacks northeast of Lyman near Novosadove, Kolodyazi, Yampolivka, and Novolyubivka on February 13 and 14.[42]

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on February 14 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in northern Yampolivka.[43] A Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the Russian 37th Motorized Rifle Regiment (67th Motorized Rifle Division, 25th CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) are participating in Russian advances near Yampolivka.[44]

Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced further in the northwestern outskirts of Yampolivka than geolocated footage indicates and east of Kolodyazi.[45]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 16th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff's Main Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly operating in the Serebryanske forest area.[46]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces attacked northeast of Siversk near Hryhorivka and Bilohorivka and east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske on February 13 and 14 but did not advance.[47]

Russian forces attacked in Chasiv Yar on February 13 and 14 but did not advance.[48]

Russian forces attacked in Toretsk itself, north of Toretsk near Krymske, west of Toretsk near Shcherbynivka, and southwest of Toretsk near Sukha Balka and Leonidivka on February 13 and 14 but did not advance.[49]

Order of Battle: Elements of the 1st "Slovyansk" Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st Combined Arms Army [CAA], formerly 1st Donetsk People's Republic Army Corps [DNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Toretsk.[50]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces continued attacking east of Pokrovsk near Zelene Pole, Vodyane Druhe, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Malynivka, and Promin; southeast of Pokrovsk near Lysivka; south of Pokrovsk near Zvirove, Novoukrainka, and Pishchane; and southwest of Pokrovsk near Udachne, Nadiivka, Bohdanivka, Zaporizhzhia, Preobrazhenka, and Uspenivka on February 13 and 14.[51] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Pishchane.[52]

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on February 14 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced north of Yelyzavetivka, within central Pishchane, and northeast of Nadiivka.[53]

Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces seized Zelene Pole, and a Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the Russian 110th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA) participated in seizing the settlement.[54] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced near Tarasivka, northeast of Zelene Pole, in Zaporizhzhia, and in eastern Udachne.[55]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated during the Munich Security Conference that the situation in the Pokrovsk direction has improved in recent days but did not provide further details.[56] The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction stated that Russian activity in this direction has become less intense in recent days but noted that the Pokrovsk direction remains one of the most active areas of the frontline.[57]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) are reportedly operating near Pishchane.[58]

Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in the Kurakhove direction. Russian forces continued attacking west of Kurakhove near Dachne and Kostyantynopil; southwest of Kurakhove near Zelenivka; and northwest of Kurakhove near Shevchenko and Andriivka on February 13 and 14.[59] The Russian MoD claimed on February 14 that elements of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division (8th CAA, SMD) seized Dachne, but ISW assessed that Russian forces seized the settlement as of February 6.[60]

Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage published on February 14 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced northeast of Zelenivka.[61]

Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on February 13 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced along the C-050450 highway south of Rozlyv (west of Kurakhove).[62]

Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced west of Andriivka, but another Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces maintain positions within western Andriivka.[63] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced west of Slovyanka (northeast of Kurakhove), west of Dachne, and further northeast of Zelenivka than geolocated footage indicates.[64]

Russian forces attacked west of Velyka Novosilka near Novosilka and northwest of Velyka Novosilka toward Burlatske on February 13 and 14 but did not advance.[65]

Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced north of Vremivka (just west of Velyka Novosilka).[66]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 5th Tank Brigade (36th CAA, Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly operating near Novoocheretuvate (north of Velyka Novosilka).[67] Elements of the Russan 305th Artillery Brigade (5th CAA, EMD) are reportedly operating near Velyka Novosilka.[68]

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Zaporizhia direction but did not advance on February 14. A Russian milblogger claimed on February 14 that positional fighting continues in the Zaporizhia direction.[69]

Unconfirmed Russian-claimed advances: Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed on February 14 that Russian forces seized two unspecified Ukrainian forces' strongholds near Mala Tokmachka (northeast of Robotyne).[70]

Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported ground activity in the Dnipro direction on February 14.

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)

Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of February 13 to 14. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 133 Shahed and decoy drones from Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and Kursk and Bryansk cities.[71] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 73 Shahed and decoy drones over Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, and Odesa oblasts and that 58 decoy drones were “lost,” likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian drone strikes caused damage in Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Odesa, and Kharkiv oblasts.[72]

See topline text for reporting about strikes against the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant.

