By Dan Urchick and Christopher Kozak
Russia
reportedly plans to bolster its military presence in central Syria by deploying
fixed-wing aircraft and ground support personnel to the Shayrat Military
Airbase, according to an anonymous U.S. official. Shayrat Airbase is
located twenty-five kilometers southeast of Homs City. The deployment of
Russian warplanes to Shayrat Airbase would mark the first deployment of Russian
fixed-wing assets outside of its established airbase at the Bassel al-Assad
International Airport in Latakia Province. Russia previously deployed
helicopter gunships to the facility in early November in response to
advances by ISIS which threatened the strategic M5 Highway connecting Damascus
to Homs City. Unconfirmed reports indicate that Russian engineers at Shayrat
Airbase are working to complete a secondary
air strip at least
three kilometers long in order to prevent hostile indirect fire from limiting
air operations. Syrian activists had reported in late October that the Syrian
regime redeployed all of its aircraft away from Shayrat Airbase in order to
conduct repairs and
rehabilitation on the runway. The same unconfirmed reports suggested that
the current Russian military contingent in Syria could rise to over one hundred
aircraft accompanied by an additional one thousand Russian troops to engage in
“selective kinetic engagements” and protect the new base.
Russia
likely intends to leverage its forces at Shayrat Airbase to support ongoing
ground offensives by the Syrian regime which aim to recapture the ISIS-held
cities of Qaryatayn and Palmyra in eastern Homs Province. ISIS seized both
cities in mid-2015 as part of a westward advance which threatened core regime
terrain along the Syrian ‘central corridor’. ISIS advanced westward from
Quryatayn on November 1, seizing
the nearby town of Mahin and threatening to sever the primary ground line
of communication between Damascus and the Syrian Coast. Pro-regime forces
supported by Hezbollah later recaptured
Mahin on November 23 with Russian support. Televised Russian military
briefings revealed that Russia deployed at least four
Mi-24 ‘Hind’ helicopter gunships and six
152mm towed howitzers to Shayrat Airbase in support of the regime
offensive. Meanwhile, pro-regime forces have also advanced to within four
kilometers of Palmyra and its historic ruins. The forward deployment of
fixed wing aircraft to Homs Province would position Russia to provide direct
support to the ongoing offensive operations against Qaryatayn and Palmyra in
the face of heavy ISIS resistance.
The deployment would also enable Russian warplanes to respond immediately to
any coordinated ISIS pressure against the strategic T4 (Tiyas) Airbase along
the highway between Homs City and Palmyra. Russia ultimately aims to preserve
the stability of the Syrian regime by bolstering its eastern flank against the
threat posed by ISIS to Damascus and Homs City.
