Andie Parry, Amin Soltani, Kathryn Tyson, Alexandra Braverman, Peter Mills, Kathryn Tyson, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, and Brian Carter
Key Takeaways:
- Southern Gaza Strip: Israel presented a proposal to move displaced Gazans in Rafah to Egyptian-built tent cities in the southwestern Gaza Strip, according to the Wall Street Journal.
- Negotiations: Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan claimed on February 12 that Egyptian and Qatar mediators believe that the Hamas ceasefire proposal that Qatar delivered to Israel “opened a way to reach an agreement.”
- Hamdan reiterated Hamas’ longstanding requirements for a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, which include the withdrawal of Israeli forces, the end of Israeli military operations, humanitarian aid and reconstruction, and a hostage-for-prisoner exchange deal.
- Lebanon: France outlined a three-step plan to deescalate the conflict on the Israel-Lebanon border and force Lebanese Hezbollah to withdraw six miles from the Israeli border.
- Iran: Former Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister and Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Director General Ali Akbar Salehi said during an interview on February 11 that Iran is able to develop nuclear weapons.
Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:
- Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
- Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.
Israeli forces continued clearing operations in western Khan Younis and clashed with Palestinian fighters there. The IDF 7th Brigade (assigned to the 36th Division) raided militia infrastructure, conducted patrols, and killed over thirty Palestinian fighters in western Khan Younis.[9] The 35th Paratrooper Brigade (assigned to the 98th Division) killed two Palestinian fighters in western Khan Younis who were hiding among civilians to disguise their movement.[10] Local Palestinian sources reported that Israeli forces advanced to the gates of the Nasser Hospital in western Khan Younis on February 13 and ordered the occupants to evacuate the grounds.[11]
West Bank
Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:
- Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there
Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights
Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:
- Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
- Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel
Iran and Axis of Resistance
Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:
- Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
- Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts
The IRGC fired short and medium-range ballistic missiles from a forward base ship in the Gulf of Oman toward central Iran during a military exercise on February 12.[50] The IRGC Navy and Aerospace Force launched the missiles from the Shahid Mahdavi forward base ship using a launcher disguised as a shipping container.[51] The ability to launch ballistic missiles from a containerized launcher means that Iran has the capability to hide the launcher on otherwise unassuming, civilian container ships. Iran could use these container ships as commerce raiders to attack merchant shipping and disrupt maritime traffic without a requirement for land-based launchers.[52] Iranian officials and media used this event to signal the IRGC’s ability to directly target Iran’s adversaries, including Israel.[53]
Former Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister and Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Director General Ali Akbar Salehi said during an interview on February 11 that Iran is able to develop nuclear weapons.[54] Salehi claimed that Iran has the components it requires to make nuclear weapons and noted that these parts have non-weapons related purposes. Salehi was responding to a state television presenter’s question about Iran’s ability to build a nuclear weapon. International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi called for transparency from the Iranian nuclear program and expressed concern over Salehi’s remarks during the World Government Summit in Dubai on February 13.[55]
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian implied that Israel will not achieve its war time goals in a meeting with Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh. Abdollahian implied the Israel will not achieve its goals, citing Hamas’ participation in “political negotiations” with Israel, the United States, Qatar, and Egypt.[59] Abdollahian claimed that the United States and Israel recognize Hamas as a “party to political negotiations“ in the war and the group‘s “irreplaceable role and position. He also ”praised” the Axis of Resistance for its “brave support” of the Palestinian people.
Abdollahian is using his ongoing regional tour to coordinate politically with Axis of Resistance leaders, including Haniyeh. Abdollahian met with Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut on February 10.[60] He separately met with senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine officials in Beirut on the same date.