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

Russia is reportedly intensifying efforts to coerce Russian mobilized and conscripted personnel into signing contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). Russian State Duma Deputy Maxim Ivanov told Yekaterinburg-based Russian news outlet EANews on February 7 that his constituents in Sverdlovsk Oblast notified him that Russian military commanders are forcing mobilized Sverdlovsk Oblast personnel to sign long-term military service contracts with the Russian MoD that would classify them as professional contract servicemembers (kontraktniki).[73] Ivanov claimed that Russian military commanders want to increase the number of kontraktniki in their units but noted that commanders are sending any mobilized personnel serving in specialist roles, including artillery, communications, engineering support, and electronic warfare (EW) who refuse to sign a long-term contract to fight in infantry assault units. Ivanov stated that he appealed directly to Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov about this issue.

A Russian milblogger and former Storm-Z instructor expressed concern that senior Russian MoD officials are not acknowledging this issue and claimed that commanders in the Russian 85th Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd Combined Arms Army [CAA], formerly 2nd Luhansk People's Republic Army Corps [LNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) are sending mobilized personnel to fight in infantry assault units on the frontline if they refuse to sign MoD contracts.[74] Another Russian source claimed that the Russian Military Prosecutor's Office investigated this issue and found instances where the Russian military command had forged the signatures of conscripts in the 90th Tank Division (41st Combined Arms Army [CAA], Central Military District [CMD]), including its 80th Tank Regiment, 6th Tank Regiment, and 239th Tank Regiment, and military unit 31612 (reportedly a company within the "140th Regiment" or the 429th District Training Center) but that the commands of these units refused to release the conscripts from their contracts.[75] Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on February 12 that Russian commanders are forcing personnel mobilized in 2022 to sign contracts with the MoD, but that it is unclear if the MoD will honor the end dates provided in these contracts.[76]

Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the Russian Ministry of Defense and Rosgvardia to prepare proposals by June 1 to develop a network of military educational institutions, likely to support long-term force generation and military restructuring efforts.[77]

Russian Technological Adaptations (Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine)

A Ukrainian source reported on February 13 that Russian forces began fielding the "KOP-2" electronic warfare (EW) detection and suppression system.[78] The Ukrainian source reported that the "KOP-2" system can detect and suppress drones operating on multiple frequencies using multiple antennas and that the system is composed of Chinese components.

Activities in Russian-occupied areas (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)

ISW is not publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas today.

Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks)

Nothing significant to report.

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media, as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.


[1] https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/ukraine-russia-nato-war-negotiations-02-14-25-intl#cm7525y4s001q3j6mickrfi8r

[2] https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/ukraine-russia-nato-war-negotiations-02-14-25-intl#cm751lscx00193j6mpwha2d6v

[3] https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-ukraine-would-be-involved-peace-talks-with-russia-2025-02-13/

[4] https://www.president.gov dot ua/en/news/andrij-yermak-proviv-zustrich-zi-specpredstavnikom-prezident-96041

[5] https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/13320

[6] https://suspilne dot media/948623-ce-pomilka-pistorius-pro-postupki-ssa-sodo-ukraini/ ; https://suspilne dot media/948347-top-posadovec-mo-britanii-rozpoviv-pro-perspektivu-vidpravki-mirotvorciv-v-ukrainu/ ; https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1890078896919560474 ; https://www.dw dot com/en/msc-failed-ukraine-would-weaken-us-eu-warns/live-71599568

[7] https://meduza dot io/feature/2025/02/14/sozvon-putina-i-trampa-kazhetsya-otlichnym-informatsionnym-povodom-dlya-prokremlevskih-smi ; https://meduza dot io/en/feature/2025/02/14/we-don-t-talk-about-trump

[8] https://isw.pub/UkrWar012925 ; https://tass dot ru/politika/22996325 ; https://ria dot ru/20250210/nebenzya-1998326032.html ; https://ldpr dot ru/event/413379

[9] https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/25623; https://x.com/sternenko/status/1890299523882479707; https://x.com/99Dominik_/status/1890306174097973574

[10] https://t.me/Klymenko_MVS/1319; https://suspilne dot media/kyiv/948603-udar-rf-po-cornobilskij-aes-ukritta-rozbiraut-dla-viavlenna-oseredkiv-tlinna/

[11] https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1890446444345037000; https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1890446444345037000;

[12] https://suspilne dot media/kyiv/948701-caes-atakuvav-rosijskij-dron-kamikadze-geran-2-sbu-rozpocala-rozsliduvanna-za-statteu-pro-voennij-zlocin/; https://suspilne dot media/948851-ak-i-za-skilki-buduvali-ukritta-nad-caes-ake-14-lutogo-poskodiv-rosijskij-sahed/ ; https://t.me/Klymenko_MVS/1319; https://suspilne dot media/kyiv/948603-udar-rf-po-cornobilskij-aes-ukritta-rozbiraut-dla-viavlenna-oseredkiv-tlinna/; https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-275-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine;

