By Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola
Key Takeaway: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) resumed
reporting of airstrikes in Syria on October 26, following a hiatus of
reports about airstrikes from October 23-25. The Russian MoD claimed to
carry out “59 sorties” from October 24-26 in the Syrian provinces of
Idlib, Latakia, Homs, Damascus, Aleppo, and Deir ez-Zour. Russian
airstrikes from October 25-26 largely supported regime ground offensives
against Syrian rebels near the al-Ghab Plain in northwestern Hama
Province and south of Aleppo City. Meanwhile, ISIS captured sections of
the road between Khanasser and Ithriya in southeastern Aleppo Province
from October 22-26 and claimed to sever the regime supply route to
Aleppo City amidst ongoing regime advances near the besieged Kuweires
Airbase east of Aleppo. The Russian MoD claimed airstrikes near the city
of Palmyra in central Syria; however, local reporting has not yet
substantiated these claims. ISW therefore does not consider the Russian
MoD reports concerning Palmyra to be credible at this time. No
high-confidence Russian airstrikes occurred against ISIS’s positions
during the reporting period. Meanwhile, the U.S. Coalition did not report airstrikes in Syria from October 24-26,
an unusual break in the pattern of reported airstrikes following the
U.S.-Russian MOU concerning air safety protocols over Syria.
Russia continued its disinformation campaign in an effort to present
itself as a constructive force in Syria. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov announced on October 24 that Moscow is willing to provide air support to
Western-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) groups if the U.S. shares
intelligence on the locations of both FSA-affiliated groups and
“terrorists.” The majority of Russian airstrikes in Syria to date have
targeted rebel forces throughout Syria, however, undermining the
credibility of Russian rhetoric regarding cooperation with the moderate
FSA-affiliated opposition. Russian warplanes have targeted several
moderate U.S.-backed TOW missile recipients since the start of the
Russian aerial campaign in Syria on September 30, including Liwa Suqour
al-Jebel and Tajamu' al-Izza in the provinces of Idlib and Hama, as well
as the Martyr Lieutenant Ahmed Abdou Battalion in Damascus and the
First Coastal Division in Latakia. Human Rights Watch released a report on
October 25 detailing a Russian strike targeting the home of a commander
in the FSA-affiliated Islamist Harakat Tahreer Homs, killing 59
civilians.
The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike
locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian
state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials.
High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.
High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.
