by Emily Anagnostos and the ISW Iraq Team
The Iraqi
Security Forces (ISF) and Popular Mobilization completed the encirclement of
Fallujah on June 5 after retaking Saqlawiyah on Fallujah’s western axis. The joint forces had recaptured Albu Shajal,
west of Fallujah, on June 1, and consolidated terrain south of Fallujah around
the Tuffah Bridge, likely as condition setting to retake the Fallujah Dam. The
ISF, without Popular Mobilization forces, began operations into Fallujah city
on June 6, when they surrounded the southern neighborhoods of Jubeil and Hayy
al-Shuhada. The ISF, spearheaded by efforts from the Counter Terrorism Service
(CTS), secured the first zone of Hayy al-Shuhada on June 8 and stormed the
second zone on June 9 where efforts are ongoing. ISIS likely no longer has
control over al-Zawiyah, to the south of Fallujah, given the establishment of a
humanitarian corridor through the area.
The
Popular Mobilization, however, may no longer be satisfied with simply securing
Fallujah’s environs and has begun to push for militia participation in
Fallujah’s city limits. Badr Organization leader Hadi al-Amiri announced on
June 4 a ten-day deadline for residents to leave Fallujah, citing civilian
presence as the biggest obstacle to retake the city. The U.N. nearly doubled
the estimate of civilians in Fallujah from 50,000 to 90,000 on June 8. The
deadline is set to expire on June 14, the two year anniversary of the Popular
Mobilization’s founding. Popular
Mobilization deputy chairman Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis amended Amiri’s statement on
June 5 saying that militias would enter the city “if needed” and entrusted the
city to the ISF’s command. Popular Mobilization spokesman Karim al-Nouri similarly
stated that entering Fallujah was not the Popular Mobilization’s “duty” and
that they would await Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi’s decision before
participating. However, the Popular Mobilization will continue to lobby for
permission to enter Fallujah, as Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) leader
Ammar al-Hakim stated on June 6 that the lack of participation of militias in
Fallujah was “unrealistic and illogical.” Sunni officials continue to push back
against the possibility of militia participation in Fallujah, and they have
demanded that militias withdraw from Fallujah amidst ongoing reports of human
rights violations against Fallujah residents fleeing the city. The Popular Mobilization has maintained that
they do not engage in “systemic” abuse in the area, however claims of Shi’a
militias “kidnapping, killing, and harassing” Sunni civilians, most recently in
Saqlawiyah following its recapture, continue to surface. The Iraqi Government
cannot guarantee its long-term stability as long as Sunni populations do not feel protected or represented
by their government and are possibly more inclined to welcome extremist
ideology.
