Andie Parry, Annika Ganzeveld, Alexandra Braverman, Kathryn Tyson, Kelly Campa, Talia Tayoun, and Nicholas Carl
Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET
The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Click here to subscribe to the Iran Update.
CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate with one another to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.
We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
Key Takeaways:
- Political Negotiations: Hamas is considering an Egyptian-proposed ceasefire deal that would have Hamas release 20 to 33 Israeli hostages alive. Western outlets reported the proposal involves new Israeli concessions. Hamas has not changed its maximalist position in the negotiations since December 2023.
- Iran: Delegations from Russia, North Korea, and several African countries, among others, have traveled to Tehran for an international trade exhibition. The exhibition is part of the Iranian effort to undermine Western sanctions by increasing Iranian exports and economic cooperation with other countries. Iran remains particularly focused on selling military equipment.
- Gaza Strip: The World Central Kitchen announced the resumption of its humanitarian operations in the Gaza Strip. The IDF separately announced the expansion of its humanitarian zone in the southern Gaza Strip.
- Iraq: Some Iraqi parliamentarians have backed a motion to designate the US ambassador to Iraq as a persona non grata. The parliamentarians are responding to the ambassador condemning a newly passed law that criminalizes homosexuality in Iraq.
- Syria: The Syrian regime reportedly deployed forces to Suwayda Province, as anti-regime activity has continued mounting there. Anti-regime protests have fluctuated across the province since August 2023.
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
- Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip
West Bank
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel
Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights
Axis of Resistance objectives:
- Deter Israel from conducting a ground operation into Lebanon
- Prepare for an expanded and protracted conflict with Israel in the near term
- Expel the United States from Syria
Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.
Sixty-one Iraqi parliamentarians called for designating US Ambassador to Iraq Alina Romanowski a persona not grata on April 28 after she condemned a new Iraqi law that criminalizes homosexuality.[57] The Iraqi parliament passed on April 27 the “Anti-Prostitution and Homosexuality Law” that enables Iraqi authorities to imprison individuals in same-sex relationships for up to 15 years.[58] The leader of Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Asaib Ahl al Haq, Qais al Khazali, and other Iranian-backed Iraqi actors praised the law, claiming that it protects the Iraqi “value structure and cultural identity.”[59] Iranian-backed Iraqi parliamentarians accused Romanowski of “interfering in Iraqi internal affairs” after she condemned the law.[60] Former Parliament Speaker Mohammad al Halbousi previously blocked an extraordinary parliamentary session to expel Romanowski before the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court dismissed him in November 2023.[61] It is unclear whether current Parliament Speaker Mohsen al Mandalawi, who is close to the Shia Coordination Framework, would similarly block parliamentary efforts to expel Romanowski. Mandalawi praised the “Anti-Prostitution and Homosexuality Law,” claiming that it will prevent “moral decadence” in Iraq.[62]
An unspecified gunman shot and killed prominent social media personality Ghufran Mahdi Sawadi in Baghdad on April 29. Sawadi frequently posted dancing and singing videos on Instagram and TikTok.[63] An Iraqi court previously sentenced Sawadi to six months in prison in 2023 for promoting “indecent public behavior” on social media.[64] The Iraqi Interior Ministry is conducting an investigation into Sawadi’s death.[65]
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Organization (UKMTO) reported an explosion causing minor damage to the container ship Cyclades 54 nautical miles northwest of Mukha, Yemen, on April 29.[78] UK maritime security firm Ambrey reported that the Houthis fired three missiles targeting a Malta-flagged vessel traveling from Djibouti to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, due to its trade association with Israel.[79]
US Central Command (CENTCOM) intercepted five Houthi drones over the Red Sea on April 28.[80] CENTCOM said that the drones presented an imminent threat to US, coalition, and merchant vessels in the region.[81] The Italian Defense Ministry separately said on April 29 that one of its naval vessels intercepted a Houthi drone targeting a commercial vessel near the Bab al Mandeb Strait.[82]
IRGC-affiliated media claimed on April 28 the IRGC has developed a new one-way attack drone which is “very similar” to the Russian Lancet drone.[83] IRGC-affiliated media noted that the drone has structural similarities to the Russian ZALA Lancet drone. The Russian Air Force uses commonly Lancets as to conduct attacks in Ukraine.[84] Iran often exaggerates its military capabilities, so it is unclear to what extent Iran has anything seriously resembling a Lancet. The timing of IRGC-affiliated media publishing this information is especially noteworthy given that it coincides with the Iranian defense minister, Mohammad Reza Gharaei Ashtiani, discussing possible arms deals with regional and extra-regional actors.
