By Mason Clark
Key Takeaway: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Servant of the People Party will likely enter a coalition government with the reformist Holos Party following the 2019 Ukrainian Parliamentary Election on July 21. This outcome would exclude political actors overtly favorable to Russia from the Government of Ukraine, but Zelensky will likely struggle to implement policies due to his government’s inexperience and remains vulnerable to external manipulation by the Kremlin. The U.S. must work to counter Russia’s influence in Ukraine and support pro-Western reformists in forming a stable and functional Government of Ukraine.
[Read the post-election update here.]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s political bloc will almost certainly win the upcoming 2019 Ukrainian Parliamentary Election on July 21. Zelensky dissolved the Ukrainian Parliament during his inaugural address on May 21, forcing early elections originally scheduled for October 27.[1] His Servant of the People Party will likely dominate the election but fall short of a majority, requiring a coalition partner to form the next Government of Ukraine.[2] Four other blocs will also likely pass the five percent threshold required to gain seats in the Ukrainian Parliament: the pro-Russia Opposition Platform - For Life; the populist All-Ukrainian Union - Fatherland Party led by former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko; former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s European Solidarity Party; and the reformist Holos Party.[3]
The pro-Russia Opposition Platform - For Life will likely increase its current share of seats in the Ukrainian Parliament by a few percentage points.[4] It will likely nonetheless remain in the opposition with no direct control over the Government of Ukraine. Zelensky has hardened his rhetoric toward Russia and has rejected a governing coalition with the Opposition Platform.[5] Yet he has not yet advanced concrete policies in support of this rhetoric, leaving open the possibility that he may still pursue future policies that advance the interests of Russia in Ukraine. The Kremlin will likely use the reorganized Opposition Platform to further advance these goals and act as a spoiler in the Ukrainian Parliament.
Zelensky will also likely reject a coalition with the pro-Western European Solidarity Party in order to distance himself from Poroshenko. He introduced a bill to the Ukrainian Parliament on July 12 that proposed extending lustration laws (originally banning officials from public office who worked for former pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych) to May 19, 2019. The measure would thus extend the ban on public service to any officials who worked for Poroshenko.[6] Zelensky’s bill is a dangerous indicator of both his unwillingness to work with experienced policymakers and his susceptibility to proposing policies that indirectly favor the Kremlin.
Zelensky will likely form a coalition with the reformist Holos Party. He will likely pursue this partnership to strengthen his image as a reformer and distance himself from the current political establishment in Ukraine.[7] This coalition would prevent politicians overtly amenable to Russia from entering the Government of Ukraine but will still be open to manipulation and likely less effective than the previous Ukrainian Parliament under Poroshenko.
Zelensky could alternatively enter a coalition with Tymoshenko’s Fatherland Party, which would be a more dangerous outcome for the interests of the West. Tymoshenko has extended overtures towards a possible coalition with Zelensky and pledged that the Fatherland Party will not enter the opposition even if excluded from the next Government of Ukraine.[8] This coalition would create an avenue for the Kremlin to influence Zelensky through Tymoshenko (who has previously proven herself amenable to Russia). Zelensky’s desire to work with new political actors and distance himself from the political establishment, however, will likely lead him to form a coalition with the Holos Party over the long-standing and oligarch-linked Fatherland Party.
The next Government of Ukraine may maintain Ukraine’s path towards the West but will nonetheless be significantly more vulnerable to manipulation by the Kremlin. The Servant of the People Party is not running any incumbent parliamentarians and its list of candidates consists of a mix of reformers, friends and business partners of Zelensky, and allies of prominent oligarch (and key Zelensky backer) Ihor Kolomoyskyi.[9] The Holos Party is similarly running no incumbents and champions its status as a political outsider.[10] Their coalition would have a popular mandate for domestic reforms to tackle long-entrenched political and economic corruption. However, their collective lack of experienced policymakers and concrete policy proposals may stymie progress and grant opportunities for individual members to be swayed by the Kremlin.[11]
The next Government of Ukraine will also not break free of oligarchic influence despite the fact that it will not include an oligarch in a major elected position - a sharp departure from previous governments. Kolomoyskyi will not hold a formal post but will nonetheless wield outsized influence over Zelensky and the Government of Ukraine. He is not overtly favorable to the Kremlin but is likely to act to protect his own business interests by impeding reforms and supporting lucrative economic concessions to Russia.[12]
Zelensky’s Servant of the People Party will remain an easier target for external manipulation than the previous Government of Ukraine regardless of the specific outcome of 2019 Ukrainian Parliamentary Election. The U.S should work with its partners in Europe to support reformists under Zelensky in their effort to enact sound reforms and insulate Ukraine from the Kremlin.
