Andie Parry, Annika Ganzeveld, Katherine Wells, and Brian Carter
Information Cutoff: 2:00pm ET
The
Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored
activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US
forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the
stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical
Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly
based on regional events. Click here
to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This
map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
CTP-ISW
defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that
Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came
to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state,
semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their
collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the
alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels
of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some
degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional
proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others
are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of
the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives,
which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from
the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these
objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have
become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.
We
do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are
well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military
operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn
violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and
crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these
reports.
A senior Islamic Revolutionary
Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force commander reiterated Iran’s support for
Hamas’ maximalist ceasefire demands on September 1.[1] IRGC
Quds Force Coordination Deputy Brigadier General Eraj Masjedi expressed
support for Hamas’ maximalist demands, which include a permanent
ceasefire, the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza
Strip, and a hostage-for-prisoner exchange.[2]
Masjedi stated that Hamas will continue to fight Israel unless Israel
accepts its demands. Accepting Hamas’ maximalist demands would prevent
Israel from being able to achieve its stated war aim of destroying Hamas
as a military organization and governing authority. Israel’s acceptance
of Hamas’ demand for a complete Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdrawal
from the Gaza Strip, for example, would mean that the IDF could no
longer operate along the Philadelphi Corridor. Maintaining Israeli
control of the Philadelphi Corridor would help prevent Hamas and other
Palestinian militias from rebuilding their capabilities quickly by
interdicting major smuggling operations into the Gaza Strip that would
accelerate Hamas’ ability to resupply itself, as CTP-ISW has previously
argued.[3]
IRGC-affiliated
media indicated on August 31 that some elements of the Iranian regime
are likely continuing to try to delay a retaliatory strike on Israel
until the ongoing ceasefire-hostage negotiations conclude. Basirat
claimed that Iran’s response to Israel killing Hamas Political Bureau
Chairman Ismail Haniyeh will be “strong, decisive, and deterrent,” but
noted that Iran does not seek to derail the ongoing ceasefire talks.[4]
International mediators, including Qatar, have kept Iranian officials
apprised of negotiation progress since the latest round of negotiations
started in Doha in mid-August 2024.[5]
Unspecified Iranian officials previously told Western media on August
13 that Iran will "delay” its attack on Israel if Israel and Hamas
conclude a ceasefire-hostage agreement.[6]
Lebanese
Hezbollah Representative to Iran Abdallah Safi al Din met with Iranian
Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi in Iran on September 1.[7]
The Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry reported that Safi al Din and
Araghchi discussed the “latest situation of the anti-Israel front in
Lebanon.”[8]
Safi al Din and Araghchi likely discussed the Hezbollah drone and
rocket attack targeting Israel in some capacity, though neither official
would be responsible for planning or executing military operations
against Israel. The United States sanctioned Safi al Din in May 2018 for
acting as a conduit between Iran and Hezbollah and serving as an
interlocutor between Iran and Hezbollah on financial issues.[9]
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) recovered the bodies of six Israeli hostages from a tunnel in Rafah on September 1.[10] Israeli security sources said that Hamas executed the hostages two to three days before the hostages were found and recovered.[11] An IDF spokesperson said that the hostages were executed by Hamas guards "shortly before IDF forces reached them.”[12]
The Israeli forces did not encounter Palestinian fighters inside or
near the tunnels while discovering and recovering the hostages.[13] The IDF located the hostages one kilometer away from where they rescued living hostage Farhan al Qadi on August 27.[14]
IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, IDF Southern
Command commander Major General Yaron Finkelman, and hostage talks
negotiator Major General (res.) Nitzan Alon visited the recovery site in
