By Christopher Kozak and ISW Syria Team
The U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) began
operations to clear ISIS from Ar-Raqqa City in Northern
Syria on June 6. This urban combat phase marks the culmination of successful shaping
operations conducted over the last eight months to isolate Ar-Raqqa City under Operation
Euphrates Wrath. These operations included the seizure of the Tabqa
Dam in Western Ar-Raqqa Province on May 10. Ar-Raqqa
City is currently isolated along its three axes with only limited water traffic
to the south across the Euphrates River. The fight for the city will
nonetheless prove difficult. ISIS retains at least
2,500 fighters in the city behind an elaborate system
of berms, tunnels, improvised explosive devices, and other defenses “very
similar” to its posture in Mosul, Iraq. ISIS’s forces are
intermingled with an estimated 50,000
to 100,000 civilians, raising the complexity and
requirements of ongoing clearing operations. ISIS has thus far mounted a kinetic defense, ceding some outlying districts in favor of raids, ambushes, sleeper
cells, and suicide attacks as the group falls back towards the dense urban core
of Ar-Raqqa City. The capability of the SDF – a coalition of irregular forces
dominated by the Syrian Kurdish YPG – to sustain its offensive and overcome
these challenges remains doubtful despite expansive support from the U.S.
Anti-ISIS Coalition.
The campaign for Ar-Raqqa City also faces significant challenges beyond
the urban fight. Continued U.S. support to the YPG risks alienating local Sunni
Arabs whose support will be required to secure and govern the city over the
long term against the threat posed by ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and other Salafi-Jihadist
groups. The local population’s long-standing ethnic
and political grievances will not be
addressed by the participation of Sunni Arabs in the Syrian Arab Coalition
(SAC) or Raqqa Civilian
Council – both of which locals view as mere puppets of
the YPG in Northern Syria. The decision to back the YPG in Ar-Raqqa City also furthers
a widening divide between the U.S. and Turkey in Syria. Turkey views with deep
suspicion the institutional links between the YPG and the Kurdistan Workers’
Party (PKK), a designated Foreign Terrorist Organization that is currently
waging an active insurgency in Southern Turkey. Turkish President Recep Erdogan
mounted a failed
lobbying campaign to convince both U.S.
President Donald Trump and former U.S. President Barack Obama to halt their support
for the SDF in Northern Syria in favor of opposition groups backed by Turkey.
Turkey retains the capability to launch a major cross-border
intervention against the YPG along the Syrian-Turkish Border
- particularly at the border town of Tel Abyad in Northern Ar-Raqqa Province.
Turkey nonetheless will likely eschew
any intervention over the near term and
instead hope that the YPG weakens itself through a sustained engagement in
Ar-Raqqa City. The Russo-Iranian Coalition also remains poised to exploit any
setbacks suffered by the SDF in Ar-Raqqa City. Forces loyal to Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad advanced into regions directly abutting the SDF in Tabqa in Western Ar-Raqqa
Province on June 13. The U.S. later shot
down a Syrian Arab Air Force fighter jet after the
aircraft dropped munitions near positions held by the SDF near Tabqa on June
18. Russia, Iran, and Assad likely intend to block further gains by the SDF
near Ar-Raqqa City as part of a wider effort to constrain the U.S. Anti-ISIS
Coalition in Eastern Syria that began in May 2017.
ISIS ultimately will not suffer a fatal blow in Ar-Raqqa City. Intelligence
officials and local activists report that the group has already relocated the majority of its leadership, media, chemical
weapons, and external
attack cells south of Ar-Raqqa City to the town of
Mayadin in Deir ez-Zour Province in Eastern Syria. The SDF and U.S. Anti-ISIS
Coalition as well as the Russo-Iranian Coalition both cannot easily access this
terrain – located deep along the Euphrates River Valley – with their current
force posture. ISIS stands to retain safe haven for the indefinite future
despite the loss of its ‘de facto’ capital. The fall of Ar-Raqqa City will be
symbolic – but it will not be decisive.
