UA-69458566-1

Thursday, July 18, 2019

Russia in Review: Africa Campaign Update

Russia in Review is a weekly intelligence summary (INTSUM) produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This ISW INTSUM series sheds light on key trends and developments related to the Russian government’s objectives and its efforts to secure them. Receive future Russia in Review INTSUM products via-email by signing up for the ISW mailing list.

Author: Darina Regio

Key Takeaway: The Kremlin continues to develop closer military, economic, and political ties with African states as part of its campaign to mitigate sanctions and compete with the West. Russia hosted two major forums focused on cooperation with African states in mid-2019 ahead of the upcoming Russia-Africa Summit in Sochi in October 2019. The Kremlin used these forums to deepen its bilateral relations and multilateral engagement with states across Africa. The U.S. should work to compete more actively with Russia in Africa through greater economic engagement and a robust information campaign stressing the small scope and self-serving nature of Russia’s engagements in Africa. 

The Kremlin is intensifying its outreach to African leaders ahead of a planned Russia-Africa Summit in October 2019. Russia hosted two major forums focusing on Africa in mid-2019: the Russia-Africa Economic Summit on June 20 - 22 and the Russia-Africa Inter-Parliamentary Forum on July 1 - 3.[1] The Russian Security Council hosted delegations from Africa at the Ufa Security Conference on June 18 - 20.[2] The Russian Defense Ministry also invited many African leaders to its Army-2019 Forum on June 25 - 30.[3] The forums featured a number of senior officials including Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu, and Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Director Sergey Naryshkin. The Kremlin routinely uses international forums as a platform to foster personal high-level relations and state-to-state partnerships across the globe.[4]

The Kremlin will host its Russia-Africa Summit in Sochi on October 24. The summit will likely focus on joint projects with the African Union (AU) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) as well as a potential free trade zone built on the existing African Continental Free Trade Agreement, which includes fifty-three member-states.[5] Russian State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin stated that the forum would have “no precedent in the history of Russian relations with African states, including the Soviet period when relations were very active” with Africa.[6] The Kremlin is also planning to sign a memorandum of cooperation between the African Union and the Eurasian Economic Union - part of its broader effort to build constellations of international alliances centered on Russia.[7] These efforts will likely succeed (at least in part) as African leaders regularly express positive attitudes towards partnership with Russia.[8]

