by Patrick Martin
The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) reportedly recaptured the
government complex in central Ramadi on December 28 after clearing ISIS-held
areas south of the complex on December 26 and 27. The ISF also reported that
the 10th Iraqi Army Division and units attached to it recaptured the
Ramadi Barrage in western Ramadi on December 26. ISW is thus changing the
status of these areas to “Contested.” ISIS likely can no longer field a
cohesive military defense in Ramadi and its main elements have likely retreated
to the ISIS-held eastern suburbs of the city, such as the areas of al-Sufiyah
and al-Sijariyah.
The ISF has not yet cleared Ramadi of ISIS, however. The ISF has
not yet reported entering, contesting, or clearing certain structures such as
the Justice Palace and the Grand Mosque, and ISW has therefore left some areas
in downtown Ramadi marked as “ISIS controlled.” The ISF likewise have not entered a number of
neighborhoods in northern Ramadi, IEDs remain emplaced throughout the city, and
there are possibly pockets of resistance from remaining ISIS fighters. Clearing
operations are still required both in the city center and in Ramadi’s environs.
The ISF continue to conduct clearing operations in areas north of the city
center, while operations are still required to clear ISIS pockets from the
areas between Ramadi and the Habaniya base, east of Ramadi. ISW therefore assesses
that Ramadi remains contested, though with a heavy ISF presence that has the
initiative and momentum. Defense
Secretary Ashton Carter’s congratulation to Iraq on recapturing the city,
however, indicates that the full clearance of the city is within the ISF’s
grasp.
Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared that the ISF’s next
objective will be recapturing Mosul. It will be extremely difficult for the ISF
to clear Mosul successfully in the near future, however. The Mosul
counteroffensive requires large forces to succeed. It also requires adjudication among the competing
interests of the Iraqi government, the Peshmerga, Sunni politicians, and
Iranian proxy groups, all of whom have interests in the composition of the
forces that recapture Mosul. ISF deployment away from Ramadi in order to set
conditions for Mosul operations would likely reduce the forces available to
secure Ramadi and its environs, creating opportunities for ISIS. ISIS will
continue launching attacks both on Ramadi and along the Euphrates River Valley,
while also conducting spectacular and localized attacks along the Tigris River
and in Diyala Province in order to divert the ISF’s resources and attention.