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[1] “Ukrainian Constitutional Court OKs Parliament’s Dissolution, Early Elections,” RFE/RL, June 20, 2019, https://www.rferl.org/a/ukrainian-constitutional-court-oks-parliament-s-dissolution-early-poll/30010735.html.
[2] Oleg Sukhov, “Last Polls: Zelensky’s Party May Take Half of Votes in Parliament Election,” Kyiv Post, July 18, 2019, https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/last-polls-zelenskys-party-may-take-half-of-votes-in-parliament-election.html; Nataliya Bugayova, “Russia in Review: Exploiting Transition in Ukraine,” Institute for the Study of War, July 12, 2019, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2019/07/russia-in-review-exploiting-transition.html.
[3] Ibid.
[4] [“Deputy Factions and Groups of the 8th Convocation,”] Ukrainian Parliament, Accessed July 18, 2019, http://w1.c1.rada.gov(.)ua/pls/site2/p_fractions.
[5] Nataliya Bugayova, “Russia in Review: Exploiting Transition in Ukraine,” Institute for the Study of War, July 12, 2019, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2019/07/russia-in-review-exploiting-transition.html.
[6] Natalia Lebed, “What Does Zelensky’s Plan to Purge Ukraine’s Officials Mean?” 112 Ukraine, July 18, 2019, https://112(.)international/ukraine-top-news/what-does-zelenskys-plan-to-purge-ukraine-officials-mean-41817.html.
[7] Peter Dickinson, “Rise of the Zelennials: Ukraine’s Parliamentary Elections Signal Generational Shift,” Atlantic Council, July 16, 2019, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/rise-of-the-zelennials-ukraine-s-parliamentary-election-signals-generational-shift; Jonah Fisher, “Volodymyr Zelensky: Why Ukraine’s New President Needs Second Election Win,” BBC, July 16, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48853747.
[8] [“Tymoshenko Stated that the Fatherland Party Will Not Be Opposition to the Current Government,”] UNIAN, June 10, 2019, https://www.unian(.)ua/politics/10581633-timoshenko-zapevnila-shcho-batkivshchina-ne-bude-v-opoziciji-do-chinnoji-vladi.html; “Batkivshchyna Willing to Set Up Coalition with Zelensky’s Party”, Interfax, June 10, 2019, https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/batkivshchyna-willing-to-set-up-coalition-with-zelenskiys-party.html.
[9] Peter Dickinson, “Rise of the Zelennials: Ukraine’s Parliamentary Elections Signal Generational Shift,” Atlantic Council, July 16, 2019, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/rise-of-the-zelennials-ukraine-s-parliamentary-election-signals-generational-shift; Molly Montgomery, “In Ukraine’s Parliamentary Elections, President Zelensky’s Party Is Likely to Dominate,” Brookings, July 15, 2019, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/07/15/in-ukraines-parliamentary-elections-president-zelenskiys-party-is-likely-to-dominate/.
[10] [“Vakarchuk: New Party List Will Not Have Acting Deputies,”] Ukrainskaya Pravda, July 19, 2019, https://www.pravda(.)com.ua/news/2019/05/19/7215497/.
[11] Nataliya Bugayova, “Ukraine’s New President: The Stakes for Ukraine and the West,” Institute for the Study of War, April 22, 2019, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2019/04/ukraines-new-president-stakes-for.html; Nataliya Bugayova, “Russia in Review: Exploiting Transition in Ukraine,” Institute for the Study of War, July 12, 2019, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2019/07/russia-in-review-exploiting-transition.html.
