Kelly Campa, Andie Parry, Alexandra Braverman, Kathryn Tyson, Katherine Wells, Carolyn Moorman, Ria Reddy, Johanna Moore, and Nicholas Carl
- Israeli forces being already stretched by militia activity in the Gaza Strip and West Bank;
- The threat of an Iranian attack on Israel in retaliation for Israel killing Ismail Haniyeh;
- Internal divisions within the Israeli government; and
- The United States opposing an all-out war ahead of its presidential election.
Iran using Emad missiles in another attack on Israel would increase the risk of an all-out war erupting against Israel and even the United States. The inaccuracy of these missiles would risk causing severe collateral damage, including civilian casualties, even if Iran does not intentionally target civilian areas in Israel.[23] Iranian military commanders have reportedly considered attacking military targets around Haifa and Tel Aviv, where the risk of harming civilians would be particularly high given the population density.[24]
Key Takeaways:
- Israel-Hamas ceasefire-hostage negotiations: Hamas has continued to exploit Israeli hostages in an information operation to increase pressure on Israel to accept a ceasefire-hostage agreement. Hamas likely calculates that this effort could create more favorable terms for Hamas in such an agreement.
- Gaza Strip: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended and reiterated his plans for a continued Israeli military presence along the Philadelphi Corridor that separates Egypt from the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu said that controlling the corridor is central to Israeli war aims and that withdrawing from the corridor would make it hard for Israel to ever return.
- Lebanon: An IRGC-affiliated outlet published an analytical report examining possible trajectories for fighting between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah. The report concluded that Israel is unlikely to launch a major military offensive into Lebanon for several reasons, including the imminent threat of an Iranian attack on Israel.
- Iran: Some of the missiles that Iran fired in its large-scale attack on Israel in April 2024 were much less accurate than previously understood. Iran using such missiles in another attack on Israel would increase the risk of an all-out war erupting against Israel and even the United States.
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
- Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Deter Israel from conducting a ground operation into Lebanon
- Prepare for an expanded and protracted conflict with Israel in the near term
- Expel the United States from Syria
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei approved a recommendation by the Supreme Economic Coordination Council (SECC) to reallocate around 5.8 billion US dollars from the National Development Fund (NDF) to settle public debts to wheat farmers and truck drivers on September 1.[65] The SECC is chaired by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei. The SECC added that it will cut the NDF share of Iranian energy revenues from 40 percent to 20 percent by March 2025 to provide the government the funds it needs to manage economic crises. The NDF is a sovereign wealth fund established in 2010 to use Iranian energy revenues for ”productive investments” and to save these financial resources for future generations.[66] This proposal was reportedly presented by Pezeshkian to the rest of the SECC. It is noteworthy that the SECC was able to agree this major new policy so soon after Pezeshkian took office in July 2024, given the SECC’s historic issues with arriving at a consensus. Pezeshkian was similarly able to work with Ghalibaf to approve all of the presidential cabinet nominees on the first try, marking the first time that Parliament has done so since 2001.[67]
[1] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/3070
[2] https://t.me/hamasps/20227
[3] https://t.me/hamasps/20227 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-8-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-10-2024
[4] https://t.me/hamasps/20227; https://t.me/hamasps/20229; https://t.me/hamasps/20228; https://t.me/hamasps/20231
[5] https://www.aljazeera dot net/news/2024/9/2/Øماس-للجزيرة-كل-اشتراطات-نتنياهو
[6] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-8-2024
[7] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-says-israel-must-control-philadelphi-corridor-gaza-2024-09-02 ; https://www.ynet dot co.il/news/article/hkxxgpmn0
[8] https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-news-09-02-2024-f8a8c85f8947631a7f3039e087dd3904; https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/09/01/world/hostages-strike-israel-gaza-war?smid=url-share#israel-hamas-gaza-american-hostages; https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/01/middleeast/israel-hostage-protests-strike-netanyahu-intl-latam/index.html#:~:text=From%20bustling%20Tel%20Aviv%20to%20the%20southern%20Israeli%20city%20of
[9] https://www.ynet dot co.il/news/article/hkxxgpmn0
[10] https://www.ynet dot co.il/news/article/hkxxgpmn0
[11] https://www.ynet dot co.il/news/article/hkxxgpmn0
