By Genevieve Casagrande
The tempo of Russian air
operations has dramatically escalated in Syria. The rate and breadth of Russian
airstrikes nearly tripled from May 29 – June 2 in comparison to the previous
five day period. ISW was able to assess a total of 29 Russian airstrikes with
low and high confidence beginning on May 29 and only 10 locations from May 24
-28. This escalation marks a dangerous shift in the Russian airstrike pattern
to levels only seen prior to the brokering of the Cessation
of Hostilities agreement in late February 2016. This expansion of the Russian
air campaign coincides with the further breakdown of Geneva negotiations, including
the resignation of Chief Opposition Negotiator Mohammad Alloush on May 30 due
to a reported lack of political progress and continued bombardment of civilians
in opposition-held terrain.
Russia is clearly demonstrating
its freedom of action in Syria. It has pivoted its air operations towards
mainstream elements of the armed opposition across Western Syria. An anonymous
U.S. intelligence official confirmed on June 3 that “Russia and [Syrian
President Bashar al-] Assad have “primarily
targeted the moderate opposition,” despite their
claims to the contrary. Russian air operations against the Syrian opposition expanded
beyond the targeting of critical frontlines in Aleppo and once again began to
target deep within opposition-held terrain in Idlib Province from May 30 – June
2. ISW was also able to assess two Russian airstrikes with low confidence in
Dera’a Province on May 31, marking the first assessed Russian strikes in the
province since February 25. The strikes targeted terrain largely held by factions
within the U.S.-backed Southern Front coalition. Russia also continued its
intense bombardment against the opposition in Aleppo in a likely condition
setting effort for the pro-regime encirclement of Aleppo City, targeting key
locations along the opposition’s last remaining supply route into the city.
ISW has changed its
assessment methodology regarding low- and high-confidence strikes since the
last publication of a Russian airstrikes map on May 28. Both the Russian
Ministry of Defense and Western officials have altered their patterns of
reporting on Russian air operations within recent weeks. ISW has therefore amended
the criteria for determining high-confidence reporting to rely more heavily on
key indicators of Russian airstrikes, rather than statements from Russian and
Western officials. Key indicators of strikes include precision, flight
patterns, and time of strikes as well as an examination of picture
intelligence.
The following graphic depicts
ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local
Syrian activist networks, statements by Russian and Western officials, and documentation
of Russian airstrikes through social media. This map represents locations
targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes
or sorties.
High-Confidence
reporting. ISW places high
confidence in reports corroborated by documentation from opposition
factions and activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be
credible that demonstrate a number of key indicators of Russian
airstrikes.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in reports corroborated only by multiple secondary sources, including from local Syrian activist networks deemed credible or Syrian state-run media.