The Kremlin is using these forums and summits to build closer economic, political, and military ties with states in Africa.
  • Economic: Russia hosted a Russia-Africa Economic Summit on the sidelines of the African Export Import Bank (Afreximbank) Annual Meeting in Moscow on June 20 - 22.[9] The event marked only the second time that a non-African country hosted Afreximbank (China hosted it in 2012), signifying that Africa is prioritizing new economic cooperation with Russia.[10] Afreximbank signed at least six memorandums of understanding with investment and energy businesses in Russia at the Russia-Africa Economic Summit.[11] Medvedev also used the summit to stress the importance of cooperation in the mining, energy, agriculture, and telecommunication sectors between Russia and Africa.[12] Russia already held a relationship with Afreximbank. The Russian Export Center (which is already working on an industrial zone in Egypt) holds shares in Afreximbank and jointly funds projects in Sierra Leone, Angola, Nigeria, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.[13] The Kremlin is attempting to use these ties with Africa to increase bilateral trade, attract foreign investment, and compete with the economic influence and investment of the West in Africa.
  • Political: The Russian Duma hosted the Russia-Africa Inter-Parliamentary Forum on July 1 - 3, which included over three hundred parliamentarians from over thirty-eight states.[14] The Kremlin views these countries as potential supporters of its campaign to delegitimize the West and seeks their support to mitigate sanctions on Russia.[15] Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov stressed in November 2018 that “Russia regards Africa as an important and active participant in the emerging polycentric architecture of the world order and an ally in protecting international law against attempts to undermine it.”[16] Russia also uses inter-legislative exchanges to build support for projects to expand its economic presence in Africa, promote educational cooperation, offer scholarships to study in Russia, and develop additional Russian Science and Culture Centers, which already exist in Egypt, Morocco, Zambia, Congo, Tanzania, Tunisia, and Ethiopia.[17] The Kremlin has presented itself as a strong global partner and regional ally to Africa, relying on its recent investments as well as historical relationships formed during the Soviet Union.[18] It also frames itself as a valuable partner in challenging international institutions, such as with its vocal support for lifting sanctions on Eritrea.[19] The Kremlin is willing to lobby on behalf of its major partners in Africa to garner their support in turn at the United Nations.
  • Military: The Russian Defense Ministry hosted the International Military-Technical Forum Army-2019 on June 25 - 30. Russia and Mali signed a military cooperation agreement at the Forum on June 25.[20] Shoygu also met with Malian Defense Minister Gen. Ibrahim Dembele and pledged support for stabilization in Mali on June 25.[21] Russia already has over twenty military cooperation agreements with countries in Africa including Sudan, the Central African Republic, Tanzania, and Eritrea.[22] Russia also hosted the Ufa Security Conference on June 18 - 20, which included talks on counter-terrorism and information security with officials from many African states including Egypt, Burundi, Namibia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tunisia, and Uganda.[23]
The Kremlin in particular is leveraging its ties with Egypt in preparation for the Russia-Africa Summit. Russia and Egypt held multiple top-level meetings to discuss regional cooperation and preparations for the Russia-Africa Summit in mid-2019. Putin and Egyptian President Abdel Fatteh al-Sisi met on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Osaka on June 29, and Putin thanked Sisi for Egypt’s role as a co-chair in organizing the Russia-Africa Summit.[24] Sisi is the 2019 Chair of the African Union (AU) and represents the AU at global summits, such as G20 and China-Africa Forum. He has stressed the importance of an African Free Trade Zone. Russia is likely attempting to use his position to establish favorable economic agreements with the African Union as well as individual states in Africa. Russia already holds significant economic leverage over Egypt.[25] It is currently building and recruiting for a Russian Industrial Zone in Egypt worth $200 million.[26] Lavrov and Shoygu also met with Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and Egyptian Defense Minister Gen. Mohamed Zaki in Moscow on June 24.[27]

The Kremlin’s investments have not yet produced tangible results for Russia in Africa. ISW has previously assessed that the Kremlin intends to use its campaign in Africa to alleviate the impact of sanctions and challenge the global standing of the U.S. and Europe.[28] It is advertising its efforts as support for “African solutions to African problems”, which is appealing to the major powerbrokers in Africa.[29] Yet the personal connections it is pursuing are unlikely to last due to the nature of the political scene in Africa. The U.S. should nonetheless carefully monitor Russia’s engagements in Africa due to the increasing strategic importance of the region in the global calculus of the Kremlin. The U.S. should engage in a robust information campaign highlighting the minimal investments and unreliability of Russia in Africa. The U.S. should also recognize that its primary competitors (such as Russia and China) are focusing on economic growth rather than humanitarian issues in Africa, and work to build support for similar initiatives from the West.

