Andie Parry, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, Ria Reddy, Siddhant Kishore, and Nicholas Carl
Key Takeaways:
- Syria: HTS leader Ahmed al Shara detailed a three-to-four-year timeline for building a new Syrian state, during which he presumably would rule and could heavily influence the allocation of political power.
- Syria: The HTS-led interim government is negotiating with the US-backed SDF to integrate it politically and militarily into the future Syrian state. It is unclear whether such integration would involve re-flagging SDF units or dispersing SDF members across the new Syrian armed forces.
- Iran: Baloch Salafi-jihadi militia Ansar al Furqan claimed a suicide bombing targeting the head of political intelligence in Bandar Lengeh in southern Iran. The attack is notably deep into Iran given that most Baloch militancy in Iran occurs around the border with Pakistan.
Gaza Strip:
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
- Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel
A Palestinian Authority (PA) spokesperson reported that Palestinian fighters killed a journalist in Jenin refugee camp on December 29.[48] Palestinian militias, including Hamas, blamed the PA for “directly targeting” the journalist in Jenin refugee camp.[49] The PA stated that its forces were not present in the area at the time of the journalist’s death.[50] CTP-ISW has not observed PA activity in Jenin refugee camp since December 26.[51]
Northern Israel and Lebanon
Lebanese Hezbollah objectives:
- End Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip
- Survive the October 7 War as a capable political and military organization with control over Lebanon
CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.
[1] https://www.alarabiya dot net/arab-and-world/syria/2024/12/29/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D8%B1%D8%B9-%D9%84%D9%85-%D8%A3%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%B1-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%B8%D9%8A%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%82%D8%AF-%D9%8A%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%BA%D8%B1%D9%82-4-%D8%B3%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AA-
[2] https://www.alarabiya dot net/arab-and-world/syria/2024/12/29/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D8%B1%D8%B9-%D9%84%D9%85-%D8%A3%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%B1-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%B8%D9%8A%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%82%D8%AF-%D9%8A%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%BA%D8%B1%D9%82-4-%D8%B3%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AA-
[3] https://www.alarabiya dot net/arab-and-world/syria/2024/12/29/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D8%B1%D8%B9-%D9%84%D9%85-%D8%A3%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%B1-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%B8%D9%8A%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%82%D8%AF-%D9%8A%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%BA%D8%B1%D9%82-4-%D8%B3%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AA-
[4] https://www.alarabiya dot net/arab-and-world/syria/2024/12/29/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D8%B1%D8%B9-%D9%84%D9%85-%D8%A3%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%B1-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%B8%D9%8A%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%82%D8%AF-%D9%8A%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%BA%D8%B1%D9%82-4-%D8%B3%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AA-
[5] https://www.alarabiya dot net/arab-and-world/syria/2024/12/29/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D8%B1%D8%B9-%D9%84%D9%85-%D8%A3%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%B1-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%B8%D9%8A%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%82%D8%AF-%D9%8A%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%BA%D8%B1%D9%82-4-%D8%B3%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AA-
[6] https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/06/middleeast/syria-rebel-forces-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-al-jolani-intl-latam/index.html ; https://isw.pub/IranUpdate122424 ; https://isw.pub/IranUpdate122124
[7] https://x.com/SOHEB2019/status/1873306221702472156 ; https://t.me/damascusv011/27092 ; https://www.alarabiya dot net/arab-and-world/syria/2024/12/29/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D8%B1%D8%B9-%D9%84%D9%85-%D8%A3%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%B1-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%B8%D9%8A%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%82%D8%AF-%D9%8A%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%BA%D8%B1%D9%82-4-%D8%B3%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AA-
[8] https://t.me/damascusv011/27092
[9] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-19-2024
[10] https://t.me/damascusv011/27091
[11] https://t.me/G_CSyriaa/116
[12] https://x.com/thiqanewsagency/status/1873310615844126936 ; https://x.com/fehimisa1/status/1873322965095596131?s=46&t=EGYcIyXosW6lVJmixq2r5Q ; https://x.com/Kalmuqdad/status/1808912082064322760
[13] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-18-2024 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-21-2024
[14] https://x.com/SiyamandAli/status/1873361863251239134
[15] https://x.com/SOHEB2019/status/1873318316447789343 ; https://x.com/SOHEB2019/status/1873359036823093377 ; https://x.com/SOHEB2019/status/1873370931885990238
[16] https://x.com/SOHEB2019/status/1873373148948869429 ; https://x.com/SOHEB2019/status/1873320075190821342 ; https://t.me/AbomosaabSharkea/131359 ; https://t.me/AbomosaabSharkea/131334
[17] https://shaam dot org/news/syria-news/%D8%A8%D9%8A%D9%86%D9%87%D9%85-%D9%88%D8%B2%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%86-%D8%B9%D9%86-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%82%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AC%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A ; https://x.com/Al7khalidi/status/1873410734346178715
