Avery Borens, Ben Rezaei, Johanna Moore, and Brian Carter
Information Cutoff: 5:00 AM ET
The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) are publishing multiple updates daily to provide analysis on the war with Iran. The morning update will focus on the exchange of fire between Iran and Israel. The evening update will be more comprehensive, covering events over the past 24-hour period and refining items discussed in the morning update.
Six US Air Force air-to-air refuelers moved westward from bases in California and Oklahoma to Honolulu, Hawaii, and Travis Air Force Base, California, respectively, on June 19. Open-source flight trackers showed six US Air Force KC-46A Pegasus aircraft redeploying westward to Travis Air Force Base, California, and Honolulu, Hawaii, on June 19.[1] The KC-46A Pegasus is an aerial refueling aircraft that supports combat operations by enabling aircraft to project power over an extended area.[2]
Key Takeaways
- The US Air Force deployed six air-to-air refueling aircraft to California and Hawaii. The aircraft support combat operations by enhancing the ability of aircraft to project force.
- Israel has continued to strike Iranian air defense and missile forces. These strikes have helped Israel achieve air superiority over parts of Iran and preempt Iranian missile attacks.
- Israel has continued to strike the Iranian internal security apparatus, which could degrade the ability of the regime to repress its people.
- Iran has continued firing small waves of one-way attack drones at Israel, but with no real success. The attacks appear poorly coordinated if they are meant to overwhelm Israeli defenses.
The Israel Defense Forces continues its campaign to destroy Iranian ballistic missile systems and air defenses.[3] This line of effort is essential to preempt Iranian missile attacks and limit the threat Iranian ballistic missiles pose to Israeli civilians. Iran launched one ballistic missile attack since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff, but one missile penetrated Israeli defenses and struck near a residential area in Beer Sheva, injuring five Israelis.[4] The IDF is continuing to confront the challenge posed by ballistic missiles, however. The IDF struck over 35 missile storage and launch infrastructure sites in Tabriz and Kermanshah.[5] The IDF also struck missile and radar systems in Esfahan and Tehran.[6] The IDF struck three missile launchers prepared to fire elsewhere as well and separately killed an unspecified IRGC commander who commanded 15 missile launchers.[7] The size of this officer’s command suggests he is probably a battalion-level commander. A single battery of fifteen launchers would presumably be beyond a single battery commander’s span of control, which makes it more likely that the slain officer is roughly equivalent to a battalion commander. An artillery or missile battalion consists of multiple batteries.
The IDF issued an evacuation order on June 19 for the area around the Sefid Roud Industrial Complex in Taleshan, Gilan Province.[8] This complex is linked to Iran’s missile program. The IDF conducted four airstrikes targeting the area following the evacuation order.[9] The Sefid Roud Industrial Complex reportedly houses a Navid Composite Material Company carbon fiber production plant.[10] The United States sanctioned the Navid Composite Material Company in 2013 for its involvement in Iran’s ballistic missile program.[11]
Other IDF strikes have continued to degrade Iran’s nuclear program. The IDF struck the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND) again after it had previously struck the facility on June 14.[12] The SPND played a leading role in the Iranian nuclear weapons research program before 2003, though SPNG used a different name at the time. The IDF also struck the Sanjarian site in Tehran Province again on June 20 after targeting it on June 18.[13] This site was a key facility in Iran's Amad nuclear weapons program and missile component production.[14] The site hosted high-explosive testing in specialized chambers.[15]
The IDF separately targeted a residence in the Gisha neighborhood of Tehran on June 20 that reportedly killed an Iranian nuclear scientist.[16] Israeli media reported that an Israeli drone struck the scientist’s residence.[17]
The IDF has also continued to strike targets that are important to Iran’s internal security and social control apparatus, which could destabilize the regime over time. The IDF targeted two key sites in Tehran Province on June 20. The IDF targeted the Iranian Law Enforcement Command (LEC) Headquarters in Central Tehran and the LEC Special Units in southeastern Tehran.[18] The IDF previously targeted the Iranian LEC on June 18.[19] The destruction of these facilities and the disruption of the LEC could destabilize the regime over time because the LEC plays a key role in suppressing civil unrest and maintaining regime control. The LEC also oversees the Special Units, a highly trained anti-riot force deployed when regular police are unable to manage civil unrest.[20] The LEC has also intervened abroad, such as in Syria, in order to help secure other members of the Axis of Resistance.[21]
Iran has continued to fire drones at Israel, but these attacks are relatively ineffective due to the amount of time Israel has to react to Iranian drone attacks. The drones employed by Iran to target Israel take roughly nine hours to reach Israel, which enables Israel to scramble aircraft or direct aircraft on combat air patrol to intercept incoming projectiles. The IDF has intercepted four drones targeting Israel since CTP-ISW's 5:00 PM ET data cutoff on June 19.[22] The IDF intercepted an Iranian drone over Haifa in northern Israel.[23] The IDF also intercepted three Iranian drones over the Dead Sea.[24] These drone interceptions occurred in three separate waves that were reported at 5:20 PM ET, 8:05 PM ET, and 8:38 PM ET.[25] None of the three waves appears calibrated to enter Israeli airspace at the same time as the ballistic missile attack mentioned above, which was reported at 10:48 PM ET.[26] This means that the drones presumably failed to strain Israeli air defense bandwidth like they would if the drones entered Israeli airspace at the same time as the ballistic missiles.
