By the ISW Iraq Team
Iraqi
Shi’a militias in the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) recaptured most of the
populated areas of the Ninewa desert areas, concluding operations in western
Ninewa Province on June 10. The PMU also recaptured al-Baaj, a former safe
haven for ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, on June 4. The PMU will likely
refit and turn their attention towards clearing the rest of the Iraq-Syria
border in Ninewa Province towards al-Qa’im in western Anbar Province. The PMU
push could threaten the U.S.’s ability to operate along the Iraq-Syria border
area by positioning Iranian-backed Iraqi Shi’a militias proximate to U.S. areas
of interest along the Euphrates River Valley. The PMU may also position
significant assets towards the ISIS-held Hawija Pocket to pressure the ISF to
recapture Hawija with the PMU. The PMU’s recent statements about preparing for
Hawija Operations, likely under the Badr Organization-controlled “East Dijla
Operations Command,” suggest that they will allocate forces towards Hawija in
the near future.
The
Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) continue to fight to clear ISIS from western Mosul
and the Old City amid fierce ISIS resistance. Political challenges surrounding
the composition of forces continues to stall the Tal Afar operation, as
Iranian-backed Iraqi Shi’a militias continue to desire a role in clearing the
city, which Turkey and the U.S. oppose. The ISF will likely clear Tal Afar
after recapturing Mosul once the completion of Mosul operations frees up
manpower for additional clearing operations. Meanwhile, the 9th Iraqi Army
Armored Division continued clearing operations west of Mosul, recapturing most
of the ISIS-held towns near Mount Badush and the Badush Dam and Prison areas in
March 2017 and making slow progress towards Tal Afar from the east.
The
map reflects adjustments to the Hawija Pocket control assessment in the March
2017 iteration of the map based on a reevaluation of previous operations; no
forward progress against ISIS has been made in that area since March 2017.
