By Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola
Key Takeaway: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continued to
ramp up its aerial campaign in Syria, claiming to conduct 250 “combat sorties”
from October 9-12. This spike in Russian military activity is a notable
escalation compared to the 20 “combat sorties” flown on October 8.
Most Russian airstrikes continued to concentrate in northwestern Hama
province in support of a large-scale regime offensive in the area. In addition,
Russian warplanes conducted numerous airstrikes in the western countryside of
Aleppo against rebel and Jabhat al-Nusra positions. These airstrikes coincided
with ISIS’s largest advance against rebels in northern Aleppo since August
2015, indicating that Russian airstrikes are not deterring ISIS from
launching new offensives. Instead, rebels in Aleppo province are currently
facing escalated threats from pro-regime airstrikes and ISIS
simultaneously. The Russian MoD also claimed airstrikes in the vicinity of
Kuweires Airbase east of Aleppo City, likely targeting
ISIS, alongside Syrian regime operations near the airbase that led to the
death of IRGC Brigadier General Hossein Hamedani on October 8. Kuweiris has
been under siege by ISIS, such that providing relief to pro-regime ground
forces there requires engaging ISIS directly. The Russian MoD also claimed
airstrikes in ar-Raqqah, Homs, and Damascus, which would suggest additional
strikes targeted a combination of ISIS and rebel positions; however,
credible local reporting did not validate these claims.
The following graphic
depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike
locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian
state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials.
High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.
High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.