[13] https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1890298176038682905; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/02/14/dron-speczialno-letiv-na-nyzkij-vysoti-volodymyr-zelenskyj-prokomentuvav-udar-rosiyi-po-sarkofagu-chaes

[14] https://www.ebrd.com/what-we-do/sectors/nuclear-safety/chernobyl-new-safe-confinement.html

[15] https://t.me/SBUkr/14132 ; https://www.facebook.com/SecurSerUkraine/posts/pfbid0F5riiQ3r1zRmXHaCFYeQ7jCdsho4D3sGE9aYdQy1jor5yjqyURoheJkd7ndMUjMpl

[16] https://t.me/akovalenko1989/8817

[17] https://unn dot ua/en/news/energy-minister-appeals-to-iaea-over-russian-attack-on-chornobyl-npp ; https://kyivindependent dot com/chornobyl-nuclear-plant-shelter-damaged-in-russian-drone-strike/

[18] https://x.com/andrii_sybiha/status/1890347330978599224 ; https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/ukraine-russia-nato-war-negotiations-02-14-25-intl#cm74qrp0x002y3b6mq8sjneg3

[19] https://t.me/tass_agency/300769 ; https://t.me/MID_Russia/52229; https://t.me/tass_agency/300742 ; https://t.me/belta_telegramm/294753;

 

[20] https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Oct%2028%20Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%20PDF.docx_.pdf; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-27-2024; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-12-2024; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024

[21] https://suspilne dot media/948579-rosia-cogo-roku-pidgotue-15-divizij-dla-bilorusi-zelenskij/ ; https://www.euronews dot com/2025/02/14/putin-may-attack-a-nato-country-from-belarus-as-early-as-next-year-zelenskyy-says

[22] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-20-2024 ; https://ria dot ru/20240320/armiya-1934463596.html

[23] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/23854 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/64514

[24] https://t.me/dva_majors/64514

[25] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/8384 ; https://t.me/kamerton_press/717

[26] https://t.me/alkor_aero/120 ; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/8386

[27] https://t.me/yurasumy/21141 ; https://t.me/motopatriot78/32155

[28] https://t.me/ButusovPlus/17390

[29] https://t.me/mod_russia/48875 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/86239 ;

[30] https://t.me/voin_dv/13383; https://t.me/russian_airborne/9114 ;

[31] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/8384; https://t.me/kamerton_press/717

[32] https://t.me/opershtab23/11859

[33] https://t.me/astrapress/74414 ; https://t.me/astrapress/74416

[34] https://t.me/astrapress/74416 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-17-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-19-2024 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-20-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-29-2024

[35] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/8382; https://t.me/rusarmywin/583

[36] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/02/14/vony-vymyly-svoyi-tyurmy-ta-koloniyi-na-harkivshhyni-proty-syl-oborony-voyuyut-nenavcheni-selyany-z-glubinky/

[37] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0RuAG7HcCjSB39agDGYVDjF2yh12modTfXi2YGQpPWwNWCQQ7CLZRtKFJMgcK3KwMl ; https://t.me/synegubov/13084 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02uSgesTLBejyKDmQRx3TYC1ghms2bfmrGtTErcEBZtBudaCqkFzwcxiH3QJfvPeskl ; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/5265

[38] https://t.me/tass_agency/300687  ; https://t.me/tass_agency/300697

[39] https://t.me/operational_space/2527 ; https://x.com/SibirPrizrak/status/1890151006941384739/photo/2

[40] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/20959 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0RuAG7HcCjSB39agDGYVDjF2yh12modTfXi2YGQpPWwNWCQQ7CLZRtKFJMgcK3KwMl ; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/24610 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02uSgesTLBejyKDmQRx3TYC1ghms2bfmrGtTErcEBZtBudaCqkFzwcxiH3QJfvPeskl ; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/5265

[41] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/86240

[42] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/20959 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0RuAG7HcCjSB39agDGYVDjF2yh12modTfXi2YGQpPWwNWCQQ7CLZRtKFJMgcK3KwMl ; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/24610 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02uSgesTLBejyKDmQRx3TYC1ghms2bfmrGtTErcEBZtBudaCqkFzwcxiH3QJfvPeskl ; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/5265 ; https://t.me/yurasumy/21139

 

[43] https://x.com/MikiValbuena/status/1890346306012414364; https://t.me/ombr_63/1122 ; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/8389

[44] https://t.me/motopatriot78/32160

[45] https://t.me/motopatriot78/32160 ; https://t.me/yurasumy/21139 ; https://t.me/yurasumy/21137

[46] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/154508

[47] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/20959 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0RuAG7HcCjSB39agDGYVDjF2yh12modTfXi2YGQpPWwNWCQQ7CLZRtKFJMgcK3KwM