[12] Nataliya Bugayova, “Ukraine’s New President: The Stakes for Ukraine and the West,” Institute for the Study of War, April 22, 2019, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2019/04/ukraines-new-president-stakes-for.html.
[1] “Ukrainian Constitutional Court OKs Parliament’s Dissolution, Early Elections,” RFE/RL, June 20, 2019, https://www.rferl.org/a/ukrainian-constitutional-court-oks-parliament-s-dissolution-early-poll/30010735.html.
[2] Oleg Sukhov, “Last Polls: Zelensky’s Party May Take Half of Votes in Parliament Election,” Kyiv Post, July 18, 2019, https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/last-polls-zelenskys-party-may-take-half-of-votes-in-parliament-election.html; Nataliya Bugayova, “Russia in Review: Exploiting Transition in Ukraine,” Institute for the Study of War, July 12, 2019, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2019/07/russia-in-review-exploiting-transition.html.
[3] Ibid.
[4] [“Deputy Factions and Groups of the 8th Convocation,”] Ukrainian Parliament, Accessed July 18, 2019, http://w1.c1.rada.gov(.)ua/pls/site2/p_fractions.
[5] Nataliya Bugayova, “Russia in Review: Exploiting Transition in Ukraine,” Institute for the Study of War, July 12, 2019, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2019/07/russia-in-review-exploiting-transition.html.
[6] Natalia Lebed, “What Does Zelensky’s Plan to Purge Ukraine’s Officials Mean?” 112 Ukraine, July 18, 2019, https://112(.)international/ukraine-top-news/what-does-zelenskys-plan-to-purge-ukraine-officials-mean-41817.html.
[7] Peter Dickinson, “Rise of the Zelennials: Ukraine’s Parliamentary Elections Signal Generational Shift,” Atlantic Council, July 16, 2019, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/rise-of-the-zelennials-ukraine-s-parliamentary-election-signals-generational-shift; Jonah Fisher, “Volodymyr Zelensky: Why Ukraine’s New President Needs Second Election Win,” BBC, July 16, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48853747.
[8] [“Tymoshenko Stated that the Fatherland Party Will Not Be Opposition to the Current Government,”] UNIAN, June 10, 2019, https://www.unian(.)ua/politics/10581633-timoshenko-zapevnila-shcho-batkivshchina-ne-bude-v-opoziciji-do-chinnoji-vladi.html; “Batkivshchyna Willing to Set Up Coalition with Zelensky’s Party”, Interfax, June 10, 2019, https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/batkivshchyna-willing-to-set-up-coalition-with-zelenskiys-party.html.
[9] Peter Dickinson, “Rise of the Zelennials: Ukraine’s Parliamentary Elections Signal Generational Shift,” Atlantic Council, July 16, 2019, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/rise-of-the-zelennials-ukraine-s-parliamentary-election-signals-generational-shift; Molly Montgomery, “In Ukraine’s Parliamentary Elections, President Zelensky’s Party Is Likely to Dominate,” Brookings, July 15, 2019, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/07/15/in-ukraines-parliamentary-elections-president-zelenskiys-party-is-likely-to-dominate/.
[10] [“Vakarchuk: New Party List Will Not Have Acting Deputies,”] Ukrainskaya Pravda, July 19, 2019, https://www.pravda(.)com.ua/news/2019/05/19/7215497/.
[11] Nataliya Bugayova, “Ukraine’s New President: The Stakes for Ukraine and the West,” Institute for the Study of War, April 22, 2019, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2019/04/ukraines-new-president-stakes-for.html; Nataliya Bugayova, “Russia in Review: Exploiting Transition in Ukraine,” Institute for the Study of War, July 12, 2019, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2019/07/russia-in-review-exploiting-transition.html.
[12] Nataliya Bugayova, “Ukraine’s New President: The Stakes for Ukraine and the West,” Institute for the Study of War, April 22, 2019, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2019/04/ukraines-new-president-stakes-for.html.