The IDF targeted an IRGC base in Bostan Abad, East Azerbaijan Province, on June 20.[27] Iranian media confirmed the strike and reported several IRGC personnel casualties.[28]
Iranian media circulated a statement reportedly from Iranian Supreme Leader Adviser Ali Shamkhani claiming that he is alive, but Iran has offered no visual evidence of Shamkhani’s survival at this time. Iranian state media reported on June 20 that Ali Shamkhani sent a letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stating that he is alive and “ready to sacrifice myself.”[29] The IDF previously announced that it had killed Shamkhani on June 13.[30]
[1] https://www.airnavradar.com/data/registration/21-46086 ; https://www.airnavradar.com/data/registration/21-46094 ; https://www.airnavradar.com/data/registration/17-46035 ; https://www.airnavradar.com/data/flights/CHAOS82/2472998587 ; https://www.airnavradar.com/data/registration/16-46016 ; https://www.airnavradar.com/data/registration/16-46012
[2] https://www.boeing.com/defense/kc-46a-pegasus-tanker#value
[3] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/air-force-hit-military-facilities-nuclear-research-site-in-tehran-overnight-idf-says/ ;
https://x.com/IAFsite/status/1936068234119155730 ;
https://x.com/IAFsite/status/1935977106371960891 ;
https://x.com/IAFsite/status/1935940079194980683 ;
https://x.com/IAFsite/status/1935930277244580304 ;
https://x.com/no_itsmyturn/status/1936035674676773282 ;
https://x.com/IDFFarsi/status/1936023924946370998 ;
https://x.com/IDFFarsi/status/1935990017693823194
[4] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1935892568442806616 ; https://t.me/moriahdoron/23326 ; https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1935927411373150436; https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1935927411373150436
[5] https://t.me/moriahdoron/23336 ;
https://x.com/IDFFarsi/status/1935990017693823194 ;
https://x.com/IAFsite/status/1936068234119155730
[6] https://x.com/IAFsite/status/1935940079194980683
[7] https://x.com/IDFFarsi/status/1935944615879700898 ; https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1935975236450562219 ; https://x.com/JoeTruzman/status/1936079943190159782;
[8] https://x.com/IDFFarsi/status/1935810966140092442
[9] https://x.com/AJEnglish/status/1936006921158336517 ; https://x.com/vanguardintel/status/1935849568522137684 ; https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1935847102610833523
[10] https://x.com/no_itsmyturn/status/1935815163246256360
[11] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jl0322
[12] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/air-force-hit-military-facilities-nuclear-research-site-in-tehran-overnight-idf-says/; https://x.com/IAFsite/status/1934031792018973137
[13] https://x.com/IAFsite/status/1935977106371960891 ;
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-report-june-19-2025-evening-edition
[14] https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/renewed-activity-at-the-sanjarian-and-golab-dareh-amad-sites
[15] https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/renewed-activity-at-the-sanjarian-and-golab-dareh-amad-sites
[16] https://www.jpost dot com/middle-east/iran-news/article-858425 ;
https://x.com/iranwire/status/1935999041063576023
[17] https://www.jpost dot com/middle-east/iran-news/article-858425
[18] https://x.com/IAFsite/status/1936009515587321876
[19] https://x.com/Israel_katz/status/1935328201724633343 ;
https://x.com/vvanwilgenburg/status/1935404496336957650
[20] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/explainer-iranian-armed-forces
[21] https://www.unitedagainstnucleariran.com/ahmad-reza-radan-commander-of-islamic-republic-of-irans-law-enforcement-command
[22] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1935809822454153369 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1935851441039503824 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1935859724672434403
[23] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1935809822454153369
[24] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1935851441039503824 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1935859724672434403
[25] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1935809822454153369 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1935851441039503824 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1935859724672434403
[26] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1935892568442806616
[27] https://www.khabaronline dot ir/news/2080269
[28] https://www.khabaronline dot ir/news/2080269
[29] https://x.com/PressTV/status/1935966043727380916 ; https://x.com/EnglishFars/status/1935998546370498711 ; https://x.com/mehrnews_ir/status/1935955514921189531
[30] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1933875784248074415
