By: Christopher Kozak
Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad and his allies in Moscow and Tehran are continuing to
complete the encirclement of Aleppo City despite an ostensible ‘cessation of
hostilities’ that began on February 27, 2016. Russia resumed
its air campaign against the opposition on February 28 following a one day
hiatus, concentrating its strikes against the opposition-held northwestern
suburbs of Aleppo City. Russia continued to target both Syrian Al Qaeda
affiliate Jabhat al Nusra and moderate opposition groups indiscriminately
despite an international agreement prohibiting strikes on non-terrorist
factions. At the same time, pro-regime forces and their local partners continued
to mount attacks aimed at securing favorable terrain in advance of future
operations in Aleppo Province as previously
forecast by ISW. The
siege of Aleppo City – Syria’s largest urban center and commercial capital –
would solidify the favorable position currently held by President Assad while sparking
a humanitarian crisis that forces regional backers of the opposition to
consider intensified interventions in the conflict.
The regime and
its allies have gained terrain around Aleppo City in recent weeks. The regime
has leveraged a deepening partnership with the Syrian Kurdish YPG in order to
pressure the only remaining ground line of communication (GLOC) to
opposition-held Aleppo City. Pro-regime forces launched a failed attack from
YPG-held territory against the villages of Shaykh
Aqil and Qabtian
al-Jabal northwest of Aleppo City on February 26, likely in an attempt to
secure terrain that would form the outer cordon of an eventual encirclement of
the city. The YPG later seized
the Castillo Hill in the Sheikh
Maqsoud District of Aleppo City on March 1 following clashes with Jabhat al
Nusra and allied fighters, securing key high ground adjacent to the last
remaining opposition supply route into the city. This advance suggests that the
regime may intend to work with the YPG in order to close the
four-kilometer-long gap required to isolate the opposition-held districts of
Aleppo City. The Syrian Kurds previously engaged in similar battlefield
coordination with pro-regime forces in early February in order to sever the primary
opposition supply route between Aleppo City and Turkey. These gains will
tend to drive the opposition closer to Jabhat al Nusra and other irreconcilable
actors, further limiting the pool of local partners available to the U.S.
The regime and
its allies have sought to portray their actions as legitimate due to the
battlefield presence of Jabhat al Nusra in some of these regions. These acts of
aggression nonetheless threaten the long-term survivability of the wider
opposition in Aleppo City. Riyad Hijab – the head of the opposition High
Negotiations Committee – warned on March 3 that the ceasefire stood on the verge
of collapse, stressing that “the regime and its allies continue to violate
the truce and launch operations to gain more ground” at the expense of the
opposition. The regime and its allies ultimately remain willing to secure
additional battlefield gains rather than demonstrate any signs of goodwill in
advance of the Geneva Negotiations scheduled
to resume on March 9. The current ‘cessation of hostilities’ thus stands to
mark only a lull in the ongoing conflict that provides the regime and its
allies with an opportunity to replenish and refit their forces ahead of a
renewed offensive that besieges Aleppo City and decisively shatters the primary
nexus of opposition strength in Northern Syria.
