By Christopher Kozak with Genevieve Casagrande
Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad is within two miles of besieging over 200,000
civilians in Aleppo City. Pro-regime forces established
fire control over the primary ground line of communication into
opposition-held districts of Aleppo City on July 8 after seizing a key
hill overlooking the Castello
Highway north of the city. Regime forces including the elite Syrian Arab
Army Republican Guard
later launched an offensive
in the Khalidiyah
Industrial District of Northern Aleppo City on July 12, advancing from the
south towards the Castello Road. The advances mark the latest high-water mark
in a multi-phase
campaign to encircle and besiege Syria’s largest urban center, an effort
that began in October 2015 with support from Russian airpower and Iranian
ground reinforcement. The Assad regime has long relied upon siege-and-starve
tactics in order to force the submission of opposition pockets throughout
the Syrian Civil War. The threat of a looming siege in Aleppo has already begun
to impact conditions in neighborhoods across the city. The price of staple
foods such as flour and rice reportedly more
than tripled over the past few days as municipal leaders implemented
mandatory rationing and fell back upon prepared stockpiles of supplies. The UN
Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) warned
on July 13 that humanitarian agencies only have enough assistance in position
to provide one month of food for 145,000 out of an estimated 200,000 to 300,000
civilians living in opposition-held parts of Aleppo City.
A successful
siege would constitute a serious blow to the non-jihadist
opposition and would ensure the further radicalization of the Syrian
opposition in northwestern Syria. Aleppo City has remained the priority effort
for Russia and Iran in Syria. The regime and its allies will likely leverage
the siege to secure meaningful political concessions from the international
community. An anonymous source quoted by Al-Rai
in Kuwait claimed that Russia, Syria, and Iran agreed
as early as June 10 to close the supply line into Aleppo City and thereby
impose a ceasefire by force as the first step towards political negotiations
that favor the regime. If true, this vision appears close to becoming a reality
– particularly given recent steps towards a limited
military partnership between the U.S. and Russia in Syria. The Syrian Sunni
population will not accept a negotiation that allows President Assad to remain
in power. Political negotiations that fail to address the legitimate grievances
of Syrian Sunnis will only strengthen the hand of irreconcilable groups such as
ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra at the expense of acceptable opposition groups. The siege
of Aleppo City thus does not represent the beginning of the end of the Syrian
Civil War, but rather the driver of a new, deadlier phase of long-term disorder
in the Middle East.