[1] https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/29/middleeast/hamas-israel-ceasefire-proposal-cairo-talks-intl/index.html
[2] https://www.axios.com/2024/04/26/israel-hamas-egypt-hostage-deal-rafah-invasion-gaza ; https://www.axios.com/2024/04/27/israel-gaza-ceasefire-humanitarian-hostage-release
[3] https://t.me/hamaswestbank/51292
[4] https://www dot timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israeli-delegation-expected-in-cairo-as-jerusalem-waits-for-hamas-response-to-truce-offer/ ; https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/hamas-to-submit-answer-to-israeli-truce-proposal-monday/ ; https://twitter.com/kann_news/status/1784943110193111349
[5] https://www.axios.com/2024/04/27/israel-gaza-ceasefire-humanitarian-hostage-release ; https://twitter.com/yanircozin/status/1784461431607308373
[6] https://www dot idf.il/194332
[7] https://www.axios.com/2024/04/27/israel-gaza-ceasefire-humanitarian-hostage-release
[8] https://www.axios.com/2024/04/27/israel-gaza-ceasefire-humanitarian-hostage-release ; https://www.timesofisrael dot com/israel-said-willing-to-lower-demand-for-release-of-40-hostages-in-truces-first-phase/
[9] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/israel-said-to-drop-demand-that-40-hostages-be-freed-after-assessing-some-died/
[10] https://www dot timesofisrael.com/blinken-hopes-hamas-takes-israels-extraordinarily-generous-truce-offer/
[11] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-secretary-state-antony-blinken-arrives-saudi-arabia-2024-04-29/ ; https://www.axios.com/2024/04/27/israel-gaza-ceasefire-humanitarian-hostage-release
[12] https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1784682554584441235
[13] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-secretary-state-antony-blinken-arrives-saudi-arabia-2024-04-29/ ; https://www dot timesofisrael.com/blinken-hopes-hamas-takes-israels-extraordinarily-generous-truce-offer/
[14] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/egyptian-fm-hopeful-for-gaza-truce-hostage-deal-proposal/
[15] https://t.me/alwya2000/6218 ; https://t.me/pflpgaza1/14092
[16] https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-68909511
[17] https://t.me/pflpgaza1/14092
[18] https://apnews.com/article/hamas-khalil-alhayya-qatar-ceasefire-1967-borders-4912532b11a9cec29464eab234045438
[19] https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-aid-gaza-us-port-pier-d4d9ea94550aed2d24a258dfd98d866e ; https://twitter.com/ItayBlumental/status/1784958297683984802
[20] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/02/10/3076704 ;
https://en.otaghiranonline dot ir/news/45480
[21] https://iranexpofair dot com/ ;
https://president dot ir/en/151510
[22] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/02/10/3076704
[23] https://time.com/6970285/north-korea-delegation-visits-iran-military-cooperation/
[24] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/02/10/3076704
[25] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/02/08/3076030 ;
https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/02/08/3076029
[26] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-july-14-2023
[27] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/02/08/3075595 ; https://snn dot ir/fa/news/1142746/
[28] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/02/10/3077087
[29] https://t.me/hamza20300/235185 ; https://t.me/hamza20300/235116 ; https://t.me/hamza20300/235075; https://t.me/hamza20300/235065 ; https://t.me/hamza20300/234996
[30] https://www dot idf.il/194332
[31] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1932
[32] https://twitter.com/ytirawi/status/1784653176248877216 ; https://twitter.com/ytirawi/status/1784670015196733562
