By Genevieve Casagrande
Russian airstrikes continue to
target mainstream elements of the Syrian armed opposition, despite the ongoing
cessation of hostilities agreement. The Syrian
Observatory for Human Rights reported that the level of violence in the country has decreased
by ninety percent
since the onset of the agreement on February 27. Pro-regime forces supported by Russian airstrikes nevertheless
continued operations
to clear opposition-held
terrain in Latakia Province in an effort to buffer the regime’s coastal
stronghold. Jaysh al-Nasr, a coalition of
FSA-affiliated opposition factions that includes prominent U.S.-backed TOW
anti-tank missile recipients, reported Russian airstrikes near the opposition’s frontlines with the regime in the al-Ghab
Plain, which lies on Latakia’s eastern border. Russian warplanes also conducted
limited strikes against the armed opposition in other areas of western Syria from February 29 - March 7,
including the first reported Russian airstrikes in Damascus Province since the
cessation of hostilities agreement began. The likely continuation of limited Russian
airstrikes against mainstream elements of the opposition ultimately threatens
the sustainability of any ceasefire agreement and the outcome of upcoming
negotiations between the regime and the opposition in Geneva, currently
scheduled to resume on March 14. The opposition High Negotiations Committee (HNC)
continues to report Russian and regime violations of the cessation of
hostilities agreement, which included a total of 90 airstrikes carried out by Russian and regime warplanes as of March 4. The
HNC has yet to make a decision regarding its attendance of the talks. Prominent
HNC member Riad Nassan Agha stated on March 8 that their “inclination
is to go,” but remains dependent upon the degree to which the regime and
its allies maintain the cessation of hostilities.
Russia’s decrease in
airstrikes against the armed opposition in western Syria has likely allowed
Russian air operations to increase support to the regime’s limited operations
against ISIS. Russian air operations have notably decreased in areas such as
Aleppo, where heavy strikes have been maintained for the first five months of
Russia’s air campaign. Russian airstrikes concentrated against ISIS’s positions
in and around Palmyra in central Homs Province amidst a concerted
regime effort to breach the town on March 7. Regime ground operations in
Palmyra were ultimately unsuccessful, highlighting the regime’s continued
limitations in combating ISIS as the regime and its allies remain preoccupied with
the defeat of the Syrian armed opposition.
The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties.
High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated both by official government statements reported through credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.
Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain disinformation.
