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Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Election Update: Ukraine's First Majority Government

By Mason Clark

Key Takeaway: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Servant of the People Party secured an unprecedented outright majority in the 2019 Ukrainian Parliamentary Election, achieving the first majority government in the modern history of Ukraine. Zelensky will likely use this strong popular mandate to tackle corruption and implement much-needed reforms across the Government of Ukraine. However, his inexperienced new government may struggle to execute policy and fend off manipulation by external actors favorable to the Kremlin.

[Read a detailed assessment of Russia's attempt to exploit the transition of power in Ukraine in 2019 here.]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Servant of the People Party won an unprecedented outright majority in the 2019 Ukrainian Parliamentary Election on July 21. The Servant of the People Party won 56% of seats in the Ukrainian Parliament, marking the first time that a single party has won an absolute majority in post-Soviet Ukraine.[1] Zelensky has still offered to form a governing coalition with the reformist Holos Party to strengthen his popular mandate and reformist image.[2] However, his parliamentary majority grants him full control over the Government of Ukraine and the ability to pass desired legislation without the Holos Party.

Three other political blocs also passed the five-percent minimum threshold to enter the Ukrainian Parliament.[3] The pro-Russia Opposition Platform - For Life successfully increased its share of seats in the Ukrainian Parliament from 6% to 10% despite the exclusion of the separatist pro-Russian Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts of Eastern Ukraine.[4] The Opposition Platform will form the primary opposition and act as a spoiler with no direct control over the Government of Ukraine. Former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s pro-Western European Solidarity Party and the populist Fatherland Party both also won a minor share of seats in the Ukrainian Parliament.[5]

The next Government of Ukraine will nonetheless be more vulnerable than its predecessor to policy missteps and manipulation by the Kremlin. Zelensky likely does not intentionally seek to advance the interests of the Kremlin in Ukraine.[6] His new government will likely follow through with its popular mandate to enact domestic reforms and tackle long-entrenched political and economic corruption. His desire to work with the reformist Holos Party despite winning a majority in the Ukrainian Parliament highlights his commitment to reform towards Europe.

However, Zelensky’s dominance of the Government of Ukraine increases the risks inherent to his reliance on external advisors and lack of defined policy stances.[7] Zelensky will not face significant constraints to appointing key ministers and forming a cabinet. He will likely fill these positions with inexperienced personal allies and figures tied to oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi - both sets of which are potentially amenable to influence from the Kremlin.[8] His lack of an experienced coalition partner will likely lead to further policy missteps, political confusion, and external manipulation in the Government of Ukraine. Zelensky has already proposed a bill banning officials who previously served under Poroshenko.[9] Pro-Kremlin and anti-reform actors will likely have many opportunities to shape the new government to their own ends.[10] The U.S and its partners in Europe must increase their efforts to build ties with Zelensky and other reformists in Ukraine to ensure that these actors cannot steer Zelensky towards policies favored by the Kremlin.

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[1] [“Results in the Multi-Mandate Constituency,”] Central Election Commission of Ukraine, Accessed July 23, 2019, https://www.cvk.gov(.)ua/pls/vnd2019/wp300pt001f01=919.html; [“Results of Voting in Districts,”] Central Election Commission of Ukraine, Accessed July 23, 2019, https://www.cvk.gov(.)ua/pls/vnd2019/wp306_npt001f01=919.html.
[2] “Servant of the People Will Gladly Invite Holos to Coalition - Zelensky,” Ukrinform, July 21, 2019, https://www.ukrinform(.)net/rubric-polytics/2744977-servant-of-the-people-will-gladly-invite-holos-to-coalition-zelensky.html; Mason Clark, “Election Update: Ukraine’s Next Parliament,” Institute for the Study of War, July 18, 2019, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2019/07/election-update-ukraines-next-parliament.html.
[3] Mason Clark, “Election Update: Ukraine’s Next Parliament,” Institute for the Study of War, July 18, 2019, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2019/07/election-update-ukraines-next-parliament.html; [“Results in the Multi-Mandate Constituency,”] Central Election Commission of Ukraine, Accessed July 23, 2019, https://www.cvk.gov(.)ua/pls/vnd2019/wp300pt001f01=919.html; [“Results of Voting in Districts,”] Central Election Commission of Ukraine, Accessed July 23, 2019, https://www.cvk.gov(.)ua/pls/vnd2019/wp306_npt001f01=919.html.
[4] [“Deputy Factions and Groups of the 8th Convocation,”] Ukrainian Parliament, Accessed July 18, 2019, http://w1.c1.rada.gov(.)ua/pls/site2/p_fractions; [“Results in the Multi-Mandate Constituency,”] Central Election Commission of Ukraine, Accessed July 23, 2019, https://www.cvk.gov(.)ua/pls/vnd2019/wp300pt001f01=919.html; [“Results of Voting in Districts,”] Central Election Commission of Ukraine, Accessed July 23, 2019, https://www.cvk.gov(.)ua/pls/vnd2019/wp306_npt001f01=919.html.
[5] [“Results in the Multi-Mandate Constituency,”] Central Election Commission of Ukraine, Accessed July 23, 2019, https://www.cvk.gov(.)ua/pls/vnd2019/wp300pt001f01=919.html; [“Results of Voting in Districts,”] Central Election Commission of Ukraine, Accessed July 23, 2019, https://www.cvk.gov(.)ua/pls/vnd2019/wp306_npt001f01=919.html.
[6] Nataliya Bugayova, “Russia in Review: Exploiting Transition in Ukraine,” Institute for the Study of War, July 12, 2019, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2019/07/russia-in-review-exploiting-transition.html.
[7] Nataliya Bugayova, “Ukraine’s New President: The Stakes for Ukraine and the West,” Institute for the Study of War, April 22, 2019, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2019/04/ukraines-new-president-stakes-for.html.
[8] Christopher Miller, “Servant of the People or Master? Big Parliamentary Win Hands Ukraine’s New President a More Dominant Role,” RFE/RL, July 22, 2019, https://www.rferl.org/a/servant-of-the-people----or-master-big-parliamentary-win-hands-ukraine-s-new-president-a-more-dominant-role-/30069663.html.
[9] Mason Clark, “Election Update: Ukraine’s Next Parliament,” Institute for the Study of War, July 18, 2019, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2019/07/election-update-ukraines-next-parliament.html.
[10] Nataliya Bugayova, “Ukraine’s New President: The Stakes for Ukraine and the West,” Institute for the Study of War, April 22, 2019, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2019/04/ukraines-new-president-stakes-for.html.