Rafah on September 1.[15]
Hamas
blamed Israel for the hostage’s death and recovery, claiming that
Israel is ultimately responsible for the deaths by failing to agree to a
ceasefire.[16] Hamas did not deny killing the hostages but attempted to shift overall blame to Netanyahu and the United States.[17]
Netanyahu's statement blamed Hamas for continuing to “firmly refuse any
[ceasefire-hostage deal] offer” and said that the execution of the
hostages demonstrates Hamas does not want a deal.[18]
Israeli security sources speaking to state-funded, IDF-supported
Israeli Army Radio, said that the three of the hostages were supposed to
be released in the first stage of a ceasefire-hostage deal.[19]
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant criticized the August 29 decision
by Israeli’s political-security cabinet to back Netanyahu’s proposal to
maintain and IDF presence on the Philadelphi Corridor—a major hurdle in
a ceasefire-hostage deal—in response to the execution of the six
hostages.[20]
An Israeli Army Radio correspondent said that the hostages were likely
executed around the time the security cabinet approved retaining an IDF
presence on the Egypt-Gaza Strip border on August 29.[21]
Key Takeaways:
Gaza Strip
Axis of Resistance objectives:
A
humanitarian pause began September 1 in the central Gaza Strip to
enable humanitarian aid groups to start a mass polio vaccination
campaign. Humanitarian aid groups will administer the vaccines
to Gazan children over three days during nine-hour humanitarian pauses
in the central Gaza Strip.[22] Israel will also conduct three day pauses in designated areas of the southern and northern Gaza Strip from September 4 to 9.[23] The IDF agreed on August 29 to pause military operations in designated areas from 0600 to 1500 local time.[24]
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) spokesperson Louise
Wateridge said that the first day of the campaign had seen
higher-than-expected turnout and did not encounter major hurdles.[25]
The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office has emphasized that the pause is
not related to the longer-term ceasefire proposal currently under
discussion in Doha.[26]
The IDF continued to conduct limited military operations in the Gaza Strip during the humanitarian pause. The IDF Air Force struck Safed school in Gaza City that Hamas used as a command-and-control site on September 1.[27] The IDF said that Hamas has planned and conducted attacks from the school.[28]
Local Palestinian sources reported small arms fire and shelling south
of Gaza City on September 1, suggesting Israeli clearing operations have
continued in the northern Gaza Strip.[29]
Palestinian
militias conducted at least three rocket attacks targeting Israeli
forces near the Netzarim Corridor, south of Gaza City.[30] Palestinian fighters also mortared Israeli forces north of the corridor in Zaytoun, southern Gaza City.[31] The IDF 252nd Division operated in Gaza City on August 31.[32]
Hamas
and the Popular Resistance Committees targeted an Israeli military
bulldozer with a tandem charged rocket-propelled grenade in a combined
attack in Tal al Sultan, Rafah, on August 31.[33] The IDF 162nd Division operated in Rafah on August 31, including to recover the bodies of six Israeli hostages.[34]
The al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades fired rockets at an IDF site in southern Israel east of the Netzarim Corridor.[35]
Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.
West Bank
Axis of Resistance objectives:
A Palestinian fighter shot and killed three Israeli police officers in a vehicle near Hebron on September 1.[36] The Palestinian fighter shot at a police car on Route 35 between Tarqumiyah and Idhna.[37]
The lone Palestinian fighter was associated with Fatah and had
previously served in the Palestinian Authority’s Presidential Guard.[38] IDF Duvdevan Commandos found and killed the perpetrator hours after the attack in Hebron.[39] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades fired small arms at Israeli forces entering Hebron to search for the preparator.[40]
Several Palestinian militias, including Hamas, praised the operation
and called for additional attacks on Israeli civilians and military
targets in the West Bank.[41]
Hamas called the attack a “natural response” to the ongoing major
Israeli counter-terrorism operations in the northern West Bank and
Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip.[42]
The
IDF continued raids in Jenin for the sixth consecutive day as part of
the IDF effort to degrade Palestinian militia networks in the West Bank.
Israeli forces engaged Palestinian militias in at least ten areas of
Jenin Governorate, mostly concentrated in Jenin City and refugee camp.[43]
The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades and Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s Jenin
battalions targeted Israeli forces with small arms and improvised
explosive devices.[44] Palestinian fighters killed one IDF Bislamach Brigade soldier and wounded three others in Jenin on August 31.[45]
The IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi visited Jenin to
assess the ongoing operation on August 31 and stated the IDF’s
”offensive” in militia stronghold like Jenin is essential to stopping
attacks in the West Bank.[46]
This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.
Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights
Axis of Resistance objectives:
Lebanese Hezbollah conducted at least 11 attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on August 31.[47] Lebanese
Hezbollah wounded three Israelis with an anti-tank guided missile at
Kfar Yuval checkpoint, Upper Galilee, northern Israel, on September 1.[48]
Iran and Axis of Resistance
US
Central Command (CENTCOM) destroyed a Houthi drone and unmanned surface
vessel (USV) in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen on August 31.[49] CENTCOM
determined that these Houthi systems presented a clear and imminent
threat to US and coalition forces and merchant vessels in the region.
[1] https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/688189
[2] https://defapress dot ir/fa/news/688189;
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-7-2024
[3] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-22-2024
[4] https://basirat dot ir/fa/news/364545
[5] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-22-2024
[6] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/only-gaza-ceasefire-can-delay-irans-israel-response-sources-say-2024-08-13/
[7] https://mfa dot ir/portal/NewsView/752668
[8] https://mfa dot ir/portal/NewsView/752668
[9] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm0388
[10] https://twitter.com/IDFSpokesperson/status/1830096243516670269
[11] https://twitter.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1830192806884728887 ;
[12] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/bodies-of-6-hostages-murdered-by-hamas-just-days-earlier-found-in-rafah-idf/
[13] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1830094884780265837 ; https://t.me/moriahdoron/13388
[14] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1830094884780265837
[15] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1830274849635479999
[16] https://t.me/hamaswestbank/53251; https://t.me/hamaswestbank/53256
[17] https://t.me/hamaswestbank/53251 ; https://t.me/hamaswestbank/53256
[18] https://t.me/moriahdoron/13414
[19] https://t.me/moriahdoron/13402
[20] https://x.com/yoavgallant/status/1830134072166797486
[21] https://twitter.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1830192806884728887
[22] https://x.com/cogatonline/status/1829950409051402566
[23] https://x.com/cogatonline/status/1829950409051402566
[24] https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/08/29/world/israel-hamas-gaza-war/hfo-israel-has-emphasized-the-move-is-not-the-first-step-to-a-cease-fire?smid=url-share ; https://x.com/cogatonline/status/1829950409051402566
[25] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/polio-vaccinations-begin-in-gaza-under-partial-pause-in-fighting-f2f28570?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos1
[26] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/28/israel-polio-pause-gaza/; https://www.ynet dot co.il/news/article/hkl2r36ic#autoplay
[27] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1830230694104306034
[28] https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1830235937843921302
[29]https://t.me/hamza20300/289189 ; https://t.me/hamza20300/289186 ; https://t.me/hamza20300/289188; https://t.me/hamza20300/289159
[30] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7363; https://t.me/nedalps/4383 ; https://t.me/khalaya_almujahidin/14878
[31] https://t.me/khalaya_almujahidin/14881; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7385
[32] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1829796890445046038
[33] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/3049; https://t.me/alwya2000/6759
[34] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1829796894630961242; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1830095181363749041
[35] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7363
[36] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1830104468542677398 ; https://t.me/moriahdoron/13417
[37] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1830104468542677398
[38] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/army-gunman-behind-deadly-shooting-a-former-member-of-pas-presidential-guard/
[39] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1830231716553953397 ; https://t.me/moriahdoron/13427 ; https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1830242074160926915
[40] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7379
[41] https://t.me/khalaya_almujahidin/14877 ; https://t.me/alwya2000/6760 ; https://t.me/hamaswestbank/53252
[42] https://t.me/hamaswestbank/53252
[43] https://t.me/sarayajneen/1537 ; https://t.me/sarayajneen/1534 ; https://t.me/sarayajneen/1533 ; https://t.me/sarayajneen/1532 ; https://t.me/sarayajneen/1530 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7364 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7362 ; https://t.me/khalaya_almujahidin/14876
[44] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7368 ; https://t.me/sarayajneen/1530
[45] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1829935529296527864 ; https://idfanc dot activetrail.biz/ANC3108202434852
[46] https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1829932675433468367
[47] https://t.me/mmirleb/6509; https://t.me/mmirleb/6511; https://t.me/mmirleb/6515; https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1830233444145930472; https://t.me/mmirleb/6517; https://t.me/mmirleb/6519; https://t.me/mmirleb/6521; https://t.me/mmirleb/6523; https://t.me/mmirleb/6525; https://t.me/mmirleb/6527;
https://t.me/mmirleb/6529 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6531
[48] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1830233444145930472; https://t.me/mmirleb/6517
[49] https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1830029468129509833