Brian Carter, Andie Parry, Annika Ganzeveld, and Alexandra Braverman
Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET
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Unspecified officials familiar with the hostage negotiations told the Wall Street Journal that divisions between Hamas’ leadership in the Gaza Strip and its exiled political leadership are impeding negotiations. The
officials said that Hamas’ political leader in the Gaza Strip, Yahya
Sinwar, is prepared to accept a six-week pause in fighting and hostage
exchange, but that Hamas’ exiled political leadership is calling for
more concessions and a permanent ceasefire.[1] Egyptian
officials added that Hamas’ political leadership is also demanding the
release of 3,000 Palestinian prisoners—including some who took part in
the October 7, 2023 attacks—in return for 36 Israeli civilian hostages.[2] Beirut-based
senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan said on February 3 that Hamas and
its allies rejected the six-week pause in fighting in a “united
decision.”[3] Hamdan
added that Hamas and its allies are committed to a permanent ceasefire.
The Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader demanded that any negotiations
guarantee a “comprehensive ceasefire,” an Israeli withdrawal from and
reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, and a “clear political solution.”[4]
Key Takeaways:
- Negotiations: Unspecified officials familiar with the hostage negotiations told the Wall Street Journal that divisions between Hamas’ leadership in the Gaza Strip and its exiled political leadership are impeding negotiations.
- US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that approving a hostage release deal is “up to Hamas,” but that he is not able to give a precise timetable on a hostage release deal.[10] He added that a deal is not imminent.
- Hamas’ political leader in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar, may calculate that a six-week pause would slow Israel’s momentum sufficiently enough to permanently end fighting and secure Hamas’ rule in the Gaza Strip. An interim pause leading to less intense Israeli ground operations or an end to Israeli operations would likely ensure Hamas’ survival as a governing authority in the Gaza Strip.
- Sinwar also likely seeks a pause in fighting to secure short-term military advantage. A six-week pause would enable Sinwar to reorganize his military forces, accelerate their infiltration into areas previously cleared by Israeli forces, and continue the reconstitution of Hamas’ military organization in the northern Gaza Strip free from Israeli interference.
- Northern Gaza Strip: Palestinian fighters continued their efforts aimed at disrupting Israeli operations in the northern Gaza Strip, primarily in the al Sinaa area of southwestern Gaza City, on February 4.
- Southern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces have “intensified” fighting in al Amal area of western Khan Younis in recent days.
- Yemen: The United States and the United Kingdom conducted strikes targeting 36 Houthi military positions and assets in 13 locations across Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen on February 3.
Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:
- Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
- Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.
Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:
- Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there
Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian militias eight times across the West Bank on February 4.[25] Israeli forces detained four wanted individuals and confiscated weapons in overnight raids across the West Bank on February 4.[26]
This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.
Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:
- Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
- Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel
Iran and Axis of Resistance
Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:
- Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
- Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts
[1] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-says-next-target-is-crowded-gaza-border-city-adding-urgency-to-cease-fire-talks-d37c3011?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos3
[2] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-says-next-target-is-crowded-gaza-border-city-adding-urgency-to-cease-fire-talks-d37c3011?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos3
[3] https://t.me/hamasps/19404; https://t.me/hamasps/19405
[4] https://t.me/jeninqassamm/4234
[5] https://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/1-1-jake-sullivan-106933152
[6] https://www.haaretz dot com/israel-news/2024-02-04/ty-article-live/u-s-and-allies-strike-over-30-houthi-targets-in-yemen-to-re-stabilize-red-sea/0000018d-7217-d4f1-a18d-f6776d6a0000
[7] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-and-hamas-weigh-three-stage-cease-fire-e08fdfe5
[8] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-and-hamas-weigh-three-stage-cease-fire-e08fdfe5
[9] https://twitter.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1754024585148735854
[10] https://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/1-1-jake-sullivan-106933152
[11] https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4122 ; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1543 ; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1544 ; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1545 ; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1546
[12] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-3-2024
[13] https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4122 ; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1545; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1544 ; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1543
[14] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1546
[15] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1754046994476052507
[16] https://t.me/sarayaps/17375 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/17376 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5624 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5625 ; https://t.me/AymanGouda/5980
[17] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1754158037672112171
[18] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1754158037672112171
[19] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1754158037672112171
[20] https://www dot idf.il/178232
[21] https://www dot idf.il/178232
[22] https://www dot idf.il/178232
[23] https://www dot idf.il/178232
[24] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1754046927346212930 ; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1754046935151862040 ; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1754046988989919703 ; https://www dot idf.il/178232
[25] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5620
https://t.me/kataebaqsapalestine/2907
https://t.me/kataebaqsapalestine/2908
https://t.me/kataebaqsapalestine/2909
https://t.me/kataebaqsapalestine/2910
https://t.me/QudsN/366614
https://t.me/QudsN/366571
[26] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1754072601364750786 ; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1754072599380811859
[27] https://t.me/C_Military1/45207
https://t.me/C_Military1/45229
https://t.me/C_Military1/45238
https://t.me/C_Military1/45249
https://t.me/C_Military1/45252
https://t.me/C_Military1/45254
https://t.me/C_Military1/45256
https://t.me/C_Military1/45261
[28] https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1753911711650943335
[29] https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1753911711650943335
[30] https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1753911711650943335
[31] https://twitter.com/army21ye/status/1753972477447839814
[32] https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1753873636380041702;
https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1753982254743769130
[33] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/11/15/3033731