By Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola
Key Takeaway: Russian air operations in Syria continue to pursue the preservation
of the Assad regime. Spokesman for Combined Joint Task Force Operation
Inherent Resolve Colonel Steve Warren
commented on Russia’s most recent statements regarding its operations
in Syria, stating that “Everything they are doing is to support Assad,
to keep Assad in power… Every time the Russians conduct an operation
that extends or helps extend Assad's hold on power is yet another day
that Syrian civilians will suffer under the boot of Bashar al-Assad.”
Russian airstrikes largely targeted rebel-held terrain in Aleppo,
Idlib, and Hama Provinces from November 30 to December 2. Russian
warplanes concentrated in the northern Aleppo countryside, primarily
striking targets along a key rebel-held ground line of communication
(GLOC) necessary for the delivery of Turkish support into Aleppo City.
This rebel supply line remains highly vulnerable as ISIS continues to advance
in the area, capitalizing on the intensity of the Russian strikes. ISIS
seized at least four villages east of the strategic border town of Azaz
on December 2, bringing ISIS within six miles of the supply route.
Meanwhile, regime forces supported by Iranian-backed proxy forces and
Russian airstrikes continue to fix Syrian opposition fighters south of
Aleppo City, likely hindering large-scale reinforcements from bolstering
the northern rebel frontline against ISIS. The Syrian regime and ISIS
have historically leveraged each other’s offensives in order to advance
against rebel forces in the north of Aleppo City. Russian airstrikes,
regime ground operations, and the most recent ISIS offensive threaten to
incur major losses for rebel forces in Aleppo.
Russian airstrikes continue to punish local Syrian populations
through the targeting of key civilian infrastructure in rebel-held
territory. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) released a video claiming to strike
an “oil storage” facility on December 2. However, analysis by
investigative journalists confirmed that the strike had in fact hit a water treatment facility
located in eastern Aleppo. The strike reportedly produced significant
damage to the facility and more than 1.4 million people in rural Aleppo
suffered interruptions in their water supply as a result. Further analysis of Russian MoD strike footage as well as local activists reporting revealed that Russian airstrikes also targeted grain silos in the countryside of Idlib and Aleppo.
The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike
and cruise missile locations based on reports from local Syrian activist
networks, Syrian state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western
officials. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties.
High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.
High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.