[33] https://www.idf.il/%D7%A0%D7%95%D7%A4%D7%9C%D7%99%D7%9D/%D7%97%D7%9C%D7%9C%D7%99-%D7%94%D7%9E%D7%9C%D7%97%D7%9E%D7%94/%D7%A7%D7%90%D7%9C%D7%A7%D7%99%D7%93%D7%9F-%D7%9E%D7%94%D7%A8%D7%99/ ; https://www.idf.il/%D7%A0%D7%95%D7%A4%D7%9C%D7%99%D7%9D/%D7%97%D7%9C%D7%9C%D7%99-%D7%94%D7%9E%D7%9C%D7%97%D7%9E%D7%94/%D7%A2%D7%99%D7%93%D7%95-%D7%90%D7%91%D7%99%D7%91/
[34] https://t.me/AymanGouda/6125; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1935 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/17704 ;
https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4209 ; https://t.me/mojahdeenpal/4470
[35] https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1784624831511626121
[36] https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1784624831511626121
[37] https://isw.pub/IranUpdate040524 ;
[38] https://www dot timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/world-central-kitchen-set-to-renew-work-in-gaza-after-deadly-strike-on-aid-convoy/
[39] https://www.washingtonpost.com/food/2024/04/28/world-central-kitchen-gaza-resumes-aid/ ; https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/28/world/middleeast/world-central-kitchen-gaza-aid.html
[40] https://wck.org/news/gaza-team-update
[41] https://www dot alalam.ir/news/6855083/%D9%81%D9%8A%D8%AF%D9%8A%D9%88-%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%B5--%D9%82%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B3-%D9%8A%D9%83%D8%B4%D9%81-%D8%AD%D9%82%D9%8A%D9%82%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%87%D9%85-%D9%85%D9%86-%D9%82%D8%B7%D8%B1-%D9%91
[42] https://www dot alalam.ir/news/6855083/%D9%81%D9%8A%D8%AF%D9%8A%D9%88-%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%B5--%D9%82%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B3-%D9%8A%D9%83%D8%B4%D9%81-%D8%AD%D9%82%D9%8A%D9%82%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%87%D9%85-%D9%85%D9%86-%D9%82%D8%B7%D8%B1-%D9%91
[43] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1784984461634949623
[44] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1784984461634949623
[45] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1809
[46] https://t.me/sarayaps/17706
[47] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6331
[48] https://t.me/kataebaqsapalestine/3125
[49] https://t.me/kataebaqsapalestine/3125
[50] https://www.jpost dot com/breaking-news/article-799007; https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/police-arrest-5-far-right-activists-suspected-of-avenging-14-year-old-settlers-death/; https://twitter.com/IDFSpokesperson/status/1778783421382213912
[51] https://www.jpost dot com/breaking-news/article-799007
[52] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1779177437009416385; https://www.jpost dot com/arab-israeli-conflict/dozens-of-palestinians-and-jews-injured-in-west-bank-altercations-796826; https://www.timesofisrael dot com/settlers-riot-in-west-bank-after-israeli-teen-murdered-palestinian-killed-others-hurt/;
[53] https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-799007
[54] https://t.me/mmirleb/3580; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1933; https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1784911732470600160; https://t.me/mmirleb/3582; https://t.me/mmirleb/3582; https://t.me/mmirleb/3584
[55] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1933; https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1784844149197263218
[56] https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1784844149197263218; https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1784861724446749077
[57] https://t.me/TuthiatAlshiyea/67843
[58] https://www.state.gov/anti-prostitution-and-homosexuality-law-in-iraq/ ;
https://apnews.com/article/iraq-lgbtq-law-85e5e55cde7a581631c484ad83b0773c
[59] https://t.me/TuthiatAlshiyea/67824 ;
