By Christopher Kozak
The Islamic State of Iraq and
al-Sham (ISIS) has mounted
a major offensive against opposition groups in Northern Aleppo Province
over the past week, threatening the total collapse of the last pocket of
opposition-held terrain along the Syrian-Turkish Border. ISIS seized at
least six villages in Northern Aleppo Province on May 27, besieging the
critical opposition stronghold of Mare’a
and entering the outskirts of the border town of Azaz.
ISIS later entered the town
of Mare’a on May 28 under the cover of up to nine Suicide Vehicle-Borne
Improved Explosive Device (SVBIED) detonations before withdrawing in the face
of heavy resistance from the opposition. Opposition groups successfully
recaptured several
villages
near Azaz in a counterattack on May 28 - 30, but the situation remains tenuous.
ISIS has launched near-continuous
attacks against Mare’a over the past week, while the Syrian Kurdish YPG assumed control over the
adjacent town of Sheikh
Issa on May 30 in exchange for the safe passage of more than 6,000
civilians from the town. Meanwhile, the UN Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) warned that the fighting has displaced
thousands of civilians in Northern Aleppo Province where over 160,000
civilians already live in temporary residences, informal settlements, or
humanitarian camps.
These gains by ISIS mark the
latest in a series of recent setbacks for the opposition in Northern Aleppo
Province. On April 7, the Hawar Kilis Operations Room – a coalition of opposition
groups backed by the U.S. and Turkey that includes fighters vetted by the U.S.
Department of Defense - captured the
ISIS-held town of Al-Rai in Northern Aleppo Province with the aid of
cross-border artillery fire and coalition airstrikes. The operation was part
of a wider offensive to clear ISIS from the Syrian-Turkish Border. The
rapid advance along the border nonetheless left opposition forces vulnerable to
an attack on their exposed southern flank. ISIS launched a two-pronged
counteroffensive on April 10 - 11, seizing
several villages near Azaz and recapturing the
town of Al-Rai – a key route for illegal smuggling of foreign fighters and
supplies. On April 14, ISIS mounted another attack that temporarily entrapped
opposition groups against the Syrian-Turkish Border after entering
four towns including Hawar
Kilis – the namesake of the Hawar Kilis Operations Room. The opposition
continued to suffer a steady erosion in terrain over subsequent weeks despite
continued coalition support and several effective local counterattacks against
ISIS.
The looming defeat of opposition
groups in Northern Aleppo Province poses a significant risk to the long-term
success of the anti-ISIS campaign. The U.S. and Turkey have provided varying
levels of support to opposition factions along the so-called ‘Mare’a Line’ as
part of a wider effort to isolate the ISIS stronghold of Ar-Raqqa City from the
Syrian-Turkish Border. Turkey has repeatedly called for the U.S. to increase
its support for Sunni Arab opposition groups in Northern Aleppo Province as an
alternative to deepening cooperation with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) –
a U.S.-backed coalition led by the Syrian Kurdish YPG, considered by Turkey
to be a terrorist organization due to its links with the Kurdistan Workers’
Party (PKK). The U.S. airdropped
ammunition
and other supplies to vetted opposition groups in Mare’a on June 2 in a
symbolic effort likely aimed at acknowledging these demands. The collapse of
the Mare’a Line will nonetheless foreclose this alternative and instead drive
the U.S. to deepen its current
overreliance on the Syrian Kurdish YPG – setting the conditions for
long-term ethnic conflict in the region and further limiting opportunities for
partnership with Sunni Arabs in Northern Syria as part of the anti-ISIS
campaign. In a reflection of this shift, the U.S. provided direct support to an
SDF-led
operation to seize the key cross-border transit hub of Manbij
in Eastern Aleppo Province that began on June 1 despite long-standing
reservations from Turkey regarding further Syrian Kurdish expansion along
its border. The start of this operation despite these political tensions indicates
that the U.S. may have already decided to abandon its support for Sunni Arabs
in Northern Aleppo Province in favor of the Syrian Kurds – sacrificing
long-term regional stability for short-term tactical gains against ISIS.
