by: Patrick Martin and ISW Iraq Team
The
ISF launched a major operation to encircle Ramadi city from the north and west
on October 7. The objective was to cut ISIS's supply lines between Ramadi and
Hit. The operation also positioned ISF units and tribal fighters for continued
attacks on Ramadi, the main effort of the ISF since July. ISF and tribal
fighters under the Anbar Operations Command assumed positions north of the
city, while those under the Babil Operations Command took to the
west. Coalition and Iraqi airstrikes are ongoing nearby, while clashes
continue between ISIS and other ISF units in the Anbar University campus south
of Ramadi.
It
is unclear if the ISF will be able to hold these areas, as previous attempts to
encircle Ramadi failed after short term gains. The Olympic Stadium in 7 Kilo
area west of Ramadi, cleared on October 4, had been cleared previously on
July 13, indicating that ISIS returned in the interim. In addition, the
ISF has been unable to approach Ramadi city from the east. Federal Police
continue to clash with ISIS in the eastern Husayba area without signs of
significant progress. These obstacles indicate the challenges ahead for the ISF
in its largest urban operation since the ISF recaptured Tikrit on April 1,
2015.
The
ability of the ISF to recapture Ramadi with US-led Coalition air support is
necessary for PM Haidar al-Abadi to demonstrate his independence from Iranian
proxy militias who seek to undermine the sovereignty of the Iraqi state. The
proxy militias have thus far had no role in the Ramadi operations since they
refocused their efforts from Ramadi to Salah al-Din on May 26, 2015 as part of
their independent “Labayk Ya Hussein” operation. The success of the ISF
operation to recapture Anbar’s provincial capital is also important for the
U.S. to demonstrate why it is the essential partner to the Iraqi state. Russia
is trying to usurp the US's role as the leading anti-ISIS partner in Iraq
and elsewhere; Russia will share this status with Iran and curb PM Abadi's
independence. A failure to secure Ramadi would undoubtedly increase the amount
of pressure on PM Abadi to reduce his reliance on the U.S.-led Coalition in
favor of Russia and Iran.