[12] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-says-israel-must-control-philadelphi-corridor-gaza-2024-09-02 ; https://www.ynet dot co.il/news/article/hkxxgpmn0
[13] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/us-says-israel-agreed-to-withdraw-from-parts-of-philadelphi-route-mum-on-details; https://www.newsweek.com/us-contradicts-netanyahu-key-issue-heart-gaza-ceasefire-dispute-1948198
[14] https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/us-says-israel-agreed-to-withdraw-from-parts-of-philadelphi-route-mum-on-details; https://www.newsweek.com/us-contradicts-netanyahu-key-issue-heart-gaza-ceasefire-dispute-1948198
[15] https://www.axios.com/2024/08/23/biden-netanyahu-israeli-forces-withdraw-gaza-egypt
[16] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/06/12/3151982
[17] https://peacemaker.un.org/israellebanon-resolution1701 ; https://www dot haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-06-28/ty-article/.premium/defense-minister-gallant-in-northern-israel-not-looking-for-war-but-ready-for-one/00000190-6062-d499-a5bf-e9fef9b80000
[18] https://www dot aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/29/iran-warns-israel-of-obliterating-war-if-it-attacks-lebanon
[19] https://apnews.com/article/iran-ballistic-missiles-israel-retaliation-gaza-war-edccddf7a871b78cd5528e265e1e7317 ; https://apnews.com/article/iran-ballistic-missiles-israel-retaliation-gaza-war-takeaways-9b577a3c3da0ee970f01b5e4f2aa20dc
[20] https://apnews.com/article/iran-ballistic-missiles-israel-retaliation-gaza-war-takeaways-9b577a3c3da0ee970f01b5e4f2aa20dc ; https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/emad/
[21] https://apnews.com/article/iran-ballistic-missiles-israel-retaliation-gaza-war-edccddf7a871b78cd5528e265e1e7317 ; https://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/11/middleeast/iran-ballistic-missile-test/
[22] https://apnews.com/article/iran-ballistic-missiles-israel-retaliation-gaza-war-takeaways-9b577a3c3da0ee970f01b5e4f2aa20dc ; https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/17/iran-israel-attack-drones-missiles/
[23] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-1-2024
[24] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/31/world/middleeast/iran-orders-attack-israel.html
[25] https://x.com/UNRWA/status/1831018293702074448 ; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-attacks-gaza-kill-33-palestinians-pauses-allow-third-day-polio-2024-09-03/
[26] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/28/israel-polio-pause-gaza/ ; https://t.me/moriahdoron/13451
[27] https://x.com/cogatonline/status/1829950409051402566
[28] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/who-says-its-ahead-of-polio-vaccination-targets-for-gaza-children
[29] https://x.com/cogatonline/status/1829950409051402566
[30] https://t.me/hamza20300/289739 ; https://t.me/hamza20300/289936;
[31] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1829796890445046038
[32] https://t.me/moriahdoron/13465?single
[33] www dot idf.il/227923 ; https://t.me/moriahdoron/13465?single; https://x.com/GLZRadio/status/1830909153109238255
[34] www dot idf.il/227923 ; https://t.me/moriahdoron/13465?single
[35] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1830949233186283527; https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1830954819772686826
[36] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1830949236160045073; https://t.me/hamza20300/289818 ; https://x.com/adler_zvi/status/1830974514991407597
[37] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1830949236160045073
[38] https://t.me/hamza20300/289818
[39] https://t.me/pflpgaza1/14548
[40] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1830858508243206576; https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1830862633375002938; https://x.com/BenTzionMacales/status/1831024751986479512
[41] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1830858511175041492
[42] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1830862633375002938
[43] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1830858511175041492
[44] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1830858517172871412
[45] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7414
[46] https://t.me/sarayatulkarm/626; https://t.me/sarayatulkarm/627; https://t.me/sarayatulkarm/628; https://t.me/sarayatulkarm/629; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/3068; https://t.me/sarayatulkarm/630; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7399; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7400; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7403; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7404; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7405; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7407; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7408; https://t.me/khalaya_almujahidin/14889; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7412; https://t.me/sarayajneen/1544; https://t.me/sarayajneen/1545