Abdollahian separately met with the Qatari prime minister and foreign affairs minister and the Qatari emir in separate meetings in Doha on February 13.[61] Abdollahian and the Qatari leaders discussed a political solution to the Israel-Hamas war in both meetings. The Qatari prime minister and foreign affairs minister stressed the necessity contain the scope of the war.[62] This marks Abdollahian’s fifth trip to Doha since the start of the Israel-Hamas war.[63]
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[2] https://www.idf dot il/180294
[3] https://t.me/sarayaps/17431
[4] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1757300500414845254 ; https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1757307845983244404
[5] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1749460612860592320 ;
https://twitter.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1756577961585565893
[6] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1749460612860592320
[7] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1605 ; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1606 ; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1607 ; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1608
[8] https://t.me/sarayaps/17432
[9] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1757300437898633384 ; https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1757307845983244404
[10] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1757300440427815272 ; https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1757307845983244404
[11] https://twitter.com/NemoAnno/status/1757393776249573756 ; https://twitter.com/qudsn/status/1757349104575819887 ; https://twitter.com/ytirawi/status/1757357355958685949 ; https://twitter.com/ytirawi/status/1757353408481157197
[12] www dot idf.il/180285 ; https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1757405119837016130
[13] www dot idf.il/180285 ; https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1757405119837016130
[14] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1603 ; www dot idf.il/180285 ; https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1757254830953738715
[15] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1602
[16] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-rescues-two-hostages-held-by-hamas-in-gaza-ec5ca99a?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos3
[17] https://www.idf dot il/180294
[18] https://www.kan dot org.il/content/kan-news/defense/701049/
[19] https://www.idf dot il/180294
[20] https://t.me/hamaswestbank/50318
[21] https://t.me/hamaswestbank/50318
[22] https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-02-13-24/h_5ce99f2e13764715ee147be95ff3d62d
[23] https://twitter.com/IsraeliPM/status/1755336255250792928
[24] https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-02-13-24/h_5ce99f2e13764715ee147be95ff3d62d ; https://jpost dot com/breaking-news/article-786742 ; https://t.me/hamza20300/213883
[25] https://t.me/darebmojahden/4368 ; https://t.me/darebmojahden/4369
[26] https://t.me/darebmojahden/4373
[27] https://t.me/kataebaqsapalestine/2968 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5707 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5706 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5705
[28] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1757311026985402708
[29] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1757351003114909949
[30] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1757384118222909818
[31] https://t.me/mmirleb/2004; https://t.me/C_Military1/45704; https://t.me/mmirleb/2006; https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1757334910191227069; https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1757348244353396842; https://t.me/C_Military1/45717; https://t.me/mmirleb/2010; https://t.me/mmirleb/2013; https://t.me/mmirleb/2015
[32] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/mother-teen-son-seriously-hurt-in-hezbollah-rocket-attack-on-kiryat-shmona/; https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1757334910191227069
[33] https://www.reuters.com/world/france-proposes-hezbollah-withdrawal-border-talks-israel-lebanon-truce-2024-02-12/; https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/13/world/middleeast/hezbollah-israel-strikes-talks.html?smid=url-share
[34] https://www.reuters.com/world/france-proposes-hezbollah-withdrawal-border-talks-israel-lebanon-truce-2024-02-12/
[35] https://www.reuters.com/world/france-proposes-hezbollah-withdrawal-border-talks-israel-lebanon-truce-2024-02-12/
[36] https://t.me/QudsN/370688
[37] https://t.me/C_Military1/45734
[38] https://t.me/C_Military1/45732
[39] https://twitter.com/kann_news/status/1757476364569936027
[40] https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/reinforcing-us-diplomacy-stop-hezbollah-israel-war
[41] https://al-hashed.gov dot iq/?p=519426 ; https://www.alahad dot iq/?page=article&itemId=186795
[42] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-february-3-2024
[43] https://deirezzor24 dot net/الميليشيات-الإيرانية-تدخل-Ø´Øنة-أسلØØ©
[44] https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/profile-liwa-al-tafuf-13th-pmf-brigade
[45]; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-february-3-2024 ; https://twitter.com/DeirEzzore/status/1753714182795538773 ; https://t.me/teamsmediawar_1/98240
[46] https://t.me/damascusv011/20884 ; https://www.syriahr dot com/en/325329/
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[48] https://t.me/damascusv011/20905 ; https://x.com/OALD24/status/1757459307740717375?s=20
[49] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-18-2023
[50] https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-program-iaea-gross-israel-hamas-gaza-war-ee164aefb63a533548a54179c952b5e1?utm_source=copy&utm_medium=share ; https://www.presstv dot ir/Detail/2024/02/13/720023/Islamic-Revolution-Guards-Corps-Navy-ballistic-missile-Shahid-Mahdavi-aircraft-carrier-; https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/651116; https://www.barrons.com/news/iran-fires-first-ship-based-long-range-ballistic-missiles-509be62a
[51] https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-program-iaea-gross-israel-hamas-gaza-war-ee164aefb63a533548a54179c952b5e1?utm_source=copy&utm_medium=share
[52] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-december-20-2023 ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-december-15-2023
[53] https://en.irna dot ir/news/85385019; https://www.farsnews dot ir/news/14021123000865; https://www.presstv dot ir/Detail/2024/02/13/720023/Islamic-Revolution-Guards-Corps-Navy-ballistic-missile-Shahid-Mahdavi-aircraft-carrier-; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-12-2024 ; https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/11/24/3038785/; https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/651116 ; https://x.com/IntelliTimes/status/1757355403334369695?s=20 ;
[54] https://x.com/SinaToossi/status/1757048432357675476?s=20
[55] https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-program-iaea-gross-israel-hamas-gaza-war-ee164aefb63a533548a54179c952b5e1
[56] https://www.ft.com/content/bee41860-7f39-42b6-9427-bfaea77d82ba
[57] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/01/world/middleeast/iran-us-war.html
[58] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-february-2-2024
[59] https://en.irna dot ir/news/85385668 ; https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/11/24/3039030/
[60] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-february-12-2024
[61] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/11/24/3038483
[62] https://en.irna dot ir/news/85385503
[63] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-december-20-2023#_edn408f074b5091db069985df4af9ad721358
[64] https://www.barrons.com/news/cyberattack-hits-iran-parliament-websites-state-media-25f1214c
[65] https://www.rferl.org/a/washington-drops-iranian-mek-from-terror-list/24723434.html