[48] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/20959 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0RuAG7HcCjSB39agDGYVDjF2yh12modTfXi2YGQpPWwNWCQQ7CLZRtKFJMgcK3KwMl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02uSgesTLBejyKDmQRx3TYC1ghms2bfmrGtTErcEBZtBudaCqkFzwcxiH3QJfvPeskl ; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/5265

[49] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/20959 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0RuAG7HcCjSB39agDGYVDjF2yh12modTfXi2YGQpPWwNWCQQ7CLZRtKFJMgcK3KwMl ; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/24610 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02uSgesTLBejyKDmQRx3TYC1ghms2bfmrGtTErcEBZtBudaCqkFzwcxiH3QJfvPeskl ; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/5265 

[50] https://x.com/AudaxonX/status/1890135984202748195; https://x.com/AudaxonX/status/1890136168655630697; https://t.me/mod_russia/48851 ; https://t.me/nm_dnr/13384; https://x.com/AudaxonX/status/1890352457194049923 ; https://x.com/AudaxonX/status/1890352457194049923 ; https://t.me/nm_dnr/13384

[51] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/20959 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0RuAG7HcCjSB39agDGYVDjF2yh12modTfXi2YGQpPWwNWCQQ7CLZRtKFJMgcK3KwMl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02uSgesTLBejyKDmQRx3TYC1ghms2bfmrGtTErcEBZtBudaCqkFzwcxiH3QJfvPeskl ; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/5265 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62123 ; https://t.me/yurasumy/21138

[52] https://t.me/yurasumy/21137

[53] https://t.me/ghost_of_khortytsia/301; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/8390 ; https://x.com/stopthetwigs/status/1890168761900232771 ; https://t.me/sokoly_foksa_47/162 ; https://t.me/stepovi_hyzhaky_59/5732; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/8381

[54] https://t.me/mod_russia/48886 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62121  

[55] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62121 ; https://t.me/motopatriot78/32166 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/64514  ; https://t.me/wargonzo/24783  

[56] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/02/14/sytuacziya-na-pokrovskomu-napryamku-pokrashhylasya-volodymyr-zelenskyj/; https://suspilne dot media/947455-munhenska-bezpekova-konferencia-2025-golovni-podii-ta-zaavi-den-persij/?anchor=live_1739530226&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps

[57] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/02/14/gulyayut-na-vsi-groshi-ale-nedovgo-na-pokrovskomu-napryamku-vorog-za-hvylyny-vtrachaye-tehniku-yaku-nakopychuye-tyzhnyamy/

[58] https://t.me/motopatriot78/32167

[59] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/20959 ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0RuAG7HcCjSB39agDGYVDjF2yh12modTfXi2YGQpPWwNWCQQ7CLZRtKFJMgcK3KwMl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02uSgesTLBejyKDmQRx3TYC1ghms2bfmrGtTErcEBZtBudaCqkFzwcxiH3QJfvPeskl ; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/5265 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62119

[60] https://t.me/mod_russia/48885 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/48890 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-6-2025

[61] https://t.me/voin_dv/13391 ; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/8387

[62] https://t.me/brygada23/1057 ; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/8380

[63] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/62119 ; https://t.me/motopatriot78/32157

[64] https://t.me/yurasumy/21135 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/24783

[65] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0RuAG7HcCjSB39agDGYVDjF2yh12modTfXi2YGQpPWwNWCQQ7CLZRtKFJMgcK3KwMl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02uSgesTLBejyKDmQRx3TYC1ghms2bfmrGtTErcEBZtBudaCqkFzwcxiH3QJfvPeskl ; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/5265

[66] https://t.me/yurasumy/21134  

[67] https://t.me/motopatriot78/32171

[68] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/154528

[69] https://t.me/wargonzo/24783  

[70] https://t.me/tass_agency/300706

[71] https://t.me/kpszsu/28747

[72] https://t.me/kpszsu/28747 ; https://t.me/synegubov/13083 ; https://t.me/synegubov/13084 ; https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/12083

[73] https://eanews dot ru/rossiya/20250207155445/glavu-minoborony-prosyat-razobratsya-s-prinuzhdeniem-sverdlovskih-mobilizovannyh-podpisyvat-kontrakty

[74] https://t.me/philologist_zov/2015; https://t.me/philologist_zov/2014; https://t.me/philologist_zov/2016

[75] https://t.me/mobilizationnews/22081 ; https://t.me/netprizyvu/3399 ; https://t.me/sotaproject/93781 ; https://t.me/sotaproject/90339; https://vk dot com/topic-7716886_27719495

[76] https://verstka dot media/peace_negotiation_perpetual-contract_svo_news ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-12-2025

[77] https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/23139123

[78] https://t.me/serhii_flash/4911