[47] https://t.me/sarayatulkarm/626; https://t.me/sarayatulkarm/627; https://t.me/sarayatulkarm/628; https://t.me/sarayatulkarm/629; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/3068; https://t.me/sarayatulkarm/630; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7399; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7405; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7408; https://t.me/khalaya_almujahidin/14889; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7412
[48] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1830710325861298566 ; https://x.com/GLZRadio/status/1830710627649630389
[49] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7415
[50] https://t.me/hamaswestbank/53297; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-august-28-2024
[51] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1830957568753050014; https://t.me/mmirleb/6560; https://t.me/mmirleb/6562; https://t.me/mmirleb/6564; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1830986896492871950; https://t.me/mmirleb/6566; https://t.me/mmirleb/6568; https://t.me/mmirleb/6570; https://t.me/mmirleb/6571; https://t.me/mmirleb/6574
[52] https://www.al-akhbar dot com/Iraq/386359/%D9%87%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%85-%D9%83%D9%88%D9%86%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%88-%D9%8A%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B1-%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B4%D9%86%D8%B7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%AC%D9%86%D9%88%D8%AF%D9%83%D9%85-%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B9-%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%AA ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-12-2024; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-13-2024; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-14-2024
[53] https://www.al-akhbar dot com/Iraq/386359/%D9%87%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%85-%D9%83%D9%88%D9%86%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%88-%D9%8A%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B1-%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B4%D9%86%D8%B7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%AC%D9%86%D9%88%D8%AF%D9%83%D9%85-%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B9-%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%AA
https://www.inherentresolve.mil/NEWSROOM/News-Articles/Stories-Display/Article/3857483/live-fire-exercises-in-syria-for-august/; https://eyeofeuphrates dot om/ar/news/2024/08/30/11847; https://x.com/SAMSyria0/status/1829235332971393404
[54] https://www.al-akhbar dot com/Iraq/386359/%D9%87%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%85-%D9%83%D9%88%D9%86%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%88-%D9%8A%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B1-%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B4%D9%86%D8%B7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%AC%D9%86%D9%88%D8%AF%D9%83%D9%85-%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B9-%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%AA
[55] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-12-2024; https://www.al-akhbar dot com/Palestine/385522/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D9%85%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%87%D8%A9%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%8A%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA%D8%B9%D8%B3%D9%83%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AC%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF
[56] https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/profile-ashab-al-kahf; https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/facade-group-linked-iran-claims-five-attacks-americans-iraq-and-syria
[57] https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/tracking-anti-us-and-anti-israel-strikes-iraq-and-syria-during-gaza-crisis; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-31-2024; https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/national-international/us-strikes-iran-backed-militias-in-iraq-after-series-of-attacks-on-american-forces/3524364/; https://abcnews.go.com/International/us-carries-defensive-airstrike-iraq-officials/story?id=112424050
[58] https://www.isna dot ir/news/1403061308008/
[59] https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1830773134863040955
[60] https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1830724908583719088;
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-september-2-2024
[61] https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1830724908583719088 ;
https://x.com/UK_MTO/status/1830640602738004256
[62] https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1830724908583719088;
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/british-maritime-agencies-report-attacks-off-yemens-coast-2024-09-02/
[63] https://x.com/ameenhayan/status/1830690113032200308
[64] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-03/us-says-houthis-hit-saudi-ship-but-bahri-says-wasn-t-targeted?sref=RR1m1tD8;
https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/tankers/bahri-denies-vlcc-amjad-was-hit-houthis
[65]
https://www.khabaronline dot ir/news/1952312/ ; https://www.iranintl dot com/en/202409016333
[66] https://en.ndf dot ir/
[67] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-august-21-2024#_edn1ff2adab78e74a89270b37ca9d19675216