---
[1] “26th Afreximbank Annual Meeting,” Afreximbank, July 5, 2019, https://2019.afreximbankevents.com/en-home/; [“Olga Timofeeva: Our Task - Provide a Quality Start to Relations Between the Russian Parliament and the Parliaments of Every African Country,”] United Russia Bloc in the Russian State Duma, July 2, 2019, http://www.er-duma(.)ru/news/olga-timofeeva-nasha-zadacha-dat-kachestvennyy-start-otnosheniyam-mezhdu-parlamentom-rf-i-parlamento/.
[2] [“In Ufa, More Than a Hundred Countries Will Participate in an International Conference on Security Issues,”] Bashinform, June 17, 2019, http://www.bashinform(.)ru/news/1320499-v-ufe-bolee-sta-stran-primut-uchastie-v-mezhdunarodnoy-konferentsii-po-voprosam-bezopasnosti/; [“International Security Conference Held in Ufa,”] Nation News, July 4, 2019, https://nation-news(.)ru/458989-mezhdunarodnaya-konferenciya-po-bezopasnosti-proshla-v-ufe.
[3] [“General Information: International Military-Technical Forum ‘Army-2019’,] Army 2019, July 15, 2019, http://www.rusarmyexpo(.)ru/army2019/general_information.
[4] Frederick W. Kagan, Nataliya Bugayova, and Jennifer Cafarella, “Confronting the Russian Challenge: A New Approach for the U.S.,” Institute for the Study of War, June 2019, http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/ISW%20CTP%20Report%20-%20Confronting%20the%20Russian%20Challenge%20-%20June%202019.pdf, p. 20.
[5] “African Continental Free Trade Area: A New Horizon for Trade in Africa,” Council on Foreign Relations, June 10, 2019, https://www.cfr.org/blog/african-continental-free-trade-area-new-horizon-trade-africa.
[6] “Vyacheslav Volodin: Our Country Is Interested in a Mutually Beneficial Partnership with African Countries,” Russian State Duma, July 3, 2019, http://duma.gov(.)ru/en/news/45563/.
[7] [“EEU is Planning to Sign Memorandum of Cooperation with the African Union at the Russia-Africa Summit,”] TASS, June 7, 2019, https://tass(.)ru/ekonomika/6523630; Frederick W. Kagan, Nataliya Bugayova, and Jennifer Cafarella, “Confronting the Russian Challenge: A New Approach for the U.S.,” Institute for the Study of War, June 2019, http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/ISW%20CTP%20Report%20-%20Confronting%20the%20Russian%20Challenge%20-%20June%202019.pdf, p. 30.
[8] “Speaker of the Parliament of the Republic of Zimbabwe: It Is Important to Turn Our Words into Concrete Actions,” Russian State Duma, July 2, 2019, http://duma.gov(.)ru/en/news/45558/.
[9] “26th Afreximbank Annual Meeting,” Afreximbank, July 5, 2019, https://2019.afreximbankevents.com/en-home/.
[10] “African Bank Meeting Brings Opportunity to China,” Afreximbank, September 7, 2012, https://www.afreximbank.com/african-bank-meeting-brings-opportunity-china/.
[11] “Results of the Afreximbank Annual Meeting 2019,” Roscongress, June 24, 2019, https://roscongress(.)org/en/news/podvedeny-itogi-ezhegodnogo-sobranija-afreksimbanka-2019.
[12] “Results of the Afreximbank Annual Meeting 2019,” TASS, June 25, 2019, https://tass(.)com/press-releases/1065419.
[13] [“Priority Directions of Strategic Development of Russia – ‘International Cooperation and Export’,] Russian Export Center, July 15, 2019, https://www.exportcenter(.)ru/company/international-cooperation/; Andrew Mizner, “Afreximbank’s Russian Ties Strengthen,” African Law and Business, July 9, 2019, https://www.africanlawbusiness.com/news/9809-afreximbank-s-russian-ties-strengthen.
[14] Maria Mikhailovskaya, [“Slutsky Talked About Wide Expert Representation at the ‘Parliamentary Development’ Forum,”] Parlamentskaya Gazeta, June 24, 2019, https://www.pnp(.)ru/politics/sluckiy-rasskazal-o-shirokom-predstavitelstve-ekspertov-na-forume-razvitie-parlamentarizma.html; [“Vladimir Putin: The Modern World Needs an Open and Free Exchange of Views,”] Russian State Duma, July 3, 2019, http://duma.gov(.)ru/news/45564/; “Humanitarian Ties Between Russia and Africa Are Entering a New Phase,” Russian State Duma, July 2, 2019, http://duma.gov(.)ru/en/news/45559/.
[15] Frederick W. Kagan, Nataliya Bugayova, and Jennifer Cafarella, “Confronting the Russian Challenge: A New Approach for the U.S.,” Institute for the Study of War, June 2019, http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/ISW%20CTP%20Report%20-%20Confronting%20the%20Russian%20Challenge%20-%20June%202019.pdf. p. 20; [“Why the World Needs Parliamentary Development: Five Tasks of Inter-Parliamentary Dialogues,”] Russian State Duma, July 9, 2019, http://duma.gov(.)ru/news/45610/.