https://t.me/TuthiatAlshiyea/67822
[60] https://twitter.com/USAmbIraq/status/1784340270743507255 ;
https://t.me/TuthiatAlshiyea/67841
[61] https://shafaq dot com/ar/%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%A9/%D9%85%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%AC-%D8%A9-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%88%D8%B3%D9%8A-%D8%B1%D9%81%D8%B6-%D8%B9%D9%82%D8%AF-%D8%AC%D9%84%D8%B3%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%AB%D9%86%D8%A7-%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%84%D8%B7%D8%B1%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%81%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84-%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%A9
[62] https://t.me/TuthiatAlshiyea/67789
[63] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/28/world/middleeast/tiktok-iraq-killing.html
[64] https://time.com/6971797/iraqi-authorities-investigate-tiktok-star-om-fahad-killing/
[65] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/28/world/middleeast/tiktok-iraq-killing.html
[66] https://www.alahad dot iq/?page=article&itemId=191864
[67] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-15-2024 ;
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm847
[68] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-15-2024
[69] https://www.alahad dot iq/?page=article&itemId=191864 ;https://shafaq dot com/ar/سیاسة/بعد-انسحاب-الكريم-دولة-القانون-يدفع-بالعيساوي-لر-اسة-البرلمان
[70] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-15-2024
[71] https://twitter.com/suwayda24/status/1783508859732025466 ;
https://twitter.com/suwayda24/status/1784590445298753762 ;
https://twitter.com/suwayda24/status/1784575585466859662 ;
https://twitter.com/SAMSyria0/status/1784840974276956258 ;
https://twitter.com/nourabohsn/status/1784854481970053225
[72] https://twitter.com/suwayda24/status/1783387365534257466
[73] https://npasyria dot com/184845 ; https://twitter.com/suwayda24/status/1784643643115966922 ;
[74] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/syria-protest-update-september-12%E2%80%93september-18 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/syria-protest-update-august-29%E2%80%94september-4
[75] https://twitter.com/suwayda24/status/1784590445298753762 ;
https://twitter.com/suwayda24/status/1784575585466859662 ;
https://twitter.com/SAMSyria0/status/1784671136518709617
[76] https://twitter.com/suwayda24/status/1784643643115966922;
https://twitter.com/suwayda24/status/1783521352483229846;
https://twitter.com/suwayda24/status/1784897026909491366 ; https://www.facebook.com/Suwayda24/posts/pfbid02qzEJbbwJ7GFTe3gXhp6GCgnfryV6XSyhesnJ7ZUD44AfoBkQr4qy1uRDYbGKzfHyl?__cft__[0]=AZVhbq25GYr6FL9pKoX58Je8Oa_t00YvUAPCswhn5n7bdGMcBNbG2guSfTbBI2e1CiOxgjUSsXE-k-uWwyH4JRgOVMuSWq1i5CEA999m2IWiRAeocUqY-yjEq6sCG_7VaAxDGoJO0_cTvGjsIDyRHBSiNdTRWOhyXehYlHGT0guTnPf26T91IIxGSb4AzDqNs2YtB3Dd-wBcfTFgPpGjD9EF&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R
[77] https://twitter.com/SAMSyria0/status/1784848893248733663 ;
https://twitter.com/nourabohsn/status/1784934357876002913
[78] https://twitter.com/UK_MTO/status/1784987671544107301 ; https://twitter.com/UK_MTO/status/1784871044680917151
[79] https://apnews.com/article/yemen-houthi-red-sea-ship-attacks-israel-hamas-gaza-cf858f30b4ba19731f6dc7719e9fa892
[80] https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3758545/april-28-red-sea-update/
[81] https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3758545/april-28-red-sea-update/
[82] https://apnews.com/article/yemen-houthi-red-sea-ship-attacks-israel-hamas-gaza-cf858f30b4ba19731f6dc7719e9fa892
[83] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/02/09/3075776
[84] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-28-2023