[18] https://t.me/G_CSyriaa/116
[19] https://t.me/ab_fdk/913
[20] https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid02t9QtaUJKntHjv3daZgYoiWak2BYyn9ijRsX8qLjoSQikyTn255YuPDHhSzYxApXnl&id=100064347242481 ; https://shafaq dot com/en/Iraq/ISIS-targets-the-Iraqi-army-and-PMF-in-Al-Anbar-and-Baghdad
[21] https://t.me/ab_fdk/903 ;
https://thecradle dot co/articles-id/26238
[22] https://thecradle dot co/articles-id/26238
[23] https://t.me/ab_fdk/903 ;
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/leadership-and-purpose-iraq%E2%80%99s-popular-mobilization-forces
[24] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/leadership-and-purpose-iraq%E2%80%99s-popular-mobilization-forces
[25] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/leadership-and-purpose-iraq%E2%80%99s-popular-mobilization-forces
[26] https://www.counterextremism.com/extremists/abu-fadak-al-mohammedawi-aka-abd-al-aziz-malluh-mirjirash-al-muhammadawi
[27] https://t.me/Ansarulfurqan8/142 ; https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/10/09/3228182
[28] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/10/09/3228182
[29] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-blast-arrests-idUSKBN1O8095/
[30] https://t dot co/FRQZHtQj4R
[31] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/soldier-killed-in-northern-gaza-idf-says/
[32] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-28-2024
[33] https://t.me/sarayaps/19002 ;
https://t.me/sarayaps/19003
[34] https://alqassam dot ps/arabic/%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%BA%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%85/8379/%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%85-%D9%86%D9%82%D8%B7%D8%A9-%D8%B9%D8%B3%D9%83%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%B5%D9%87%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B4%D8%AA%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%83-%D9%85%D8%B9-%D8%AC%D9%86%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%AF%D9%88-%D9%88%D8%A5%D9%8A%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%B9%D9%87%D9%85-%D8%A8%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%8A%D9%84-%D9%88%D8%AC%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%AD-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B7%D9%82%D8%A9-%D8%A3%D8%A8%D9%88-%D8%B5%D9%81%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82-%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%B3%D9%83%D8%B1-%D8%AC%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A7 ; https://alqassam dot ps/arabic/%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%BA%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%85/8380/%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%81-%D8%AF%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A9-%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%87-%D8%A8%D8%B9%D8%A8%D9%88%D8%A9-%D8%B4%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%81%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D9%88%D9%82%D9%88%D8%A9-%D8%A5%D9%86%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%B0-%D8%A8%D9%82%D8%B0%D9%8A%D9%81%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%86-105-%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82-%D8%AC%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%84%D8%AF ; https://t.me/nedalps/4596 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/19000
[35] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1873262896832233705
[36] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1873263675466781173
[37] https://x.com/BenTzionMacales/status/1873363077820760531
[38] https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1873019816950260170
[39] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1873383167110860986
[40] https://www.idf dot il/260759
[41] https://t.me/moriahdoron/17847
[42] https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1873389368125046808
[43] https://t.me/moriahdoron/17845
[44] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1873379919352467469
[45] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1873322266534334524
[46] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1873322266534334524
[47] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/seven-killed-israeli-strike-hospital-gaza-palestinian-civil-defence-says-2024-12-29/
[48] https://t.me/moriahdoron/17836
[49] https://hamasinfo dot info/2024/12/29/4925/ ; https://t.me/alwya2000/7228
[50] https://t.me/moriahdoron/17836
[51] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-26-2024
[52] https://x.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1873272846480228820
[53] https://x.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1873272846480228820
[54] https://x.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1873272846480228820 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-15-2024
[55] https://x.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1873272846480228820 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-15-2024
[56] https://x.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1873272846480228820 ; https://x.com/GLZRadio/status/1873267414345105542
[57] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-14-2024
[58] https://t.me/alichoeib1970/12922
[59] https://t.me/bintjbeilnews/125936 ; https://t.me/alichoeib1970/12922
[60] https://t.me/bintjbeilnews/125935
[61] https://t.me/channelnabatieh/110261 ; https://t.me/channelnabatieh/110216 ; https://t.me/alichoeib1970/12923
[62] https://t.me/channelnabatieh/110217
[63] https://x.com/army21ye/status/1873057853399011750
[64] https://x.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/1873366014764941663
[65] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/21/world/middleeast/iran-economy-energy-crisis.html
[66] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-23-2024
[67] https://www.mizanonline dot ir/fa/news/4810965