[16] “Development of Interaction Between Russia and African Countries Was Discussed in the State Duma,” Russian State Duma, November 19, 2018, http://duma.gov(.)ru/en/news/28831/.
[17][“Olga Timofeeva: Our Task - Provide a Quality Start to Relations Between the Russian Parliament and the Parliaments of Every African Country,”] United Russia Bloc in the Russian State Duma, July 2, 2019, http://www.er-duma(.)ru/news/olga-timofeeva-nasha-zadacha-dat-kachestvennyy-start-otnosheniyam-mezhdu-parlamentom-rf-i-parlamento/.
[18] Nataliya Bugayova with Jack Ulses and Chase Johnson, “The Kremlin’s Campaign in Africa,” Institute for the Study of War, October 28, 2018, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-kremlins-campaign-in-africa_18.html.
[19] “Russian Senior Diplomat, Eritrea President Discuss Lifting of UNSC Anti-Eritrea Sanctions,” TASS, October 19, 2018, https://tass(.)com/politics/1026946; “Russia Calls For Lifting Eritrea Sanctions - Lavrov,” TASS, August 31, 2019, https://tass(.)com/politics/1019451.
[20] [“Russia and Mali Signed a Memorandum on Military Cooperation,”] TASS, June 25, 2019, https://tass(.)ru/armiya-i-opk/6588923.
[21] “Russia Is Ready to Contribute to Earliest Possible Stabilization in Mali,” Russian Defense Ministry, June 25, 2019, https://eng.mil(.)ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12238368.
[22] Jakob Hedenskog, “Russia Is Stepping Up Its Military Cooperation in Africa,” Swedish Defense Research Agency, July 15, 2019, https://www.foi.se/rest-api/report/FOI%20MEMO%206604.
[23] [“In Ufa, More Than a Hundred Countries Will Participate in an International Conference on Security Issues,”] Bashinform, June 17, 2019, http://www.bashinform(.)ru/news/1320499-v-ufe-bolee-sta-stran-primut-uchastie-v-mezhdunarodnoy-konferentsii-po-voprosam-bezopasnosti/; [“International Security Conference Held in Ufa,”] Nation News, July 4, 2019, https://nation-news(.)ru/458989-mezhdunarodnaya-konferenciya-po-bezopasnosti-proshla-v-ufe; [“Safe Conversations. What Siloviki from 119 Countries Talked About for Three Days in Ufa,”] Kommersant, June 20, 2019, https://www.kommersant(.)ru/doc/4005772.
[24] [“Putin Spoke About Plans to Bring Relations Between Russia and Egypt to a New Level,”] RIA, June 29, 2019, https://ria(.)ru/20190629/1556037595.html.
[25] Hamza Mohamed, “Egypt’s Sisi Takes Over as New Head of African Union,” Al-Jazeera, February 10, 2019, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/egypt-sisi-takes-head-african-union-190210140131428.html.
[26] [“Priority Directions of Strategic Development of Russia – ‘International Cooperation and Export’,] Russian Export Center, July 15, 2019, https://www.exportcenter(.)ru/company/international-cooperation/.
[27] The discussion included talks on removing a ban on flights to Egypt that Russia instituted after the downing of a passenger jet over the Sinai Peninsula on October 31, 2015. The Kremlin lifted a ban on direct flights from Moscow to Cairo in April 2018. Its ban on charter flights remains in place. See: [“In Egypt, Announced the Resumption of Charter Flights from Russia Until the End of the Year,”] Izvestia, June 24, 2019, https://iz(.)ru/892221/2019-06-24/v-egipte-anonsirovali-vozobnovlenie-charterov-iz-rossii-do-kontca-goda; “Russia Plane Crash: Moscow Bans Egypt Air Flights After Jet Crash,” BBC, November 13, 2015, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34811587; “Air Service To Resume Between Russia, Egypt After Two-Year Suspension,” RFE/RL, April 11, 2018, https://www.rferl.org/a/air-service-direct-flights-russia-egypt-moscow-cairo-resume-april-11/29158304.html.
[28] Nataliya Bugayova with Jack Ulses and Chase Johnson, “The Kremlin’s Campaign in Africa,” Institute for the Study of War, October 18, 2018, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-kremlins-campaign-in-africa_18.html.
[29] “Russian, Mozambican Diplomats Discuss Preparations for ‘Russia-Africa’ Summit,” TASS, June 17, 2019, https://tass(.)com/politics/1064233.